Can Roberto Martínez’s men respond to their blip against Georgia? We look ahead to Monday’s last-16 clash at Euro 2024 with our Portugal vs Slovenia prediction and preview.
Portugal vs Slovenia Stats: The Key Insights
- Portugal are big favourites against Slovenia, winning 65.4% of pre-match simulations according to the Opta supercomputer.
- Slovenia will play their first-ever match in the knockout stages at a major tournament (World Cup/Euros).
- Cristiano Ronaldo hasn’t scored in any of his last seven appearances for Portugal at major international tournaments, his longest such drought.
Portugal may have topped Group F at Euro 2024 but Roberto Martínez will still want more from his side when they meet Slovenia for their last-16 clash on Monday in Frankfurt.
The Seleção breezed through their qualifying pool as group winners, defeating Czech Republic 2-1 and Turkey 3-0 before a concerning slump on Matchday 3 against Georgia.
This UEFA tournament in Germany has already thrown up numerous surprises heading into the knockout rounds, no more so than Georgia’s 2-0 victory over Portugal on Wednesday. Georges Mikautadze teed up Khvicha Kvaratskhelia’s early opener before himself coolly converting from the penalty spot in the second half at Arena AufSchalke.
That victory marked Georgia’s first-ever win at a major tournament and a maiden place in the knockout stages for Willy Sagnol’s men, while ending Portugal’s 12-match winning streak in competitive action.
Martínez will still be confident, however, as Portugal haven’t lost back-to-back competitive games since Euro 2008 when a 2-0 group-stage defeat to Switzerland followed a 3-2 quarter-final loss against Germany. Portugal also currently hold the record for the biggest margin of victory in a round-of-16 game at a major tournament, hammering Switzerland 6-1 at the FIFA World Cup in 2022. Yet their knockout form has been on a downward spiral.
Since pipping France to the Euro 2016 title in extra-time, Portugal have lost three of their four games in the knockout stages at major tournaments (W1).
That concerning record and the woeful returns of star striker Cristiano Ronaldo leaves Martínez with considerations to ponder. Indeed, Ronaldo hasn’t scored in any of his last seven appearances for Portugal at major tournaments, his longest such drought across the European Championship and World Cup.
The five-time Ballon d’Or winner has had 19 shots across the two competitions since last scoring against Ghana at the 2022 World Cup, so Ronaldo can hardly blame the service received from his Portuguese teammates.
Vitinha has been one of those teammates to catch the eye, completing more line-breaking passes (29) than any other Portugal player at this tournament. His pass completion rate under high pressure is also the best of any player for his country (90% – min. 50 attempted).
Slovenia coach Matjaž Kek will likely task Adam Gnezda Cerin with stopping the creative Vitinha on Monday. The midfielder made more high-intensity pressures (196) than any other player in the group stage, while only Georgia’s Giorgi Kochorashvili (161) made more specifically in the defensive half than Gnezda Cerin (148).
Another resolute defensive showing can be expected in Frankfurt, too, as Slovenia have averaged just 32% of the ball so far in this competition. Only two sides have previously progressed to the Euros knockouts with a lower possession percentage; Iceland in 2016 (29%) and Sweden four years later (30%).
Though Kek may rely on Gnezda Cerin and his resilient defence further back, Slovenia need more from their forward pair. Andraz Sporar and Benjamin Sesko started all three Group C games as a duo up top, although they’re yet to score from a combined 12 shots between them (seven by Sporar and five by Sesko).
Whether that pair can deliver will have a large say on the outcome of Slovenia’s first-ever match in the knockout stages at a major tournament. By contrast, this will be Portugal’s 26th such match, and one many expect them to triumph in.
Portugal vs Slovenia Head-to-Head
Portugal may have lost three of their last four knockout games but they will fancy their chances against a Slovenia side that finished third in Group C, behind second-placed Denmark due to their disciplinary record.
However, Martínez has little to go off in terms of previous experience as this will be just the second-ever meeting between Portugal and Slovenia.
Their previous clash came back in March this year, a 2-0 friendly victory for Slovenia in Ljubljana as Gnezda Cerin and Timi Max Elsnik were on target. That was Portugal’s last defeat before the Georgia loss on Wednesday.
Portugal vs Slovenia Prediction
The Opta supercomputer backs Portugal as the favourites for this one, with Martínez’s side triumphing in a dominant 67.8% of 10,000 pre-match simulations.
Slovenia have just a 13.4% chance of victory in 90 minutes, while the draw was forecast more often in 18.8% of the same data-led sims.
Going deeper into Opta’s tournament predictions, Portugal are still the fifth favourites for Euros glory with an 8.1% likelihood. England remain the frontrunners at 24%, ahead of Spain (20.1%), Germany (17.2%) and France (11.5%).
Portugal vs Slovenia Squads
Portugal
Diogo Costa, José Sá, Rui Patrício, António Silva, Danilo Pereira, Diogo Dalot, Gonçalo Inácio, João Cancelo, Nélson Semedo, Nuno Mendes, Pepe, Rúben Dias, Bruno Fernandes, João Neves, João Palhinha, Matheus Nunes, Rúben Neves, Vitinha, Bernardo Silva, Cristiano Ronaldo, Diogo Jota, Francisco Conceição, Gonçalo Ramos, João Félix, Pedro Neto, Rafael Leão.
Head coach: Roberto Martínez
Slovenia
Igor Vekic, Jan Oblak, Vid Belec, David Brekalo, Erik Janza, Jaka Bijol, Jure Balkovec, Miha Blazic, Petar Stojanovic, Vanja Drkusic, Zan Karnicnik, Adam Gnezda Cerin, Adrian Zeljkovic, Benjamin Verbic, Jasmin Kurtic, Jon Gorenc Stankovic, Josip Ilicic, Sandi Lovric, Timi Max Elsnik, Tomi Horvat, Andraz Sporar, Benjamin Sesko, Jan Mlakar, Nino Zugelj, Zan Celar, Zan Vipotnik.
Head coach: Matjaž Kek
Portugal vs Slovenia Predicted Lineups
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