Can Julian Nagelsmann’s side reach the last eight of Euro 2024 on home soil? We look ahead to Saturday’s last 16 clash in Dortmund with our Germany vs Denmark prediction and preview.
Germany vs Denmark Stats: The Key Insights
- The Opta supercomputer predicts Germany overcoming Denmark, with the hosts winning 57.3% of pre-match simulations.
- Denmark have lost all five of their previous European Championship matches against host nations, including one against Germany in the 1988 group stage.
- Niclas Füllkrug has scored four goals in six major tournament appearances for Germany, with all games and goals coming as a substitute.
Germany will be out to banish last-16 demons when they meet Denmark in Dortmund for Saturday’s Euro 2024 knockout clash.
Julian Nagelsmann’s side breezed into the knockout stages, hammering Scotland 5-1 and Hungary 3-0, but they needed some late Niclas Füllkrug heroics to seal top spot in Group A.
Dan Ndoye’s first-half finish for Switzerland seemed set to send his side through as group winners, only for Füllkrug’s stoppage-time header to snatch a 1-1 draw and pole position from their qualifying pool.
Their reward will be a meeting with Denmark in the first knockout round, where Germany fell at Euro 2020 after a 2-0 defeat to England in the last 16 at Wembley Stadium.
In fact, Germany’s last two knockout defeats in this tournament have ended in 2-0 losses, with the other coming in the Euro 2016 semi-finals against hosts France.
Yet history is on Germany’s side for this one. The two teams hosting a Euros round-of-16 match have both won, with France beating the Republic of Ireland in 2016 in Lyon and England’s aforementioned victory four years later.
Excluding penalty shootouts, host nations have also only lost two of their last 14 knockout matches (W7 D5), both in the final and both 1-0 defeats – Portugal in 2004 versus Greece and France in extra-time against Portugal in 2016.
Questions remain for Nagelsmann despite easing through a routine group-stage challenge, with a decision needed on whether to start striker Füllkrug or operate with Kai Havertz as a makeshift forward.
Füllkrug has scored four goals in six major tournament appearances for Germany, with all his appearances and goals coming as a substitute, suggesting another role from the bench could be more fruitful.
Indeed, among all European players to play at least 100 minutes at the FIFA World Cup and Euros combined, only Poland’s Ernst Wilimowski (one every 30 minutes) has a better minutes-per-goal ratio than Füllkrug, who averages a strike every 35 minutes on average.
One thing is for sure, however, with Toni Kroos set to star in midfield in what he will hope isn’t his last appearance of an illustrious career.
Kroos completed 324 passes in the group stages of this edition, the most ever by a player in a single group stage at the European Championship. Among all players to play 1,000+ minutes in the competition since 1980, Kroos has completed the most passes per 90 minutes of any player (92).
Yet Denmark have their own midfield maestro in Christian Eriksen.
The Manchester United man was directly involved in 55% of Denmark’s 42 shots, attempting 10 and creating the chance for a further 13 in Group C. He is the first Dane to register both 10+ shots and 10+ chances created at a single edition of a major tournament (World Cup/Euros).
Despite the creative Eriksen shining, Denmark were fortunate to finish second in their group, behind England and ahead of Slovenia after a bizarre tie-breaking decision.
Kasper Hjulmand’s side and Slovenia finished on three points apiece, with the same goal difference and two goals scored and conceded. However, a booking for Slovenia coach Milivoje Novakovic earlier in the tournament contributed to their total of seven yellow cards to Denmark’s six, setting up this last-16 clash.
That ruling aside, Denmark have reached the knockout stages of the European Championship in consecutive editions for the first time in their history, having reached the semi-final at Euro 2020 before extra-time defeat to England.
The Danes have only won three of their nine knockout matches in the finals (D2 L4), two of which were en route to the semi-final at the last edition, and their record at major tournaments still leaves a lot for Hjulmand to desire.
Denmark have only won three of their last 15 matches at major tournaments, drawing seven and losing five. They are winless in their last seven such games (D4 L3), drawing all three of their group games at this competition, leaving Germany as the likely victors in Dortmund.
Germany vs Denmark Head-to-Head
There appears to be nothing to split these two sides in terms of head-to-head records, with both winning two of four previous meetings at major tournaments.
The pair have also shared the spoils in three of their last four meetings across all competitions, which is more draws than the first 24 encounters between the two sides beforehand (2). Germany won the other 2-1 at Euro 2012.
However, the only previous knockout stage tie between the two nations came in the Euro 1992 final as Denmark triumphed 2-0.
Denmark have lost all five of their previous European Championship matches against host nations, including one against Germany in the 1988 group stage and their elimination to England in 2021.
Germany vs Denmark Prediction
Germany are backed by the Opta supercomputer to the make the last eight, with the Euro 2024 hosts winning 57.3% of 10,000 pre-match simulations against Denmark.
The same data-led sims only saw Denmark triumph in 18.8%, with the draw – sending the tie to extra-time – was forecast more often in 23%.
Nagelsmann’s side remain the third favourites to win the entire tournament in Opta’s predictions, lifting the trophy in 15.8% of simulations. England (20.0%) and Spain (17.2%) are the only two sides more likely to do so.
Germany vs Denmark Squads
Germany
Manuel Neuer, Marc-André ter Stegen, Oliver Baumann, Antonio Rüdiger, Benjamin Henrichs, David Raum, Jonathan Tah, Joshua Kimmich, Maximilian Mittelstädt, Nico Schlotterbeck, Robin Koch, Waldemar Anton, Aleksandar Pavlovic, Chris Führich, Florian Wirtz, Ilkay Gündogan, Jamal Musiala, Leroy Sané, Pascal Groß, Robert Andrich, Toni Kroos, Deniz Undav, Kai Havertz, Maximilian Beier, Niclas Füllkrug, Thomas Müller.
Head coach: Julian Nagelsmann
Denmark
Frederik Rønnow, Kasper Schmeichel, Mads Hermansen, Alexander Bah, Andreas Christensen, Jannik Vestergaard, Joachim Andersen, Joakim Mæhle, Rasmus Kristensen, Simon Kjær, Victor Kristiansen, Zanka, Christian Eriksen, Christian Nørgaard, Mathias Jensen, Mikkel Damsgaard, Morten Hjulmand, Pierre-Emile Højbjerg, Thomas Delaney, Anders Dreyer, Andreas Skov Olsen, Jacob Bruun Larsen, Jonas Wind, Kasper Dolberg, Rasmus Højlund, Yussuf Poulsen.
Head coach: Kasper Hjulmand
Germany vs Denmark Predicted Lineups
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