Editor’s Note: This article was originally published ahead of the tournament. However, the interactive data tables at the top of the page contain live and updating predictions.
2024 French Open Women’s Predictions:
2024 French Open Men’s Predictions:
The second grand slam of the year is here and once again it is littered with storylines.
World No. 1s, Iga Swiatek and Novak Djokovic, are both looking to defend their titles and earn their fourth Roland Garros crown. The King of Clay, Rafael Nadal, is bowing out, and Jannik Sinner is looking to rise to men’s world No. 1.
We turn to the Opta supercomputer to find out its 2024 French Open predictions as well as its ranking predictions come the end of the tournament.
Who Will Win the 2024 French Open? The Quick Hits
- Defending champ Swiatek (20%) is the big favourite to win on the women’s draw.
- Sinner (13%) is the favourite on the men’s draw.
- Sinner is looking to dethrone Djokovic as world No. 1. The Italian has an 87% likelihood of rising to rank No. 1 in the ATP rankings at the end of the event.
The Favourites to Win the French Open
Women’s Draw
To probably nobody’s surprise, Swiatek is the big favourite to win the women’s side of the draw. The Pole superstar is given a 20% likelihood of winning the French Open by the Opta supercomputer.
Swiatek has dominated the clay season so far, winning back-to-back titles in Madrid and Rome and is on a 12-match winning streak.
Elena Rybakina is the second favourite to win with our model, the supercomputer giving her a 9% chance of winning Roland Garros. The world No. 4 comes into this tournament fresh off the back of winning a clay title in Stuttgart.
Aryna Sabalenka (7%) comes next. She’s had a productive 2024 so far, winning her second grand slam in Australia and more recently finishing as a finalist in the Madrid and Italian Open, where she lost both finals to Swiatek. It is clear that the world No. 2 is a big threat to anyone she comes up against.
World No. 3 Coco Gauff and No. 11 Collins are two other players in great form this season and could enjoy deep runs. Both have a 5% probability of winning the event.
Men’s Draw
On the men’s side of the draw, world No. 2 Jannik Sinner is the model’s favourite to win the title at 13%. Even though the Italian is coming back from an injury, he’s still been one of the top players on tour this year and has three titles to his name in 2024, including his first grand slam win at the Australian Open.
The world No. 1 and defending champion, Novak Djokovic, is a close second in the model’s projections (10%). Young superstar Carlos Alcaraz is third favourite to win (6%).
But there’s a good chance the winner doesn’t come from those top three. Behind them are a group of contenders who are enjoying strong clay seasons so far: Casper Ruud (4%) won the ATP 500 tournament in Barcelona, Stefanos Tsitsipas (4%) won the Masters 1000 in Monte Carlo, Andrey Rublev (3%) won the Masters 1000 in Madrid, and Alexander Zverev (4.6%) won the most recent Masters 1000 in Rome.
Farewell to the King of Clay
The fourteen-time Roland Garros champion will play his favourite tournament one last time, in the hopes of securing a 15th Roland Garros and 23rd grand slam title.
His road to the final will be a tough one, though, particularly as he faces world No. 4 Zverev in the first round. Their last encounter came two years ago, in the French Open semi-final, where Nadal won after Zverev retired in the second set due to an on-court injury. Nadal then went on to win his 14th French Open in the final against Ruud.
Should he pass his first round test, Nadal’s route then most likely looks like the below:
Tour Ranking Predictions
Prize money and a slice of history isn’t the only thing these players are competing for, however, with rankings points also up for grabs.
Predicting each players’ rankings points from the tournament, as well as how that corresponds to their tour rank after the competition, is something the supercomputer can also do.
Here’s what it says for the top 20 players in the world on the WTA and ATP tours (we’ll ignore players not participating in this year’s tournament).
Women’s Rankings
On the women’s side, we will not be seeing a new world No. 1 after the French Open. Not much movement is expected among the top four players but lots of changes could happen beyond fifth position.
Men’s Rankings
The men’s rankings could see a new world No. 1 as Sinner looks to dethrone Djokovic.
Sinner, who lost in the second round in Paris last year, has an 87% likelihood of becoming No. 1 after the tournament finishes. Djokovic, who is defending 2000 points this year, could fall as low as No. 3 in the world (9.4% likelihood).
Ruud has an 86% probability of dropping outside of the top 10 while Karen Khachanov is predicted to fall outside the top 20 (88%).
How Our Tournament Simulator Works:
Our tournament projection model simulates the outcome of the tournament 10,000 times, estimating every player’s likelihood to get through each round of the draw based on their skill strength, where they are in the draw and the skill of the potential opponents they could face.
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