Jürgen Klopp’s Reds look to get their Premier League title bid back on track at Craven Cottage. We look ahead to Sunday’s late kick-off with our Fulham vs Liverpool prediction and preview.
Fulham vs Liverpool Stats: The Quick Hits
- The Opta supercomputer gives Liverpool a 53.1% chance of putting their recent stumbles behind them with a win over Fulham at Craven Cottage on Sunday.
- Liverpool are unbeaten in their last five away Premier League matches against Fulham, but they are without a clean sheet in eight league trips to Craven Cottage since April 2009.
- Andreas Pereira scored twice in Fulham’s 2-0 win at West Ham last week, having only netted once in his previous 34 Premier League games. He has 20 goal involvements in the Premier League since the start of last season, more than any other Fulham player.
Match Preview
For all the talk of Liverpool replicating the famous 2019 comeback against Barcelona, their bid to overturn a three-goal deficit in their UEFA Europa League quarter-final tie with Atalanta fell flat; the Reds never seriously threatening a rescue act in Thursday’s 1-0 second-leg victory in Bergamo.
With their European hopes dashed, Liverpool are facing up to the prospect of February’s EFL Cup triumph being the sum of their efforts in Jürgen Klopp’s final season at the helm. If they are to resurrect their Premier League title bid, they surely cannot afford to slip up at Fulham on Sunday.
With Manchester City not in Premier League action this weekend due to their involvement in the FA Cup semi-finals, Liverpool know a victory would at least see them leapfrog Pep Guardiola’s champions for the time being, but the sense is they may have to be perfect from here on out.
Their finishing must improve if they are to keep themselves in contention, with wastefulness creeping into their game lately. In last Sunday’s 1-0 defeat to Crystal Palace, the Reds’ figure of 2.81 expected goals (xG) was the most by a Premier League team who failed to score since Newcastle United racked up 2.83 xG in a goalless draw with Palace in September 2022.
Only Everton (-9.54) have underperformed their xG figures by a greater margin than Liverpool (-3.87) in the Premier League since the turn of the year, and the Reds have hit the woodwork more often than any other club over the course of the season.
Mohamed Salah, so often the man Liverpool rely on, has come in for criticism lately and spurned a good chance to drag his team within one on Thursday, despite having already dispatched a penalty to put them 1-0 up in Italy.
Salah has not been immune from their drop-off, posting a shot conversion rate of just 10.7% (three goals from 28 shots) in the Premier League since returning from an injury sustained at the Africa Cup of Nations, having converted 21.5% of his efforts in 2023-24 before the tournament (14 goals from 65 shots).
Salah has been a reliable source of chances for his teammates, though, with only Martin Ødegaard (68) and Bruno Fernandes (59) creating more chances from open play in the Premier League this term than his 58.
Klopp has been boosted by the returns of Alisson and Trent Alexander-Arnold to his lineup in the last week, though Conor Bradley is out until May with a ligament injury. The German has decisions to make in attack, with Darwin Núñez and the also recently returned Diogo Jota eyeing starts after only featuring as substitutes on Thursday.
Fulham, meanwhile, are looking to follow up last week’s 2-0 victory at West Ham, which halted a two-game losing run and dragged them within two points of the top half ahead of Matchday 34.
Marco Silva’s men produced an impressive attacking display at London Stadium, with their 3.29 xG and 10 shots on target both team-high tallies in a Premier League game this season. It was just the third time on record (since 2003-04) that Fulham had attempted 10 or more shots on target in an away Premier League match, also doing so against Man City in April 2008 and Crystal Palace in December 2022.
Andreas Pereira’s two close-range finishes made the difference, coming after he had scored just one goal in his previous 34 Premier League appearances. He has four goal contributions in his last four league games (two goals, two assists), and his total of 20 involvements since the start of last season (seven goals, 13 assists) is the most of any Fulham player since their top-flight return.
With Silva having a fully fit squad to pick from, Pereira will likely join Alex Iwobi and Willian in support of the Premier League’s Player of the Month for March, Rodrigo Muniz. The Brazilian has failed to score in his three Premier League games in April, though, his longest drought since scoring his first goal in the competition against Burnley on 3 February.
Silva will hope his striker returns to form to help him end his own hoodoo against Liverpool. Since winning his first managerial meeting with the Reds with Hull City in February 2017, Silva is winless in nine against them with Watford, Everton and Fulham in all competitions (four draws, five losses).
Fulham vs Liverpool Head-to-Head
Sunday’s game will be the fourth between Fulham and Liverpool this season. The Reds were 3-2 down with 87 minutes played in December’s return fixture at Anfield, only for late goals from Wataru Endō and Alexander-Arnold to hand them a dramatic 4-3 win.
Liverpool then overcame Fulham in January’s EFL Cup semi-finals, with Curtis Jones and Cody Gakpo scoring in a 2-1 first-leg win at Anfield before Luis Díaz and Issa Diop netted in a 1-1 draw in west London.
Fulham have won just one of their last 11 Premier League games against the Reds (two draws, eight defeats), with that lone victory coming by a 1-0 scoreline at an empty Anfield in March 2021.
However, Liverpool haven’t always had things all their own way at Craven Cottage, including in an entertaining 2-2 draw on the ground on the opening matchday of the 2022-23 campaign.
Though they are unbeaten in their last five away Premier League games against Fulham (three wins, two draws), Liverpool haven’t kept a clean sheet in any of their last eight league visits to the Cottage, since a 1-0 win in April 2009.
Recent Form
Following their 1-0 loss to Palace last week, Liverpool are looking to avoid losing consecutive Premier League games for the first time since April 2023 (against Bournemouth and Man City).
The Reds have lost on two of their five Premier League trips to London this season (two wins, one draw), going down to both Tottenham (2-1) and Arsenal (3-1). They last lost more games in the capital within a single campaign in 2014-15 (three), when they finished sixth under Brendan Rodgers.
Fulham, meanwhile, have been impressive at home this season. Since losing 3-0 to Brentford in their first home Premier League game of 2023-24, they have conceded just 13 goals in 15 matches at Craven Cottage in the competition (0.9 per game).
They have kept six clean sheets on their own turf in the Premier League this term, last keeping more in a single campaign when they finished eighth in 2010-11 (nine).
Overall, however, Silva’s men have only won one of their last four league games (one draw, two defeats), having won four of their previous six to give themselves a faint hope of European qualification (two defeats).
Global Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system that assigns an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off on Sunday, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
Fulham vs Liverpool Predicted Lineups
Fulham vs Liverpool Prediction
Though Fulham don’t make things easy for visitors to the Cottage, the Opta supercomputer is backing Liverpool to get their campaign back on track with three points on Sunday.
Across 10,000 pre-match simulations conducted by the supercomputer, the Reds were victorious in 53.2%, with Fulham triumphant in 20.5% of scenarios and 26.3% seeing the points shared.
According to the supercomputer’s season predictions, Liverpool enter the weekend with an 11.7% chance of winning the title, making them third favourites behind City (71.3%) and Arsenal (17%).
Fulham, meanwhile, finish 12th in a league-high 32.9% of scenarios, possessing a 12.4% chance of a top-half finish.
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