With the help of our AI-powered supercomputer, we provide our Premier League match predictions for every match in each gameweek.
The Premier League season in 2023-24 is shaping up to be one of the best in recent memory.
We have a title race that is going all the way, with defending champions Manchester City the team to beat and Arsenal pushing them until the end.
There is set to be an equally intense battle to avoid relegation, with playing in the Premier League now more valuable financially than ever before.
Our AI-powered Opta supercomputer has been making its match picks for every fixture over the course of a hugely exciting season.
Read on as Opta Analyst provides its Premier League predictions, and be sure to check back here every week.
Matchday 36
The Opta supercomputer has delivered its latest selection of match predictions ahead of a full weekend of Premier League football.
Our predictive model has made its picks for the latest round of matches in what remains a crucial period of the season at both ends of the league table, with just one point separating the top two teams in the standings.
The system enjoyed a strong round with its picks in the last matchweek, as favourites Arsenal, Manchester City and Newcastle United all emerged triumphant. However, surprise draws for Liverpool and Manchester United in their matches with West Ham and Burnley respectively ensured it was not a perfect slate of match predictions.
Matchday 36 will see one match on Friday and five fixtures take place on Saturday, with title contenders Arsenal and Man City both in action.
There are three fixtures on Sunday, including the potential game of the week as under-pressure Liverpool take on Tottenham, who are hoping to chase down Aston Villa in the race for a Champions League spot, before Man Utd travel to play Crystal Palace on Monday.
Ahead of what looks set to be another entertaining group of Premier League fixtures, let’s check out the Opta supercomputer’s match predictions.
Premier League Predictions Matchweek 36: The Quick Hits
- The Opta supercomputer overwhelmingly backs Arsenal and Man City to keep their respective title bids on track with victories in MD 36. Pep Guardiola’s champions are the most confident prediction of the week.
- Liverpool are tipped to recover from their recent struggles by defeating Tottenham in a key Premier League clash at Anfield.
- Spurs will hope top-four rivals Aston Villa have a tough trip to Brighton in a match that our model rates as too close to call.
Luton Town and Everton were big relegation rivals not too long ago, but going into their Friday night fixture at Kenilworth Road it is now only the hosts who are scrapping to preserve their top-flight status.
Luton have suffered three straight Premier League defeats at the worst time, but they still retain hope of catching Nottingham Forest above them.
The Toffees, by contrast, come into this game on the back of three straight wins that have secured their safety, but they are winless in nine away Premier League games since beating Burnley in December, a streak they will want to put right here.
The Opta prediction model sees this as one of the closest matches taking place this week, with only the most marginal edge given to Luton at 36.8%. Everton are right behind them at 34.5%, so look out for the draw threat at 28.7%.
Saturday’s action begins with a big game in the title race as Arsenal host Bournemouth in the early kick-off. Having passed a huge test of their credentials by winning last week’s north London derby, the Gunners will again be looking to take advantage of going first to pile the pressure on Manchester City.
Mikel Arteta’s men are strong favourites to overcome the Cherries, winning 70.3% of the Opta supercomputer’s pre-match simulations. Bournemouth are assigned just a 10.3% win probability, with the likelihood of a draw rated at 19.4%.
Arsenal memorably fought back from 2-0 down to beat Bournemouth 3-2 in this exact fixture last season, and they have won all six of the teams’ Premier League meetings at the Emirates Stadium. Only against Stoke City (10/10) do the Gunners possess a better 100% record in home Premier League games.
A slight note of caution, though; since earning their first win of the season in late October, Andoni Iraola’s team have won 45 points from 26 Premier League games (13 wins, six draws, seven defeats), with only the current top four faring better in that time. Still, Arsenal are the second-biggest favourites across the 10 games in Matchday 36.
Brentford (43.6%) go into their home match with Fulham (28.2%) as favourites to secure the three points. Both sides are clear of the relegation drama, with the visitors still having a faint chance of finishing in the top 10.
But to do that they will have to improve on their recent outings against Brentford, who have won five of their last seven matches against Fulham in all competitions.
This London derby could be the game where Ivan Toney ends his goal drought. He hasn’t scored in any of his last nine appearances, his longest run without a league goal since a run of 10 with Peterborough United between February and April 2019.
Five points from three games means there is still hope for Burnley, but they will have their work cut out against a Newcastle team who are finding form towards the end of the season, with three wins in their last four.
Newcastle have scored 74 Premier League goals this season, only netting more in 1993-94 (82), and their record of 2.2 goals-per-game is their most in a top-flight season since 1951-52, when they scored 98 in 42 matches (2.3 per game).
In-form Alexander Isak is gunning for the golden boot – he now has 19 EPL goals this season, including nine in his last eight appearances. He could become only the fifth different Newcastle player to score 20+ goals in a Premier League season, after Alan Shearer (4 times), Andrew Cole (1993-94), Peter Beardsley (1993-94), and Les Ferdinand (1995-96).
At 46.7%, Newcastle are seen as the most likely away team to win this weekend by the Opta supercomputer. But that win probability still gives Burnley a realistic shot at getting something out of the game, with the hosts rated at 25.2% and the draw seen as a decent possibility at 28.1%.
Another away team who are backed this week are Nottingham Forest (45.5%), as they travel to play relegated Sheffield United (26.4%).
The stakes are huge for Forest as they bid to hold off Luton and Burnley below them. They will be comforted by the fact the Blades have conceded 51 goals in their 17 Premier League home games this season. In English top-flight history, only Aston Villa in 1935-36 have ever shipped more at home in a single campaign (56). There’s also the chance that Chris Wilder’s side become just the second team in history to ship 100 or more goals in a Premier League campaign.
But there is huge pressure on Forest, who haven’t kept a clean sheet in any of their last 12 Premier League away games. They have only collected two points from their last seven matches under Nuno Espírito Santo but are given the edge here, albeit not overwhelmingly so.
The most likely winners this week are… you guessed it, Man City. The champions welcome Wolves to the Etihad Stadium for Saturday’s late game, and they are assigned a 71.1% chance of victory. Wolves, whose head coach Gary O’Neil will serve a one-match touchline ban, are assigned just a 9.6% win probability, with the likelihood of a draw rated at 19.3%.
It was Wolves who inflicted Man City’s first defeat of the Premier League season back in September, but they have lost on seven of their last eight league visits to the Etihad, the exception being a 2-0 win under Nuno in 2019-20 – the last campaign in which City failed to win the title.
Pep Guardiola’s side have shown no signs of feeling the pressure thus far, and they are unbeaten in 31 matches across all competitions (25 wins, six draws). Manchester United were the last Premier League team to enjoy a longer run, going 33 without defeat between December and May in 1998-99.
Slightly further down the table, Aston Villa remain in control of a two-horse race for UEFA Champions League qualification, but Unai Emery’s men face a testing trip to Brighton and Hove Albion on Sunday.
While Brighton’s own hopes of European qualification appear to have slipped away, the supercomputer simply cannot split the teams. Both Brighton and Villa are assigned a win probability of 35.7%, with the chances of a draw rated at 28.6%.
Villa will have fond memories of their last meeting with the Seagulls, though, having won September’s reverse fixture 6-1. They have won the teams’ last five Premier League meetings by an aggregate score of 14-3, last recording six straight Premier League victories against an opponent between 2005 and 2010, versus neighbours Birmingham City.
Into Sunday’s fixtures and it has been a season of ups and downs for both Chelsea and West Ham going into their London derby at Stamford Bridge. With 12 wins, four draws and just one defeat from their last 17 home top-flight matches against West Ham, it’s fair to say this is a fixture that Chelsea have dominated.
West Ham manager David Moyes has never won an away Premier League match against Chelsea in 18 attempts (D7 L11), with Mauricio Pochettino set to be the 11th different Blues boss he has faced at Stamford Bridge in that time. The only instance of a manager taking charge of more matches at a venue without winning is Moyes himself in a miserable run at Anfield (19 games).
Our predictive model suggests there could be more woe for Moyes, with Chelsea given a 48.7% chance of victory and West Ham’s hopes rated at just 24.2%. If the Blues do emerge triumphant, they will like their chances of finishing above their local rivals.
It has been a tough few weeks for Liverpool, but the supercomputer thinks they will return to form at home to Tottenham. The Reds are given a 55.5% chance of victory over Spurs, who are down at 19.9% in what is likely to be a key match in determining their hopes of reaching the top four.
Part of the reason the hosts are backed is their fine record in this fixture – Liverpool have lost just one of their last 29 home Premier League matches against Spurs (W19 D9), a 2-0 defeat in May 2011.
Liverpool have been beaten in their last two home games in all competitions, but that is as many losses as they had suffered in their previous 57 combined and our system expects to see their form positively reverting to the mean here. They failed to score in both defeats and the last time Liverpool lost three in a row without reply at Anfield was more than two years ago (March 2021). Jürgen Klopp is likely to have his players fired up for his penultimate home match in charge at the famous ground.
Matchday 36 concludes at Selhurst Park, where Oliver Glasner’s resurgent Crystal Palace face Erik ten Hag’s under-fire Manchester United. The Red Devils are favourites with a 41.7% win probability to Palace’s 29.3%, though Monday’s game has the highest likelihood of a draw from any of these fixtures, at 29.0%.
United have already suffered four Premier League defeats in London this season, going down to Tottenham, Arsenal, West Ham and Chelsea. They have never lost five away league games in the capital within a single campaign before.
They can expect to be tested by Palace, who have won three of five home Premier League games since Glasner took the reins in February (one draw, one defeat), including each of their last two. That is as many victories as they managed in 12 home matches under Roy Hodgson this season (three wins, three draws, six losses), so it should be a competitive battle to round out MD 36.
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