We look ahead to Tuesday’s Euro 2024 play-off final for qualification Path A in Cardiff with our Wales vs Poland prediction and preview.

Wales vs Poland Stats: The Quick Hits

  • Since Wales defeated Poland in their first ever meeting in March 1973, they have gone nine games without a win over them (D2 L7).
  • Wales are now unbeaten in seven – only once have they recorded a longer streak without defeat under Rob Page (nine games between September 2021 and March 2022 – W4 D5).
  • Robert Lewandowski has been directly involved in 24 goals in his last 27 appearances for Poland (16 goals, eight assists), although he’s not scored in any of his three games against Wales to date.

Match Preview

Wales and Poland are one match away from Euro 2024, with this European Championship play-off final deciding one of the last three slots available at the tournament this summer. Whichever nation progresses to the finals via this Path A play-off tie will face a tricky task in Germany as they are dropped into a Group D that already contains France, Netherlands and Austria.

Wales are looking to qualifying for a third consecutive UEFA European Championship tournament, having previously appeared in the 2016 and 2020 editions. Wales have only lost one of their last 15 Euro qualifiers played at the Cardiff City Stadium (W10 D4), so will be confident of making it again.

Poland will need to improve their recent competitive away form if they are to progress to Euro 2024. Since the start of 2023, they have lost three of their four Euro qualifier matches played away from home (W1), suffering defeats to Czechia, Moldova and Albania in that time. They did win their most recent one, however, away to the Faroe Islands back in October (2-0).

Polish success could hinge on the performance of star striker Robert Lewandowski in this game. The Barcelona forward has not scored in any of his three previous games against Wales, though he’s been directly involved in 24 goals in his last 27 appearances for Poland (16 goals, eight assists) and boasts the quality to trouble any defence.

Despite his nation scoring five times against Estonia in Thursday’s 5-1 play-off semi-final win, Lewandowski was unable to find the scoresheet himself. That was despite him attempting a match-high eight shots against an Estonian side that were reduced to 10 men in the 27th minute.

Poland 5-1 Estonia

Wales reached this final after an impressive 4-1 semi-final win against Finland last Thursday. Goals from David Brooks, Neco Williams, Brennan Johnson and Daniel James helped them to victory in this winner-takes-all clash.

Harry Wilson assisted one of the goals in that win, with that his sixth goal involvement in nine Euro 2024 qualifying appearances (three goals, three assists) – the most of any Welsh player in the qualifiers.

Harry Wilson Wales Goals and Assists

Wales vs Poland Head-to-Head

Wales and Poland have faced each other on 10 previous occasions. The only victory for the Dragons came in their first meeting back in March 1973 (2-0) – they’ve gone winless across the nine clashes since then (D2 L7).

Worryingly for Wales ahead of this vital contest, they have lost each of their last six games against Poland (all played between 2001 and 2022); the only other non-British nation they’ve had a longer losing run against is the Netherlands, with 10 straight defeats between 1988 and 2002.

Poland have won each of their last three away games against Wales, all of which have been in competitive action (2-1 in 2001, 3-2 in 2004 and 1-0 in 2022). Indeed, the only other European sides they’ve had a longer winning streak away from home against are San Marino (5) and Finland (two runs of four).

Wales vs Poland Prediction

Wales vs Poland Prediction Euro 2024 Play-Off

The Opta supercomputer suggests this is likely to be a close encounter. It considers Wales to be favourites ahead of kick-off, but not overwhelmingly so.

The Welsh won inside 90 minutes in 40.4% of the 10,000 pre-match simulations, compared to Poland’s 30.8% chance. The contest went to extra-time 28.8% of the time.

Wales vs Poland Squads

Wales: Wayne Hennessey, Danny Ward, Adam Davies, Tom King, Ben Davies, Connor Roberts, Chris Mepham, Joe Roden, Neco Williams, Morgan Fox, Jay Dasilva, Aaron Ramsey, Harry Wilson, Ethan Ampadu, David Brooks, Dylan Levitt, Jordan James, Rubin Colwill, Josh Sheehan, Charlie Savage, Daniel James, Kieffer Moore, Brennan Johnson, Rabbi Matondo, Nathan Broadhead, Liam Cullen.

Head Coach: Rob Page

Poland: Wojciech Szczęsny, Łukasz Skorupski, Marcin Bułka, Paweł Dawidowicz, Tymoteusz Puchacz, Jan Bednarek, Jakub Kiwior, Paweł Bochniewicz, Bartosz Salamon, Bartosz Bereszyński, Sebastian Walukiewicz, Jakub Piotrowski, Jakub Moder, Piotr Zieliński, Kamil Grosicki, Taras Romanczuk, Bartosz Slisz, Przemysław Frankowski, Sebastian Szymański, Nicola Zalewski, Damian Szymański, Paweł Wszołek, Karol Świderski, Robert Lewandowski, Adam Buksa, Krzysztof Piątek.

Head Coach: Michał Probierz

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