Which three teams will complete the lineup for this summer’s European Championship? We look over the Euro 2024 play-off final predictions as served up by the Opta supercomputer.
UEFA Euro 2024 is still three sides short of the full complement of 24 teams for this summer’s tournament. The identity of those final three nations will be decided on Tuesday via a trio of play-off finals.
Wales, Poland, Ukraine, Iceland, Georgia and Greece progressed through the semi-finals in their respective qualification paths and are each one step away from securing a place in Germany.
All three play-off finals will take place as single-leg ties on Tuesday. Here, we preview the three matches with our Opta supercomputer Euro 2024 play-off predictions.
Path A
Wales vs Poland
This was always likely to be the final from Path A, and there never looked to be much danger of a shock from either of the semi-finals once they got started.
Wales thrashed Finland 4-1 and led for all but the first three minutes, with this the first time they’ve scored four or more in a single Euros qualifier since September 2007 (5-2 vs Slovakia).
David Brooks, Neco Williams, Brennan Johnson and Daniel James got Wales’ goals, meaning they’ve now only lost two of their previous 26 qualifiers for major tournaments (Euros and World Cup) at the Cardiff City Stadium.
Poland’s route through the semis was similarly straightforward, particularly after their visitors Estonia had Maksim Pakotski sent off for a second booking just before the half hour. The hosts were already 1-0 up thanks to Przemyslaw Frankowski’s opener and they found another level in the second half, scoring four more before Martin Vetkal’s consolation.
Both teams can expect a more thorough examination of their qualities on Tuesday. While Wales are now unbeaten in seven matches, their second-longest undefeated streak under Rob Page (nine between September 2021 and March 2022), they’ve not recorded a win over Poland since their very first meeting in March 1973.
They’re winless in nine against them and have lost each of their last six clashes, with the Netherlands being the only non-British side they’ve had a longer losing streak against (10, between 1988 and 2002).
That’s a psychological barrier they’ll have to break down if they are to qualify for their third successive European Championship.
Wales vs Poland Prediction
This is likely to be a close encounter. The Opta supercomputer considers Wales to be favourites, but not overwhelmingly so. They won inside 90 minutes in 40.4% of the 10,000 pre-match simulations, compared to Poland’s 30.8% chance. The contest went to extra time 28.8% of the time.
Path B
Ukraine vs Iceland
A stunning late turnaround saw Ukraine get the better of Bosnia and Herzegovina on Thursday. A Mykola Matviyenko own goal early in the second half threatened to be costly, but Roman Yaremchuk inspired a comeback off the bench.
The Valencia striker levelled with his first touch in the 85th minute, and a few moments later saw his left-footed cross nodded in by Artem Dovbyk. Mykhailo Mudryk missed a glorious opportunity with the last kick of the game but it mattered not as Ukraine did enough.
Iceland also came from behind in their semi-final, impressively sweeping Israel aside in a 4-1 win at the Szusza Ferenc Stadion in Újpest, Hungary. Eran Zahavi’s 31st-minute penalty was cancelled out by Albert Gudmundsson’s excellent free-kick, and Arnór Ingvi Traustason’s clinical volley ensured they took a 2-1 lead into the break.
Roy Revivo’s red card 17 minutes from time for a crude challenge made Israel’s task even trickier, and Zahavi’s inability to convert a second penalty of the game had the writing on the wall.
Gudmundsson netted twice in the closing stages to complete a hat-trick and eliminate Israel, who have still never qualified for the European Championship; Iceland will be hoping to reach the finals for a second time after reaching the last eight in 2016.
Ukraine vs Iceland Prediction
If Iceland do manage to return to the Euros, it’ll be a major surprise according to the Opta supercomputer. In 10,000 pre-match simulations, Iceland won just 15.8% inside 90 minutes, whereas Ukraine progressed to Germany without needing extra-time in 66.3% of scenarios. An additional 30 minutes was required 17.9% of the time.
Path C
Georgia vs Greece
Greece thrashed Kazakhstan 5-0 on Thursday to book their place in the Path C play-off final, with four of those coming before half-time.
Georgia saw off Luxembourg 2-0 in Tbilisi, though it was hardly a breeze. Their visitors thought they’d levelled the game at 1-1 early in the second half, but their goal was disallowed because a VAR check spotted a professional foul at the other end just prior to Luxembourg’s attack starting. The offender, Maxime Chanot, was showed a red card and seven minutes later, Budu Zivzivadze scored his second of the game.
As such, Georgia’s dream of qualifying for a first European Championship as an independent nation remains intact, and they will have star player Khvicha Kvaratskhelia back from suspension for the final.
Greece didn’t qualify for either of the past two European Championship tournaments, with the 2004 champions last participating in 2012 when they reached the quarter-finals.
Tbilisi will host Tuesday’s game, potentially giving Georgia something of an edge; they’ve lost only one of their past 12 home matches in all competitions, a 7-1 defeat to Spain in September last year. Though their last home loss prior to that hammering was dished out by Greece in an October 2021 World Cup qualifier.
Greece’s only defeats since the start of last year have been to France and the Netherlands (twice).
Georgia vs Greece Prediction
The Opta supercomputer fancies Greece to get the job done on Tuesday, beating their hosts inside 90 minutes in 42.3% of the 10,000 pre-match simulations. Nevertheless, Georgia aren’t without hope and were victorious in nearly a third of the projections (32.3%). The game went to extra-time in 25.4%, and Georgia might not be too displeased with that scenario given the raucous atmosphere backing them in Tbilisi.
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