This weekend could see Arsenal move back to the top of the Premier League table, but it might only be for one night ahead of Sunday’s massive Liverpool vs Manchester City clash. It’s the most pivotal matchday in the 2023-24 Premier League title race so far.
Arsenal face Brentford at the Emirates Stadium in Saturday’s late kick-off knowing a win will take them back to the top of the Premier League table. They’ve not spent a night at the summit of the English top-flight table since Christmas Day, with Liverpool hogging that spot ever since.
Just over 22 hours after Arsenal’s game, the biggest match of the Premier League season so far takes place at Anfield, as Jürgen Klopp’s Liverpool host Manchester City on Sunday afternoon.
Regardless of Arsenal’s result on Saturday, Pep Guardiola’s Man City will go top of the Premier League if they win at Anfield and spend Sunday night in first place – a feat they haven’t managed since 24 November.
Looking ahead to these huge games, we’ve been able to extract the numbers from the Opta supercomputer to see how all three sides’ Premier League title chances could change after Matchday 28 based on the results of the fixtures in London and Liverpool.
If Arsenal Beat Brentford
Arsenal have a great chance to move into first place on Saturday as they face an out-of-form Brentford side.
The Bees are winless in four Premier League matches, collecting just one point (D1 L3), and have amassed just 10 points in 16 outings since a three-game winning streak in October and November – only Sheffield United and Burnley (9) have won fewer.
Arsenal, on the other hand, are in great form. They’ve won all seven of their Premier League matches in 2024, scoring 31 times and conceding just three. They are the first side in English top-flight history to have scored 30+ goals in their first seven games in a year, with 29 the previous most by Sunderland in 1893 and Arsenal in 1931.
Even if Brentford take the lead on Saturday, Arsenal should still be confident of picking up all three points. Thomas Frank’s side have dropped a league-high 28 points from winning positions in the Premier League this season. That’s the most since Southampton in 2021-22 (29), while only four sides have ever dropped 30+ in a single campaign – Newcastle in 2004-05 (31), Chelsea in 1995-96 (33), Wimbledon in 1999-00 (33) and Tottenham in 2007-08 (33).
If the Gunners win on Saturday, as expected, then it’ll tee up Sunday’s Liverpool vs Manchester City clash perfectly.
Should Arsenal win and the clash at Anfield ends as a draw, Mikel Arteta’s side could see their projected Premier League title chance move up to 19% from 14.3% according to the Opta supercomputer. True, it’s not a huge rise, but that could soon change with the Gunners going to the Etihad Stadium to face Man City themselves on the final day of March.
If Arsenal Draw with Brentford
Arsenal are favourites for an eighth-straight Premier League win on Saturday, beating Brentford in 59.1% of the Opta supercomputer’s pre-match simulations. Across those 10,000 simulations, a draw occurred 24.1% of the time – so it’s not out of the question.
Should that happen, Arsenal will move above Man City in the table on goal difference for at least one night but fail to go above Liverpool at the top of the table.
If the spoils are shared at the Emirates on Saturday and either Liverpool or Man City manage to win a day later, Arsenal’s chances of Premier League title success in 2023-24 will fall below 10%.
If Arsenal Lose to Brentford
Arsenal losing at home to Brentford would not only be a shock, but it would also have huge ramifications for their title chances.
If Brentford manage to win on Saturday in the all-London clash, the best Arsenal could hope for is Man City and Liverpool draw, keeping both sides within reach of them.
If Arsenal lose and Manchester City win, the Opta supercomputer sees the title race firmly in City’s control. They’ll have a two-point lead over Liverpool with 10 games to go and could even further damage Arsenal on 31 March by beating them at home.
That combination of results sees Man City projected to win the Premier League in three out of four simulations (75%), with Liverpool dropping from 33.5% pre-match to 20% after the weekend’s games. Arsenal would fall as low as 5%.
If Liverpool win at Anfield on Sunday after an Arsenal defeat the day before, the title race moves dramatically in favour of Klopp’s side. They would be projected to win the Premier League title 61% of the time – the first time their title chances will have gone above 45% in 2023-24.
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