Arsenal have a chance to go top of the Premier League table in Saturday’s late kick-off at the Emirates Stadium. Will they continue their incredible form? We look ahead to the game with our Arsenal vs Brentford prediction and preview.
Arsenal vs Brentford: The Quick Hits
- Arsenal are favourites for an eighth straight Premier League win on Saturday, beating Brentford in 59.1% of the Opta supercomputer’s pre-match simulations.
- Arsenal have won all seven of their league games in 2024 by an aggregate score of 31-3, becoming the first team in English top-flight history to score 30 or more goals in their first seven games of a calendar year.
- Kai Havertz has both scored and assisted in his last two Premier League games. Cesc Fàbregas was the last Arsenal player to do so in three straight matches, in September 2007.
Match Preview
Matchday 28 is shaping up to be a pivotal point in one of the most exciting Premier League title races of all time. With Liverpool and Manchester City separated by a single point ahead of their monumental clash at Anfield on Sunday, opportunity knocks for Mikel Arteta’s Arsenal, who know a victory over Brentford in Saturday’s late kick-off will take them to the summit.
The two-point gap between leaders Liverpool and third-placed Arsenal is the narrowest between first and third at this stage of a season or later since 4 May 2014, when City memorably edged Liverpool out in a dramatic title race defined by Steven Gerrard’s slip against Chelsea. While all three contenders have been fallible at various points of the campaign, all have put their foot down since the turn of the year.
While Liverpool and City have taken 21 and 22 points, respectively, from their first eight league games of 2024, Arsenal have won all seven of their matches by an aggregate score of 31-3. They are the first team in English top-flight history to score 30 or more goals in their first seven games of a calendar year, with the previous high of 29 being set by Sunderland in 1893 and matched by the Gunners in 1931. Their Champions League defeat to Porto is the only blemish on an otherwise perfect record this year.
Their sensational form continued at Bramall Lane on Monday, with Martin Ødegaard, Gabriel Martinelli, Kai Havertz, Declan Rice and Ben White all on target in a crushing 6-0 win over Sheffield United, while Jayden Bogle also put through his own net. Arteta’s men laid siege to their hosts’ goal from the off and were 5-0 up by the 39th minute – the earliest an away team has held a five-goal lead in Premier League history.
And to think that the January transfer window was dominated by talk of Arsenal needing a striker! Havertz has stepped up to the plate as a false nine recently, both scoring and assisting in Arsenal’s last two games against Newcastle United and Sheffield United. The last Gunner to both score and assist in three straight matches in the competition was Cesc Fàbregas in September 2007.
Havertz also has as many goal involvements in his last three Premier League games (five – three goals, two assists) as he managed in his previous 32 for Chelsea and Arsenal (four goals, one assist).
In the only negative to emerge from Arsenal’s latest dominant win, Bukayo Saka and Martinelli were both substituted early. Arteta has since revealed Saka felt unwell and Martinelli was nursing a cut, though, so both could be involved on Saturday. Full-backs Takehiro Tomiyasu and Oleksandr Zinchenko could also feature after being close to making Monday’s matchday squad.
One player who will not be available for the visitors is David Raya, who is ineligible to face his parent club. Aaron Ramsdale will replace the Spaniard between the sticks, having already played in two 1-0 victories over Brentford this season, one in the Premier League and one in the EFL Cup. The last Gunners goalkeeper to keep three clean sheets against an opponent in a single season was Jens Lehmann, against Blackburn Rovers in 2004-05.
While Arsenal are flying, Brentford are glancing nervously over their shoulders, entering Matchday 28 six points clear of the relegation zone having played one game more than 18th-placed Luton Town.
A late Axel Disasi header denied Thomas Frank’s men a vital win against west London rivals Chelsea last week, after goals from Mads Roerslev and Yoane Wissa – the latter’s a spectacular overhead kick – had put them 2-1 up.
Brentford have now dropped an astonishing 28 points from winning positions in the Premier League this season, the most in a single campaign since Southampton in 2021-22 (29). Only four teams have ever dropped 30 or more in a season in the competition – Newcastle in 2004-05 (31), Chelsea in 1995-96, Wimbledon in 1999-00 and Tottenham in 2007-08 (all 33).
That inability to see games out has Brentford fighting to stave off relegation, while a lengthy injury list has also not helped their cause. The Bees earned 16 points from their first 11 Premier League games of 2023-24, averaging 1.5 per game, but they have since taken 10 from 16 outings, averaging 0.6 per game.
Ben Mee became the latest Brentford player to suffer a long-term injury last week, joining Josh Dasilva, Rico Henry, Aaron Hickey, Kevin Schade, Ethan Pinnock and Bryan Mbeumo in the treatment room.
If Brentford are to turn their form around, Wissa could have a crucial role to play. After netting against West Ham and Chelsea, he is looking to score in three successive Premier League games for the first time. Six of his last eight goals in the competition have come in London derbies.
Arsenal vs Brentford Head-to-Head
Arsenal have only lost one of their last 10 meetings with Brentford in all competitions (seven wins, two draws), suffering a 2-0 away defeat in the Bees’ first-ever Premier League game in August 2021.
The Gunners have posted two 1-0 victories at the Gtech Community Stadium this season, with Havertz heading a late winner in November’s return fixture in the Premier League and Reiss Nelson doing the honours in September’s EFL Cup tie.
Brentford have also won just once in nine all-time visits to Arsenal (four draws, four defeats), posting a 2-0 league win back in April 1938.
Arsenal will be relishing the prospect of another London derby, having beaten Crystal Palace 5-0 and West Ham 6-0 in their two meetings with fellow capital clubs in 2024.
Only Arsenal themselves, back in 1934-35, have ever scored five or more goals in three successive London derby matches in English league history.
Recent Form
Brentford have lost 10 of their last 13 Premier League games, winning two – against Nottingham Forest and Wolves – and drawing with Chelsea last time out, though that result did halt the Bees’ three-game losing run.
They have also lost nine of their 13 away Premier League matches this season, with Sheffield United (10) the only team in the division to suffer more road defeats ahead of this weekend’s fixtures.
While Brentford will have to be at their best to keep Arsenal’s attackers quiet, they will also be coming up against the league’s meanest defence.
The Gunners have conceded just three goals in seven Premier League outings in 2024, and most remarkably, have allowed their opponents to create a total of just 2.12 expected goals (xG) in those matches, nearly five fewer than the division’s next-best defence in 2024, Man City (7.08 xGA in eight games).
Arsenal vs Brentford Prediction
Given Arsenal’s incredible form and Brentford’s downturn, it should come as no surprise to see the Opta supercomputer make the home side favourites for this one.
Across 10,000 match simulations conducted by the supercomputer ahead of kick-off, Arsenal were victorious in 59.1% of scenarios, with Brentford triumphing in 16.8% and the likelihood of a draw rated at 24.1%.
In the supercomputer’s season predictions, Arsenal remain third favourites for the title, though this weekend’s results could have a major impact on their hopes. The Gunners currently top the pile in 14% of season simulations, compared to 51.5% for City and 34.5% for Liverpool, though at least one of those sides will drop points on Sunday.
Brentford, meanwhile, are relegated in 2.4% of scenarios, finishing 14th in a league-high 25.8%.
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