We’re diving through each league and revealing who our supercomputer’s favorites are in our NCAA men’s basketball conference tournament predictions.

Now is the time to find out who will dance and who will be left on the bleachers.

There are 12 days until Selection Sunday, but there will still be some incredible basketball from now until then. This stretch will help plant the seeds (pun intended) for the NCAA Tournament.

Conference tournament season will be wild. Leagues like the Big East and ACC will have bubble teams doing all they can to boost their resumes for Selection Sunday. Others will need to win their tournament in order to be one of 68. And sure, there are some teams that are locks for the NCAA Tournament but looking to improve their seeding.

We’ve simulated each conference tournament thousands of times using TRACR, our Team Rating for Conference and Roster. TRACR, which we have for women’s college basketball and college football as well, is a net efficiency metric that calculates a team’s points per possession on both sides of the ball, adjusted for the strength of the opponent.

An average team is at 0.0, while a really good team might have a TRACR rating of 20 or more. As an example, a team with a TRACR rating of 20 that averages 70 possessions per game would outscore an average team by .29 points per possession (20 divided by 70) in a game. If the game had 100 possessions, then that 20-some TRACR team would outscore the average team by about 29 points.

With that, let’s dive through each conference and see who our supercomputer’s favorites are. They’re listed in order of highest probability of winning the conference tournament with that probability in parentheses.

Note: Some conferences are still finishing their regular season. These projections will continually update after the end of each conference’s regular season. All TRACR rankings referenced are through March 5.

America East / American Athletic Conference / Atlantic 10 / ACC / Atlantic Sun / Big 12 / Big East / Big Sky / Big Ten / Big West / Coastal Athletic / Conference USA / Horizon / Ivy League / Metro Atlantic Athletic / Mid-American / Mid-Eastern / Missouri Valley / Mountain West / Northeast / Ohio Valley / Pac-12 / Patriot League / SEC / Southern / Southland / Southwestern Athletic / Summit League / Sun Belt / West Coast / Western Athletic


  1. Vermont (47.3%)
  2. UMass Lowell (16.6%)
  3. Bryant (12.7%)
  4. Maine (8.2%)
  5. Albany (5.8%)
  6. New Hampshire (3.5%)
  7. Binghamton (3.2%)
  8. UMBC (2.7%)

Vermont (91st in TRACR) will go for its third America East title in a row. Each game is played at campus sites of the higher seeds, giving the 24-6 Catamounts home-court advantage. They finished 14-1 in the conference, and their lone loss was on the road to NJIT (337th), which did not qualify for the conference tournament.

Expect a 13 or 14 seed for Vermont if it wins the tournament. If the Catamounts are upset, then the team that gets the automatic bid will likely be a 15 or 16 seed.

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  1. Florida Atlantic (31.1%)
  2. SMU (21.6%)
  3. Memphis (19.9%)
  4. South Florida (12.3%)
  5. North Texas (6.7%)
  6. Charlotte (3.1%)
  7. Wichita State (1.7%)
  8. UAB (1.4%)
  9. Tulane (0.6%)
  10. East Carolina (0.5%)
  11. Rice (0.4%)
  12. Temple (0.4%)
  13. Tulsa (0.2%)
  14. UTSA (0.1%)

Who would have guessed that South Florida (88th) would finish on top of the AAC? With Houston moving to the Big 12, it seemed like the regular-season champion would be either Florida Atlantic (32nd) or Memphis (47th). Those were the 1-2 projections in the AAC preseason poll – South Florida was picked ninth. Credit to Amir Abdur-Rahim, who is in his first season with the team after four years with Kennesaw State, for taking the Bulls from eighth in the AAC in 2022-23 to an outstanding 15-1 record.

The Bulls had some luck, though. Of their 15 conference wins, eight were decided by six or fewer points. That’s the most conference wins by any team in Division I. That’s why TRACR gives the advantage to Florida Atlantic, which had a tougher strength of schedule and pulled out wins over 12th-ranked Texas A&M (59th) and fourth-ranked Arizona (No. 5) on neutral courts. Dusty May’s Owls may not have the Final Four potential like last year, but they’ll still be a lock for the NCAA Tournament whether they win the AAC or not.

SMU (56th) also came by surprise, having six double-digit conference wins, including a 27-point blowout against Memphis. Rob Lanier’s Mustangs, however, have lost their last three games.

And boy, what happened to Memphis? The Tigers started the season 15-2 before losing four straight in January. The Tigers have heated up, winning four in a row, but they will likely have to win the conference tournament in order to dance this year.

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  1. Dayton (32.7%)
  2. Richmond (14.7%)
  3. VCU (11.4%)
  4. Loyola Chicago (10.2%)
  5. St. Bonaventure (10.2%)
  6. Massachusetts (7.6%)
  7. Saint Joseph’s (4.1%)
  8. Duquesne (3.4%)
  9. George Mason (3.2%)
  10. Davidson (1.8%)
  11. Fordham (0.4%)
  12. La Salle (0.3%)
  13. George Washington (<0.1%)
  14. Rhode Island (<0.1%)
  15. Saint Louis (<0.1%)

DaRon Holmes II has put up an incredible season for Dayton (28th), averaging 20.0 points, 8.0 rebounds and 2.2 blocks. He has propelled the Flyers to being a lock in the NCAA Tournament. Expect them to be around a 5 seed if they win the Atlantic 10 Tournament and a 6-7 seed if they do not.

Dayton might be the favorite to win the conference tournament, but it will not win the conference’s regular season. Richmond (65th) has gone on a tear in conference play after a mild nonconference performance, while Drew Valentine has taken Loyola Chicago (81st) from a 4-14 record in conference play in 2022-23 to 13-3 this season. The Spiders holds the tiebreaker over both the Flyers and Ramblers.

Bubble teams will be watching this conference tournament. Richmond and Loyola will have to win the conference tourney to get in. Keeping the Atlantic 10 a one-bid conference will help bubble teams’ chances of dancing.

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  1. North Carolina (35.0%)
  2. Duke (30.6%)
  3. Pittsburgh (9.7%)
  4. Clemson (8.5%)
  5. Wake Forest (7.5%)
  6. Virginia (2.6%)
  7. Virginia Tech (1.7%)
  8. Syracuse (1.4%)
  9. Florida State (1.0%)
  10. North Carolina State (0.9%)
  11. Boston College (0.5%)
  12. Miami (FL) (0.4%)
  13. Georgia Tech (0.1%)
  14. Notre Dame (0.1%)
  15. Louisville (<0.1%)

Should we expect anything but a Duke-North Carolina championship game? That seems to be the move right now as the rest of the conference has had its struggles down the stretch. The Blue Devils lost both meeting with the Tar Heels this season and need to prove that they can beat the big teams this year. This is their moment to do so.

What has happened to Virginia? The Cavaliers looked like they’d be a lock for the NCAA Tournament, but they’ve averaged just 50.8 points over their last five games. They are projected to be a 10 or 11 seed now, but a first-round loss in the ACC tournament could knock them out.

The same goes for Wake Forest. TRACR has loved the Demon Deacons all year in part due to nine wins by 20 or more, but they really keep shooting themselves in the foot. After a court-storming (not under Jay Bilas’ America) win over Duke, Wake lost three straight road games to Notre Dame, Virginia Tech and Georgia Tech and is now just 2-9 on the road this season. Making it to at least the championship game will secure Wake a spot in the NCAA Tournament.

With Clemson having a nice season as well, there’s a chance that only three ACC teams make the NCAA Tournament. I expect one of Virginia and Wake will make it to get the conference four. It has been yet another down year for the ACC.

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  1. Lipscomb (28.6%)
  2. Austin Peay (18.7%)
  3. Eastern Kentucky (17.8%)
  4. North Florida (11.6%)
  5. Stetson (9.3%)
  6. North Alabama (5.1%)
  7. Jacksonville (4.5%)
  8. Queens University (4.4%)

The Atlantic Sun tournament began yesterday, with Jacksonville (281st) beating Kennesaw State (272nd) 92-86 and Queens (252nd) defeating Florida Gulf Coast (218th) 69-63.

All rounds are reseeded instead of a traditional bracket, and the higher seeds have home court advantage. Bellarmine (300th) and Queens are ineligible to advance to the NCAA Tournament as they are transitioning form Division II. Bellarmine did not qualify for the conference tournament anyways; if Queens pulls off the miracle, then the automatic bid will be given to Eastern Kentucky (214th), which won the regular season title.

Eastern Kentucky, however, has fallen off slightly, losing its last two games. It ended the regular season with a 14-point loss on the road to Lipscomb (157th). Lipscomb is the only team in the conference with a TRACR value of above 0.0.

The winner of the conference tournament will be a 16 seed. Let’s go Peay!

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BIG 12

  1. Houston (38.5%)
  2. Iowa State (16.0%)
  3. Baylor (12.0%)
  4. BYU (10.9%)
  5. Texas Tech (6.7%)
  6. Kansas (5.3%)
  7. Texas (3.8%)
  8. Cincinnati (1.9%)
  9. TCU (1.7%)
  10. Oklahoma (1.5%)
  11. Kansas State (1.0%)
  12. UCF (0.7%)
  13. Oklahoma State (<0.1%)
  14. West Virginia (<0.1%)

This is the first time in the Bill Self era that Kansas did not finish in the top three in the regular season in the Big 12. You have to go back to the 1999-2000 Roy Williams squad to find when the Jayhawks finished fifth in the conference.

And yet, Kansas did not have a bad season at all. The preseason AP No. 1 has wins over Houston, UConn and Tennessee. Its lone home loss came against BYU. It just goes to show how strong the Big 12 is.

Still, the Cougars got revenge against the Jayhawks with a 30-point blowout to end the regular season. Credit Kelvin Sampson for transitioning to the toughest conference and guiding Houston to a regular-season title. Jamal Shead will likely be a first team All American, and L.J. Cryer has been an amazing transfer. One thing that Houston will miss is freshman Joseph Tugler, who is done for the season with a broken foot. Whether they win the Big 12 tournament or not, the Cougars will be a No. 1 seed yet again in the NCAA Tournament. A tournament title should give them an opportunity to be the No. 1 overall seed, too.

The Big 12 will likely get nine schools into the NCAA Tournament this year. Only two teams in the conference are outside TRACR’s top 100 (Oklahoma State and West Virginia) and seven are in the top 25. Yet another tremendous year for the conference that looks to win its third NCAA title in the last four tournaments.

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  1. UConn (40.4%)
  2. Creighton (23.3%)
  3. Marquette (14.9%)
  4. St. John’s (8.4%)
  5. Villanova (5.8%)
  6. Seton Hall (2.8%)
  7. Providence (1.6%)
  8. Xavier (1.4%)
  9. Butler (1.4%)
  10. Georgetown (<0.1%)
  11. DePaul (<0.1%)

TRACR had UConn as the favorite to win in Madison Square Garden last year, but Marquette knocked out the Huskies en route to a tournament title. The two would have to square off in the championship game if that were to happen this year.

Is this a better Huskies squad than last year? It sure looked like it at home, going undefeated while outscoring opponents by an average of 25.5 points. UConn finished the regular season with tough road games against Marquette and Providence and won both. Dan Hurley should be national coach of the year – even through injuries, he’s guided this team to a dominant Big East regular-season title.

UConn has only one loss since Christmas. Creighton blew out the Huskies at home. The Bluejays split their series over both UConn and Marquette, but they have been vulnerable on the road, going 8-5. Could that be an issue at Madison Square Garden and in the NCAA Tournament? It did end the season with a road win against Villanova.

Marquette may be struggling at the wrong time, too. Tyler Kolek will miss the remainder of the regular season with an oblique injury. He could miss more. Shaka Smart’s Golden Eagles are 11-2 since Jan. 15, but they will need Kolek back to win back-to-back Big East tournament titles.

UConn is in, Creighton is in, Marquette is in. What about the rest? The middle of the Big East is fighting for NCAA Tourney spots. Providence is falling and is likely out unless it can make a deep run in the conference tourney. Seton Hall and St. John’s are likely in. Nova will have to win a game or two. I would expect five Big East teams to make the NCAA Tournament with either the Pirates or Wildcats being the first team out.

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  1. Eastern Washington (28.1%)
  2. Montana (22.1%)
  3. Weber State (21.8%)
  4. Northern Colorado (12.4%)
  5. Montana State (5.1%)
  6. Idaho State (4.3%)
  7. Portland State (4.3%)
  8. Idaho (0.7%)
  9. Sacramento State (0.7%)
  10. Northern Arizona (0.5%)

The Big Sky has only one NCAA Tournament win this century and will likely have a 15 seed this year. I do not think it would be able to pull off the March Madness miracle, but if anyone in the conference could do it, it would be this crafty Eastern Washington (124th) squad.

A key player to watch for is Ellis Magnuson, the only player in Division I with at least 100 assists (136) and fewer than 100 points (94). He only has 41 turnovers as well and his 3.32 assist-turnover ratio is the 12th highest in the Division I rankings. Adding the fifth-year senior into the starting lineup has helped Eastern Washington win a second consecutive regular-season title.

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  1. High Point (30.0%)
  2. UNC Asheville (25.0%)
  3. Winthrop (12.3%)
  4. Gardner-Webb (11.6%)
  5. Longwood (9.1%)
  6. Presbyterian (6.2%)
  7. Radford (2.9%)
  8. Charleston Southern (1.5%)
  9. USC Upstate (1.4%)

High Point (117th) looks to reach the NCAA Tournament for the first time in school history. It has had an incredible turnaround after going just 6-12 in conference play last season. Give credit to Alan Huss, his first season with the program, as well as Duke Miles, a transfer from Troy who leads the team in scoring (17.8 points per game) and assisting (3.6 assists per game).

I would expect a 14 seed for High Point if it were to win the tournament and a 15-16 seed for anyone else.  

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  1. Purdue (41.0%)
  2. Illinois (19.6%)
  3. Nebraska (11.2%)
  4. Northwestern (6.7%)
  5. Wisconsin (5.4%)
  6. Michigan State (5.1%))
  7. Ohio State (4.5%)
  8. Indiana (2.3%)
  9. Iowa (2.3%)
  10. Minnesota (0.6%)
  11. Penn State (0.6%)
  12. Maryland (0.5%)
  13. Rutgers (0.1%)
  14. Michigan (0.1%)

Will Nebrasketball (33rd) shock the world in the Big Ten tournament? This is Fred Hoiberg’s best team since he took over the program in 2019-20 and it will likely be the team’s first tournament appearance since 2014. The Cornhuskers have never won an NCAA Tournament game.

Or will it be Boo Buie, Northwestern’s all-time leading scorer, catching fire and leading the Wildcats to a Big Ten title? The Wildcats have never even made it to the title game, and it might be even tougher without Ty Berry, who is out for the season after tearing his meniscus on Feb. 7.

Wisconsin has completely fallen off the map, going 3-8 since Feb. 1. Michigan State came in as the AP No. 4 team in the country but has been on and off all season, including losing four of its last five. One big positive for the Spartans is that Steven Izzo finally got the first basket of his career. That ruled.

One team that could also make a surprise run is Indiana, which was having a disastrous season and its top recruit of 2024 recently decommitted. However, the Hoosiers have rallied as of late with four straight wins, shooting 54.7% from the field and 43.6% from 3. IU will need to win the conference title to dance.

And Michigan… my goodness. John Beilein, the former coach and now analyst for the Big Ten Network, said “he didn’t have a comment” after the 23-point loss to Ohio State. The Juwan Howard era should have ended two years ago, but it might be wrapping up now.

Fun fact: The last two Big Ten tournament champs have gone on to lose in the first round of the NCAA Tournament.

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  1. UC Irvine (55.8%)
  2. UC Davis (17.8%)
  3. Hawaii (12.5%)
  4. Long Beach State (6.5%)
  5. UC Riverside (3.0%)
  6. UC Santa Barbara (2.0%)
  7. Bakersfield (1.5%)
  8. CSUN (0.9%)

UC San Diego finished in second place in the Big West but is ineligible for the conference tournament as the Tritons are in their final year of their four-year transition into Division I. Thus, this tournament is UC Irvine’s to lose.

UC Irvine went 17-3 in the Big West, winning its last four games by an average of 17.5 points. Pierre Crockrell II, who leads the conference in assists per game (6.3), is the player to watch. This could be a dangerous 12 or 13 seed in the NCAA Tournament.

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  1. Charleston (34.3%)
  2. Hofstra (20.6%)
  3. Drexel (15.3%)
  4. UNCW (14.6%)
  5. Towson (4.4%)
  6. Stony Brook (3.7%)
  7. Delaware (2.6%)
  8. Monmouth (2.6%)
  9. Northeastern (1.0%)
  10. Campbell (0.4%)
  11. Elon (0.2%)
  12. William & Mary (0.2%)
  13. Hampton (<0.1%)
  14. North Carolina A&T (<0.1%)

Charleston (79th) lost its best player from last year (Dalton Bolon) but returned sharpshooter Reyne Smith and big man Ante Brzovic. While the Cougars are the top squad, they will likely have to face a tough UNC Wilmington (121st) in the semis or Hofstra (109th) in the finals. This one may be up in the air.

The winner would get a 14 seed, maybe a 15 seed.

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  1. Louisiana Tech (34.2%)
  2. Sam Houston (20.9%)
  3. Western Kentucky (16.0%)
  4. Liberty (11.3%)
  5. UTEP (9.6%)
  6. Jacksonville State (2.7%)
  7. Middle Tennessee (2.3%)
  8. New Mexico State (1.9%)
  9. FIU (1.1%)

Louisiana Tech was excellent in January and had seven games decided by single digits in February. Fifth-year senior Isaiah Crawford will have to be on his best game if the Bulldogs want to beat Liberty, Western Kentucky or Sam Houston. Louisiana Tech lost to all three at some point this season.

The winner gets a 13 or 14 seed.

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  1. Wright State (27.2%)
  2. Oakland (26.8%)
  3. Cleveland State (15.3%)
  4. Purdue Fort Wayne (12.1%)
  5. Northern Kentucky (8.6%)
  6. Green Bay (5.0%)
  7. Milwaukee (4.3%)
  8. Robert Morris (0.5%)
  9. IUPUI (0.1%)
  10. Detroit (<0.1%)
  11. Youngstown State (<0.1%)

Detroit (342nd) went 0-26 to start the season while IUPUI (361st) is TRACR’s second-worst team in the country behind only Mississippi Valley State. Oakland (133rd) and Wright State (138th) are having nice seasons, though. The Grizzlies even beat Xavier (63rd) on the road earlier this season. The Raiders beat Oakland by 21 points on the road on Feb. 25.

The winner might get a 15 seed, though it could fall to one of the 16 seeds this year.

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  1. Princeton (45.1%)
  2. Yale (24.8%)
  3. Cornell (22.7%)
  4. Brown (7.4%)

It was surprising to see Brown make the last spot at 12-17, but a six-game winning streak propelled them to a tournament berth. It will most likely be between Princeton, Yale and Cornell for the Ivy League’s spot in the NCAA Tournament. The Tigers are missing most of their Sweet 16 squad from last year, but Xaivian Lee and Caden Pierce have been an excellent 1-2 combo.

Princeton could get a 12 seed if it wins the conference tournament, perhaps even an 11 seed. If it’s Yale or Cornell, I would expect a 13 seed.

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  1. Fairfield (24.3%)
  2. Saint Peter’s (16.3%)
  3. Rider (14.4%)
  4. Saint Peter’s (13.3%)
  5. Marist (11.4%)
  6. Mount St. Mary’s (7.3%)
  7. Iona (6.0%)
  8. Quinnipiac (11.2%)
  9. Iona (9.7%)
  10. Niagara (4.4%)
  11. Canisius (1.9%)
  12. Manhattan (0.5%)
  13. Siena (0.2%)

The MAAC is up in the air – Quinnipiac (won the regular-season title and has won four straight after losing four in a row. TRACR prefers the second seed Fairfield, which has won eight of its last 10 games while shooting 42.5% from beyond the arc. Rider is just 15-16 overall but won its last seven games.

Could the Peacocks of Saint Peter’s (205th) strut their stuff to the Elite Eight again? Eh, no.

The winner will likely be a 16 seed.

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  1. Toledo (26.2%)
  2. Ohio (23.6%)
  3. Akron (20.8%)
  4. Kent State (9.7%)
  5. Bowling Green (8.2%)
  6. Central Michigan (4.3%)
  7. Miami (OH) (3.8%)
  8. Western Michigan (3.4%)

The bottom four teams – Ball State, Eastern Michigan, Northern Illinois and Buffalo miss out on MAC-tion this year. Only the top eight teams in the conference make the conference tournament.

A week ago, Akron would have been the favorites to win the conference tournament, but John Groce’s Zips lost their last two games of the regular season to Eastern Michigan and Western Michigan. Akron even had a 14-point halftime lead against the Broncos before allowing 59 points in the second half.

The top five scorers for Akron are seniors, giving it some experience in the MAC tournament. However, both Toldeo and Ohio have wins over the Zips. The Bobcats are red hot, winning their last six games by an average of 11.0 points, while the Rockets have won three in a row by an average of 18.3 points.

It will likely be one of these top three teams to represent the MAC in the NCAA Tournament. It should be a fun tournament final, with the winner likely getting a 14 or 15 seed.

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  1. Norfolk State (32.8%)
  2. North Carolina Central (28.4%)
  3. Howard (14.5%)
  4. South Carolina State (11.6%)
  5. Delaware State (5.5%)
  6. Morgan State (4.3%)
  7. Maryland Eastern Shore (2.4%)
  8. Coppin State (0.5%)

No team in the MEAC has a TRACR rating of above 0.0, which likely means that the winner of this conference tournament will be in one of the play-in games as a 16 seed.

TRACR prefers North Carolina Central despite just losing to Morgan State, but the home-court advantage still gives the Spartans an advantage. NC Central does have one of the best names in college basketball, though: Po’Boigh King, a freshman averaging 14.6 points.

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  1. Indiana State (36.4%)
  2. Drake (21.8%)
  3. Bradley (20.0%)
  4. UNI (9.0%)
  5. Belmont (5.0%)
  6. Southern Illinois (3.1%)
  7. Illinois State (1.5%)
  8. Missouri State (1.2%)
  9. Murray State (0.9%)
  10. UIC (0.6%)
  11. Evansville (0.4%)
  12. Valparaiso (0.1%)

It is time to talk about Robbie Avila. Many college basketball fanatics have likely heard of Avila or have watched a highlight or two. The 6-foot-10 center for Indiana State (41st) is averaging 17.6 points, 6.9 rebounds and 3.9 assists while shooting just under 40.0% from beyond the arc. Just watch this recent performance against Evansville. And yes, he wears rec specs! Many are calling him “Cream Abdul-Jabbar” and “Walmart Jokic.” He will be a huge favorite in March.

But this team is more than Avila. The Sycamores were ranked in the AP Poll the week of Feb. 12 for the first time since the Larry Bird 1978-79 team. They also shoot really well from beyond the arc, making 11.0 3s per game (fourth in Division I).

Will the committee put Indiana State in if it does not win Arch Madness? The Missouri Valley has had lots of tournament success, including Loyola Chicago’s epic Final Four run in 2018. Taking the Sycamores out of it would be quite the shame given their impressive resume. If anything, making Indiana State one of the last four teams in would be justice for the mid-majors.

Drake (67th) and Bradley (61st) would be the ones to challenge Indiana State. Brian Wardle has won two MVC tournaments with the Braves. Drake won last year’s tournament. Tucker DeVries, the son of head coach Darian DeVries, is averaging 21.9 points this season. Drake may not get an at-large bid, but both the Bulldogs and Indiana State deserve to be in the NCAA Tournament.

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  1. San Diego State (19.3)
  2. Nevada (18.2%)
  3. Boise State (17.0%)
  4. Utah State (16.6%)
  5. New Mexico (12.9%)
  6. Colorado State (8.3%)
  7. UNLV (6.3%)
  8. Wyoming (1.3%)
  9. Fresno State (0.1%)
  10. San Jose State (<0.1%)
  11. Air Force (<0.1%)

It’s been a tremendous season for the Mountain West, which may end up with more bids than the ACC, Big Ten and Pac-12.

Despite being the fifth seed in the conference tournament, TRACR likes San Diego State to win the conference, even though it lost its last two games of the regular season. I have some concerns over the Aztecs, who are 8-7 since Jan. 13. They are also the worst 3-point shooting team in the Mountain West at 31.9%. But San Diego State still can outmatch opponents defensively.

Nevada may be the sleeper here. Steve Alford’s Wolf Pack have won seven in a row, with Jarod Lucas averaging 20.9 points in those games. This may be the best Nevada team since the Martin twins era.

Boise State is the highest-rated team in the conference, but it will have to go through a tougher route to the final. New Mexico will need at least one win to dance – the same may be true for Colorado State. This will be a close one between seven different teams. It might be the tournament of the year.

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  1. Merrimack (33.1%)
  2. Central Connecticut State (27.6%)
  3. Sacred Heart (19.1%)
  4. Le Moyne (9.5%)
  5. Wagner (4.3%)
  6. FDU (3.3%)
  7. LIU (1.6%)
  8. Saint Francis U (1.5%)

Central Connecticut State (258th) will have home-court advantage throughout the conference tournament, but TRACR still likes Merrimack (200th) to win a game on the road en route to the dance. The Warriors had won 10 in a row before losing to Sacred Heart (254th) on Saturday. Good thing they won’t have to go through Monitor in this tournament.

The winner will be a 16 seed, and likely in one of the play-in games.

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  1. Little Rock (39.0%)
  2. Morehead State (29.2%)
  3. UT Martin (19.1%)
  4. Western Illinois (8.2%)
  5. Tennessee State (1.7%)
  6. SIUE (1.3%)
  7. Eastern Illinois (1.1%)
  8. Southern Indiana (0.4%)

Morehead State (113th), Little Rock (137th) and UT Martin (194st) all finished 14-4 in the OVC, but Little Rock and UT Martin get the triple bye in this awful structure of a conference tournament. Morehead State will need to win three games to dance, while the Trojans get a relatively easy schedule to make the final. I would be surprised if the tournament champion was not one of these three.

The winner likely gets a 15 seed.

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  1. Arizona (49.3%)
  2. Colorado (16.4%)
  3. Washington State (11.9%)
  4. Utah (7.3%)
  5. Oregon (6.6%)
  6. Washington (2.7%)
  7. USC (2.0%)
  8. Stanford (1.3%)
  9. UCLA (1.2%)
  10. California (0.6%)
  11. Oregon State (0.4%)
  12. Arizona State (0.3%)

Disappointing seasons from Oregon, USC and UCLA made the Pac-12’s final year somewhat disappointing. But hey, the women’s conference tournament was thrilling.

One nice surprise, however, has been Washington State. This team has tremendous height, with every starter but leading scorer Myles Rice standing at 6-foot-7 or taller. The Cougars are 10-2 since Jan. 24.

Colorado has gone back on bubble watch after winning its last six games of the tournament. It will likely need a win over the winner of Utah and Arizona State to dance. TRACR currently has the Buffs as one of the last four teams in.

This is still Arizona’s tournament to lose, though. Caleb Love should be in the running for first team All-American honors and Pelle Larsson has turned into a sharpshooter from 3. The Wildcats have wins over Duke, Michigan State, Wisconsin and Alabama, making their nonconference resume one of the best as well. Winning the conference tournament will give them a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament, though they might be a 1 seed no matter what.

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  1. Colgate (51.3%)
  2. American University (12.8%)
  3. Lehigh (11.7%)
  4. Boston University (10.9%)
  5. Bucknell (5.3%)
  6. Lafayette (3.2%)
  7. Navy (2.7%)
  8. Army West Point (0.9%)
  9. Loyola Maryland (0.7%)
  10. Holy Cross (0.5%)

Bracketologists have been dying for Colgate (150th) to finally get an NCAA Tournament win, but the Raiders are 0-6 all time. Will it happen? They are 14-1 since Jan. 13, but their 6-7 record in nonconference play suggests that it will not come this year. In addition, their most recent loss came at home against American (268th), who could knock off Colgate in the semifinals.

The winner of the Patriot League will likely be a 15 seed in the NCAA Tournament.

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  1. Auburn (27.2%)
  2. Tennessee (27.2%)
  3. Alabama (18.4%)
  4. Kentucky (17.7%)
  5. Florida (3.2%)
  6. Texas A&M (2.5%)
  7. Mississippi State (1.8%)
  8. South Carolina (1.2%)
  9. Ole Miss (0.4%)
  10. LSU (0.2%)
  11. Arkansas (0.1%)
  12. Georgia (0.1%)
  13. Missouri (<0.1%)
  14. Vanderbilt (<0.1%)

Every year it seems like Tennessee has a dynamic team, but it has not had a key player to lead it on a deep run in the NCAA Tournament. The Volunteers have been to two Sweet 16s under Rick Barnes and have been upset by a higher seed in each of the last three tournaments.

Dalton Knecht might be that player that can lead them over the hump, though. A transfer from Northern Colorado, Knecht may be a first team All-American as he’s averaged 20.6 points while shooting 40.2% from 3.

Auburn is just 1-7 in Quad 1 games but is still capable of knocking off big teams on a neutral court. The Tigers’ best moment of the season was a 40-point blowout against South Carolina. TRACR has the Tigers and Vols at even chances to win the conference tournament.

Alabama and Kentucky have dynamic offenses, with the Crimson Tide having the highest offensive TRACR in Division I. The recent meeting between Kentucky and Bama ended in a 117-95 win for the Wildcats.

The Gamecocks have had a fantastic year, too. Lamont Paris has taken this team from an 11-21 record last season to 25-6 this season. While TRACR does not expect them to win the SEC tourney, they could still win a game or two in the NCAA Tournament.

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  1. Western Carolina (23.0%)
  2. Samford (22.1%)
  3. UNCG (19.0%)
  4. Furman (9.6%)
  5. Chattanooga (9.2%)
  6. Wofford (7.7%)
  7. East Tennessee State (5.9%)
  8. Mercer (2.7%)
  9. Citadel (0.8%)
  10. VMI (<0.1%)

Samford (107th) and Western Carolina (95th) are the top two teams in the SoCon, per TRACR, but the two might face each other in the semifinals. This tournament has had some crazy moments, and the winners have gone on to do some crazy things in the NCAA Tournament, too.

The SoCon winner could get a 12 seed in the tournament but will likely end up as a 13 seed.  

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  1. McNeese State (57.0%)
  2. Texas A&M-Corpus Christi (26.8%)
  3. Nicholls (10.7%)
  4. Lamar (4.6%)
  5. Northwestern State (0.4%)
  6. Texas A&M-Commerce (0.3%)
  7. Southeastern Louisiana (0.2%)
  8. New Orleans (<0.1%)

McNeese State is a team to watch. After five seasons at LSU, Will Wade took a year off before joining the Cowboys. He’s helped them go from an 11-23 record to 26-3 this season. McNeese State has the best point differential in Division I, outscoring opponents by an average of 18.9 points. Adding transfer Shahada Wells from TCU has been the main difference – Wells went from averaging 5.9 points last season with the Horned Frogs to 17.0 this season.

Texas A&M-Corpus Christi has the second-highest chances of winning the tournament, but it lost to McNeese State twice this season. This is another tournament with a double-bye system for the top two teams, making the 1-2 seeds heavy favorites to dance.

Expect McNeese State to be a pesky 12 seed in this year’s NCAA Tournament.

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  1. Alcorn State (18.8%)
  2. Southern University (18.6%)
  3. Texas Southern (17.9%)
  4. Grambling State (15.1%)
  5. Jackson State (11.6%)
  6. Bethune-Cookman (8.5%)
  7. Alabama State (5.3%)
  8. UAPB (4.2%)

The SWAC is the worst conference in Division I, with an average TRACR rating of minus-18.5. Still, this could be quite a fun tournament to watch with nobody having more than a 20% chance of winning it. Whoever does win, expect it to play in one of the opening round play-in games as a 16 seed.

TRACR’s worst team in Division I, Mississippi Valley State, did not qualify to be in the tournament. However, the Delta Devils won their only game of the season on Feb. 26, leading to this awesome moment.

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  1. South Dakota State (36.0%)
  2. St. Thomas (MN) (20.1%)
  3. Kansas City (16.9%)
  4. North Dakota (12.6%)
  5. North Dakota State (4.5%)
  6. Omaha (3.8%)
  7. Denver (3.6%)
  8. Oral Roberts (2.0%)
  9. South Dakota (0.5%)

St. Thomas (131st) is ineligible for the NCAA Tournament but is allowed to play in the conference tournament. If the Tommies do win the Summit title, then South Dakota State (101st), the conference’s top team, will dance. Thus, the Jackrabbits have more than a 50% chance of making the NCAA Tournament.

This is not the Mike Daum-led Jackrabbits, though, and the winner of this tournament will likely be a 16 seed.

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  1. James Madison (35.2%)
  2. App State (32.0%)
  3. Troy (13.2%)
  4. Arkansas State (8.2%)
  5. Louisiana (4.7%)
  6. South Alabama (1.3%)
  7. Texas State (1.1%)
  8. Southern Miss (1.1%)
  9. Georgia State (1.0%)
  10. Marshall (1.0%)
  11. Georgia Southern (0.9%)
  12. Coastal Carolina (0.1%)
  13. Old Dominion (0.1%)
  14. ULM (0.1%)

Appalachian State (71st) had a tremendous run in conference play en route to the regular-season title. After losing two of their first three games, the Mountaineers won 25 of their next 28, including their last six in which five came by double digits. They beat their top foe in the conference this season, James Madison (72nd), twice.

The Dukes were ranked in the AP Poll after winning their first 14 games of the season, including an overtime win against then-No. 4 Michigan State in East Lansing. They finished 15-3 in conference play, but that was still not enough for the regular-season title. Still, they are the favorites to represent the Sun Belt as a 12 or 13 seed in the NCAA Tournament.

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  1. Gonzaga (43.5%)
  2. Saint Mary’s (42.6%)
  3. San Francisco (9.4%)
  4. Santa Clara (4.2%)
  5. Loyola Marymount (0.3%)
  6. Pacific (<0.1%)
  7. Pepperdine (<0.1%)
  8. Portland (<0.1%)
  9. San Diego (<0.1%)

Saint Mary’s (No. 9) has been a TRACR favorite almost all season, but the Gaels ended the regular season losing by 13 at home to Gonzaga (11th). Either way, both teams will make the NCAA Tournament – the question is whether someone else could steal a bubble team’s spot.

Santa Clara (96th) has wins over Gonzaga, Washington State and Oregon (78th). The triple-bye format hurts the Broncos’ chances of winning the tournament title, but perhaps they could pull off the upset.

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  1. Grand Canyon (53.1%)
  2. UT Arlington (15.8%)
  3. Tarleton St. (14.2%)
  4. Seattle (8.3%)
  5. Stephen F. Austin (3.6%)
  6. Utah Valley (2.5%)
  7. Abilene Christian (1.6%)
  8. California Baptist (0.9%)

Bryce Drew has done a tremendous job with Grand Canyon and will try to win an NCAA Tournament game for the first time since his famous performance as a player in 1998. People forget that Valpo made the Sweet 16 that year, too!

The Antelopes lost two games on the road in late February before rallying for two 20-point wins. They will have one more regular-season game before another double-bye tournament. This should help them avoid a conference upset.

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Don’t forget to check out the women’s conference tournament predictions.

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