Using the Opta supercomputer’s predictions, we’re able to look at the chances of each team lifting the Premier League title at the end of the season. As the campaign goes on, we’ll track the chance of each of the frontrunners in the title race.
Only two Premier League matches were played in midweek, but both had big implications on the title race.
First, Manchester City hosted Brentford at the Etihad Stadium on Tuesday evening. With City enjoying a 3-1 away win against the Bees just three weeks ago, many expected another comfortable night for Pep Guardiola’s side. However, they only won by a single Erling Haaland goal, scored 19 minutes from time.
Haaland’s strike means he’s now scored against all 21 teams he’s faced in the Premier League, and when the striker scores, it’s usually great news for Man City – they’ve never lost a league game that he’s netted in.
Just 24 hours later, an injury-ravaged Liverpool hosted Luton Town at Anfield. The Reds’ fans would have been nervous at half-time as they trailed 1-0, but four second-half goals sent Liverpool back to the top of the table having played a game more than their rivals.
This win means that Liverpool have now won a league-high 22 points from losing positions in the competition in 2023-24 and equal their own club record within a single Premier League season, level with 2008-09.
Following these two matches. Man City still hold the edge in the Opta supercomputer’s season projections. Their current chance of a fourth successive Premier League title stands at 46.7%, which is above Liverpool’s 40.4%. It could have been so much worse for Jürgen Klopp’s team, though.
In the seconds before Virgil van Dijk and Cody Gakpo’s quickfire double to turn a 1-0 deficit into a 2-1 lead, Liverpool’s chance of winning the Premier League title had fallen to 30.1%. The Opta supercomputer was so sure of a Liverpool win in this fixture (78.4%) that any points dropped would have gone massively against their chances of title success.
Arsenal – who suffered a poor 1-0 UEFA Champions League defeat in Porto on Wednesday – still have a game in hand on Liverpool and see their current chances of winning the title at 12.9% with the supercomputer.
With Liverpool in EFL Cup final action this weekend, Manchester City host Bournemouth – a team that they have won all 13 Premier League games against, while Arsenal host Newcastle – a fixture that’s had its fair share of bad blood in recent memory.
It could be a pivotal weekend in the title race.
A Manchester City slip and the title race has been blown (nearly) wide open. It’s not quite a straight three-way race yet, but it’s now about as close as it’s been all season, with Liverpool and Arsenal both capitalising this weekend on City dropping points.
Liverpool began proceedings with a convincing 4-1 win at Brentford in Saturday’s lunchtime kick-off, before Arsenal blew Burnley away, winning 5-0 at Turf Moor. Mikel Arteta’s side have now scored five or more goals in three of their last five Premier League games (also 5-0 vs Crystal Palace and 6-0 vs West Ham), netting a total of 21 goals in those five matches, all of which they have won. That run of 15 points from 15 has seen them storm back into the title race.
In the late game on Saturday, City then stumbled against Chelsea, with Rodri rescuing a 1-1 draw after Raheem Sterling’s opener. It was the first time they have failed to win a game in any competition since mid-December’s 2-2 draw with Palace, and it had a significant impact on the title race according to the Opta supercomputer. City’s title chances plunged from 67.7% last Monday to 46.5% today, making it more likely after this weekend’s results that one of Liverpool or Arsenal win the title than City.
Liverpool’s chances have gone up to 38.4% – putting them closer to City in terms of their title chances than they have been all season – while Arsenal are given a 15.0% chance. They aren’t quite as likely to win the league as they were just before Christmas – when their chances went as high as 29.9% – but they are back in with a very good shout.
If Spurs were still clinging on to any hope of a title race, those hopes were as good as extinguished this weekend as they fell to a hugely disappointing 2-1 home defeat to Wolves. Last week, their manager had been asked about the Opta supercomputer rating his team’s title chances at 0.1%. He replied: “A supercomputer! Does it go into a phone booth and change into something else from just a normal computer? What did it say, 0.1%? So we got a chance then. Let’s go for it. No problems, no issues with that, we’ve got a chance.”
Unfortunately, the chance of Spurs winning the title is now low enough that when rounded to one decimal place, it is 0.0%. The title race isn’t completely over for Postecoglou’s side, but it very, very nearly is, according to the supercomputer.
Aston Villa swapped places in the table with Spurs and took that 0.1% chance off them, too. A 2-1 win at Fulham took Villa back into the top four, and they are now the ones clinging on to an outside chance of a late surge for the title.
Suffice to say, it was a bad weekend for Aston Villa. It doesn’t bode well that they followed up their first home defeat in the Premier League in over 11 months against Newcastle with another, having also been beaten on home turf by Chelsea in the FA Cup in midweek.
Their title chances – according to the Opta supercomputer – only stood at 0.2% heading into Matchday 24, but Villa’s 2-1 home defeat to Manchester United on Sunday coupled with wins for all their rivals has seen their chances drop to just 0.01%. Enter your favourite Dumb & Dumber meme here.
Manchester City maintained their ominous form as they beat Everton 2-0 thanks to a second-half brace from Erling Haaland. That makes it six league wins in a row for the defending champions since their brief hiatus to win the FIFA Club World Cup in December.
Pep Guardiola’s side increased their favourites tag to retain the title with their latest victory at the Etihad Stadium, moving up from 66.2% to 67.7%.
Their likeliest competition still comes from familiar foes Liverpool, who bounced back from their loss at Arsenal last week to beat Burnley 3-1 on Saturday. It wasn’t a straightforward win for Jürgen Klopp’s men and wasn’t the first time Vincent Kompany has looked to give them problems in a title race, but headers from Diogo Jota, Luis Díaz and Darwin Núñez gave them the win at Anfield.
Due primarily to City’s victory, though, Liverpool’s chances of sending Klopp off into the sunset with a second Premier League title still dropped according to the supercomputer, going from 26.1% to 24%.
It was another big win for Arsenal, though, not just in terms of importance but in the sheer number of goals scored. They wiped the floor with West Ham in a tremendously one-sided London derby. Declan Rice was predictably among the scorers in a 6-0 trouncing at London Stadium on Sunday.
The supercomputer still doesn’t view the Gunners as particularly strong challengers to City, but we did at least see a rise in their percentage from 7.4% to 8.2%. Keep up the form that has seen them win their first four league games of 2024 and that number will continue to go up.
Tottenham just about kept their name in the reckoning with a 96th-minute winner against Brighton. Ange Postecoglou’s side have conceded more 90+ minute goals than any other team in the Premier League this season but have now scored the joint-most 90+ minute winners (three – level with Man Utd) thanks to Brennan Johnson’s late strike at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium.
They remain on just a 0.1% likelihood of winning the league, but luckily for Spurs their manager won’t be concerned. Postecoglou said of our supercomputer just last week: “A supercomputer? Does it go to a phone booth and change into something else from just a normal computer?
“What did it say, 0.1%? So, we got a chance then. Let’s go for it. No problems, no issues with that. We’ve got a chance.”
Arsenal may have defeated league leaders Liverpool at the Emirates Stadium on Sunday afternoon, but it was Manchester City who were the overall winners from Matchday 23 of the Premier League season.
At kick-off in north London on Sunday, Man City’s chances of a record fourth Premier League title in a row stood at 54.5%, with Liverpool on 41.4% and Arsenal at 3.7%. Following the Gunners’ win and City’s victory at Brentford on Monday night, the defending champions have moved up to 66.2% – their highest projected chance since before kick-off in their 1-0 defeat at Aston Villa on 6 December.
Of course, with every winner is a loser. The loser after MD 23 is undoubtedly Liverpool, who’s meek performance in the defeat to Arsenal has seen their title chances fall by 15.3% since kick-off on Sunday. Of course, they still currently lead the league table, but for how long? Pep Guardiola’s side have a game in hand at home to Brentford coming up in two weeks’ time, now knowing that a win in that match (depending on results before it) could see them move a point ahead of Jürgen Klopp’s Reds.
With Arsenal now only two points off Liverpool, their fans will be surprised to see their current chances of a first Premier League title win since 2004 projected at just 7.4%, even if that has doubled in less than 48 hours. Lack of title success in the last 20 years will be one reason for this, with the Opta supercomputer leaning towards the recent power of Liverpool and Man City in the competition.
Arsenal came close to upsetting things last season but ultimately fell short despite leading the table for 248 days overall – an English top-flight record for a side that failed to go on and win the title. The Gunners have spent just 23 days top of the Premier League so far this season, but keeping close and stealing the title at the last would suit them just fine.
The midweek Premier League fixtures involving those in the title race didn’t throw up many surprises, apart from arguably at Villa Park on Tuesday.
It was a far from ideal Matchday 22 for Aston Villa. Given they were thrashed 5-1 by Newcastle United on MD 1 at St James’ Park, it should perhaps not have been much a surprise that Eddie Howe’s men also won 3-1 in the reverse fixture. However, it was Villa’s first Premier League home defeat since last February and just Newcastle’s second away league win of the season, so it did raise some eyebrows.
One thing that certainly wasn’t raised was Villa’s title chance percentage, which has dipped from 1.0% to 0.1% according to the Opta supercomputer.
Arsenal took advantage on Tuesday by overcoming Nottingham Forest 2-1 at the City Ground. It may not have done much for their chances, with the supercomputer only increasing them from 2.5% to 3.3%, but should they beat Liverpool at the Emirates Stadium on Sunday, that could well be a significant difference maker.
Speaking of which, Jürgen Klopp might be off soon but his players seem determined to give him a big finish at Liverpool. The Premier League leaders cemented their place at the top with a convincing 4-1 win over Chelsea at Anfield on Wednesday, and are closing in on Manchester City in terms of title chances. Our predictor has given their likelihood a boost from 36.6% up to 42.1% to hand Klopp a goodbye league title.
Man City didn’t let Liverpool increase their lead after they dispatched Burnley 3-1 at the Etihad Stadium. Because of the Reds’ victory, though, the defending champions have seen their predictor percentage dip. Having had a 59.7% chance after the last matchday, Pep Guardiola’s men now retain their crown in just 54.4% of the supercomputer’s 10,000 simulations.
Tottenham leapfrogged Villa in the table up to fourth on goals scored after their 3-2 victory over Brentford on Wednesday. Ange Postecoglou’s side were made to work for it by the Bees, but seal a win they did, even though due to others winning above them, their title chances have gone down from 0.2% to 0.1%.
The second half of MD 21 saw title contenders Arsenal and Liverpool in action.
Manchester City had to watch on as both enjoyed big victories. With a 5-0 thrashing of Crystal Palace, the Gunners registered their joint-biggest margin of victory in a Premier League London derby, alongside a 5-0 win against Wimbledon back in April 1998. It was a much-needed win for Mikel Arteta’s men who put a four-game winless run to bed.
It didn’t increase their chances of winning the title however, and that’s because on Sunday afternoon a second-half salvo from Liverpool saw them score four goals to blow away Bournemouth. It was the first time Liverpool had scored four or more goals in a Premier League away game this season, while it was their largest away league winning margin since April 2023 at Leeds (6-1).
Darwin Núñez and Diogo Jota both scored twice, taking each player into double figures for goals in all competitions for the Reds this season as Jürgen Klopp’s men extended their lead at the Premier League summit to five points. That win saw them increase their chances of Premier League glory by 4.7%, and they’re now a 36.6% shot to win the title according to the Opta supercomputer.
Liverpool’s win knocked the chasing pack’s chances down. City’s title odds dropped by 4.0%, while Arsenal (-0.3%), Aston Villa (-0.4%) and Tottenham (-0.1%) all saw their overall chances decrease slightly.
With Matchday 21 spread over two weeks due to the Premier League’s winter break, just 10 teams were in action this past weekend. There was still plenty of intrigue at the top of the table though, with Manchester City, Aston Villa and Tottenham all in action.
It was City, of course, who were the big winners from the first half of MD 21 (what we’ve creatively called MD 21 (A) in the graphic below). Not only did they pick up a huge three points away at Newcastle, but they did so courtesy of Kevin De Bruyne, who made his first appearance in 155 days.
As we mused ahead of the contest, De Bruyne could be the difference in the title race this season, and his stunning 25-minute cameo did little to dissuade us. Trailing 2-1, the Belgian scored the equaliser and then assisted Oscar Bobb’s last-minute winner with an outrageous pass.
According to the Opta supercomputer, that win saw City strengthen their grip on the title by an extra 3.2%.
In fact, Pep Guardiola’s side were the only team to see their title odds increase after MD 21 (A). Aston Villa (-1.5%) and Tottenham (-0.2%) – both outsiders in the race – were held to draws against Everton and Manchester United on Sunday. Liverpool (-0.2%) and Arsenal (-1.2%) didn’t play this weekend, but both saw their title chances take a hit due to Man City’s win.
For the moment, this remains a two-horse race between Man City (63.7%) and Liverpool (31.9%), with old foes Jürgen Klopp and Guardiola set to do battle once more.
In early December when we looked at the fixture difficulty of each side’s next five Premier League matches, we alerted Arsenal fans that it had the potential to be a tough run of games. Only Crystal Palace had a trickier Christmas period than the Gunners, and with just five points collected from those five games, it proved to be the case for Mikel Arteta’s side.
December started well for Arsenal, with a home win over Wolves followed up by a dramatic 4-3 comeback victory over Luton at Kenilworth Road on 5 December, but then they began to falter.
A harsh 1-0 defeat at Aston Villa, where they should have got something and even had a late goal controversially ruled out, was followed by an impressive 2-0 home win over Brighton and an excellent point away at Liverpool before Christmas.
That point ensured that Arsenal would top the Premier League at Christmas for a second successive year. The problem for Arsenal? They have failed to go on and win the league in each of the last five top-flight seasons in which they have held first place on Xmas Day. Results since then have made that curse feel real.
After drawing with Liverpool, Arsenal went on to win the Premier League title in 26.8% of the Opta supercomputer’s 10,000 season simulations. Back-to-back defeats versus London rivals West Ham and Fulham over the space of four days have seen Arsenal’s projected title chance fall to just 4.0%, however.
With Man City away in Saudi Arabia, winning the FIFA Club World Cup, Pep Guardiola’s men saw their game on 23 December against Brentford postponed, but despite only having two league matches over the festive and new year period, they have been the biggest winners. Their projected title chance has jumped 15.8% from 44.7% on 23 December to 60.5% today following wins over Everton and Sheffield United.
Starting the season as overwhelming favourites with the Opta supercomputer, they began to see their chances of a record fourth consecutive top-flight English league title drop after a terrible four-game run without a win (D3 L1) between 12 November and 6 December. That dropped as low as 39.3% following Crystal Palace’s late comeback in the 2-2 draw at the Etihad Stadium on 16 December.
Liverpool have taken advantage of Arsenal and Manchester City’s mixed form across the last two months, with their projected chance of a title win now at 32.1% – 10% higher than it was on Christmas Eve. A 2-0 win over Burnley on Boxing Day was followed by their fantastic attacking performance in the 4-2 victory against Newcastle on New Year’s Day.
Aston Villa may only be three points off leaders Liverpool but could be overtaken by Manchester City with their game in hand. Their chances currently stand at 2.9%, which is down from 7.9% on the morning of their match against bottom side Sheffield United at Villa Park on 22 December. They only managed to win a point in that game – and even that was salvaged by a goal deep into injury time. This was followed by a disappointing 3-2 defeat at Manchester United in a game they led 2-0 at half-time. A late 3-2 home win over struggling Burnley on 30 December has ended that two-game winless streak, but with Liverpool and Man City starting to kick on, Villa’s best hope could be a top-four finish.
They are still well-placed to do this, with 69.4% of current Opta supercomputer season simulations seeing them finish inside the top four, behind Man City (99.5%), Liverpool (98.2%) and Arsenal (80.8%). Tottenham (35.5%) and West Ham – 10.1% before tonight’s meeting with Brighton – are slight outsiders, with Manchester United way behind. Erik ten Hag’s side finished inside the top four places of the Premier League in just 0.6% of the current 10,000 season sims.
With all the drama of a Christmas special, the Premier League title race threw up some more twists and turns on Matchdays 18 and 19.
All but four teams have now reached the halfway stage, and leading the way at the top of the table are Liverpool, who followed up their 1-1 draw with Arsenal with a 2-0 win at Burnley on Boxing Day. Early and late goals, respectively, from Darwin Núñez and a returning Diogo Jota at Turf Moor gave Jürgen Klopp’s men all three points, meaning they now have 13 more (42) than they did at this stage last season.
The same cannot be said for Arsenal, whose point at Anfield would have seemed like a good one had it not been for their 2-0 defeat to West Ham at the Emirates Stadium on Thursday. Goals from Tomás Soucek and former Gunner Konstantinos Mavropanos handed Mikel Arteta’s men their third Premier League defeat of the campaign, and dented their title hopes in the process. They may be just two points off the top but have 10 fewer than they did at this stage last season. All this leaves Liverpool as comfortable second favourites for the title, with Klopp’s side now rated at 27.3% by the Opta supercomputer to go all the way. Arsenal have seen their title probability reduce by almost half compared to the last time we checked, though. On 18 December, their chances were rated at 29.9%; those have slid down to 15.3%.
The big beneficiary of Arsenal’s slip-up is Manchester City. The defending Premier League champions missed out on MD 18 to go and win the FIFA Club World Cup in Saudi Arabia, before returning to resume normal service as they eventually eased past Everton at Goodison Park on Wednesday.
We say “normal service”. Prior to that game, City had only won one of their previous six league outings (D4 L1), and when Jack Harrison gave Everton the lead, Pep Guardiola may have been fearing the worst. However, second-half goals from Phil Foden, Julián Álvarez and Bernardo Silva secured a much-needed win for City, who keep their tag as heavy favourites for the title despite being five points from the summit.
The Opta supercomputer hands them a 55.1% chance of making it a record four titles in a row from here, well up from the 39.3% it stood at when they left for Saudi Arabia, showing just how beneficial the draw between Liverpool and Arsenal was for them, coupled with their own victory at Everton and Arsenal’s subsequent loss to West Ham.
Aston Villa’s recent wobble may have also helped slightly. Unai Emery’s side could have gone top with a win over Sheffield United at Villa Park on MD 18, but a shock draw with the Blades that brought their remarkable winning run at home to an end was followed up with a limp second-half display at Old Trafford on Boxing Day.
Villa raced out to a 2-0 lead against an out-of-sorts Manchester United, but hadn’t anticipated Bruno Fernandes, Marcus Rashford and, in particular, Alejandro Garnacho figuring out how to beat their offside trap. Failing to learn their lesson, they seemed helpless to stop United from turning the game around, with the hosts eventually winning 3-2 thanks to a Garnacho brace and Rasmus Højlund’s first Premier League goal.
It seemed the supercomputer was finally starting to see Villa as potential champions after MD 17, but their 6.8% chance of winning the title has dropped back down to just 1.9%.
Tottenham’s chances haven’t been hit as badly despite a defeat, but frankly that’s largely because they weren’t particularly fancied beforehand. They followed up their 2-1 win over Everton before Christmas with a 4-2 loss at Brighton on Thursday, reducing their likelihood of winning the title from 0.4% to 0.3%.
West Ham arguably had the best Christmas period, securing wins against both Man Utd and Arsenal. That has actually seen the supercomputer make them the only other Premier League team deemed worthy of the slightest of chances of winning the title. Granted, it’s just 0.01%, but you’ve all seen the Jim Carrey meme.
As for top-four chances, the supercomputer still seems relatively certain about three of the final four. Man City (99.2%), Liverpool (97.1%) and Arsenal (93.8%) all finished in the top four in well over 90% of the 10,000 simulations, while Villa (65.8%) still have a very good chance if they can get back to winning ways.
Tottenham (30.5%) are the only other team with a greater than 6% chance of forcing their way in, ahead of West Ham (5.9%), Brighton (3.2%), Man Utd (2.4%) and Newcastle (1.8%).
In recent seasons, title races in the Premier League have often just been ‘you win, we win’ week after week, making for a tense and consistent battle. In December, we have been having the added spice of teams in the title race not winning every game, and what glorious drama it is providing.
Granted, there was little glorious drama at Anfield on Sunday as Manchester United became the first team to stop Liverpool from scoring in a game this season, and also the first to stop them from winning at home.
The 0-0 draw was a blow to Liverpool’s title chances, but not for a lack of trying as Jürgen Klopp’s men fired 34 shots at United’s goal, their most shots without scoring in a Premier League game on record (since 2003-04), with the Reds’ previous highest 30 vs West Brom in 2012 and vs Stoke in 2008. It was also the fifth most by any team in the Premier League, with the most being Chelsea against West Ham in January 2014 (39).
The Opta supercomputer has not looked favourably on Liverpool’s stalemate with their old rival, reducing their title chances from 31.5% to 23.6% as a result.
That drop would have been even worse had it not been for another surprise result on Saturday, with Manchester City held 2-2 by Crystal Palace at the Etihad Stadium. All seemed to be going swimmingly for the defending champions despite missing Erling Haaland, with Jack Grealish and Rico Lewis putting them two up, before Jean-Philippe Mateta and a stoppage-time penalty from Michael Olise levelled things up for Palace.
City had already taken quite a hit in recent weeks and were down at 47.8% before the weekend, but prior to Olise’s penalty the supercomputer had them at 57.3% to retain their title. Given the high expectation of them winning the game, it therefore had a significant impact when Olise scored, with Guardiola’s men now down to 39.3% to win the league for a record fourth time in a row.
The big beneficiaries from the weekend were Arsenal, whose 2-0 win over Brighton at the Emirates Stadium saw them leapfrog Liverpool back to the top of the table, and also in the supercomputer percentages.
Mikel Arteta’s men are closing in fast on Man City, now with a 29.9% chance of winning the title, up from just 16.6% last week.
Aston Villa continue to rise in the supercomputer’s reckoning, albeit perhaps not quite as quickly as some may have anticipated. An impressive 2-1 comeback win for Unai Emery’s men in an action-packed encounter at Brentford raised their chances from 4.1% to 6.8%.
Tottenham are keeping their rivals honest too, with their 2-0 win at Nottingham Forest on Friday seeing them rise from 0.1% to 0.4%. Put another good run of wins together over Christmas and Ange Postecoglou’s side could muscle their way back into the hunt.
It’s reached that point of the season. As an early Christmas present, Opta Analyst brings you the first in what will be a weekly running blog between now and the end of the campaign, updating you on where we’re at with the Premier League title race.
At the start of the season, we detailed how the Opta supercomputer saw Manchester City as overwhelming favourites to retain their crown, suggesting Pep Guardiola’s men won the title again in 90.2% of its 10,000 season simulations. However, in the last few weeks in particular, that percentage has significantly decreased.
City uncharacteristically wobbled during a four-game run that saw them draw three and lose one against Chelsea, Liverpool, Tottenham and Aston Villa. In fact, it led to their chances more than halving to less than 45%, though Sunday’s comeback victory at Luton Town has boosted them back up slightly to 47.8%.
That makes City fairly heavy favourites still, but new Premier League leaders Liverpool are coming up fast. It was only four games ago that Jürgen Klopp’s side won the title in just 9.3% of the supercomputer’s simulations, but now 16 games in, that has risen to 31.5%. That comes after City’s stumble and Liverpool’s run of three wins in a row after their 1-1 draw at the Etihad Stadium.
They were not entirely convincing in any of those three wins it must be said, especially their 2-1 success at Crystal Palace on Saturday where they had looked anything but likely victors before Jordan Ayew’s red card. In typically ruthless fashion, though, Mohamed Salah – scoring his 200th Liverpool goal – and substitute Harvey Elliott turned it around, with Elliott smashing in the latest in a long line of stoppage-time winners the club has managed down the years in the Premier League.
Having had just a 3.5% chance at the start of the season, it is certainly promising for Liverpool that they are up to winning the title almost a third of the time in the supercomputer’s simulations. It therefore hopefully won’t sound too patronising to Aston Villa to say that it’s also a huge achievement for them to be up to a 4.1% chance.
Their 1-0 win over Arsenal on Saturday made it a historic 15th consecutive home victory in the league for the Midlands club and took them to within a point of Mikel Arteta’s men, and just two off the top. Few will have given Unai Emery’s men a chance at the start of the campaign, least of all the Opta supercomputer, with their likelihood standing at just 0.04% before a ball was kicked, and it was only up to 0.2% as recently as four games ago.
Back-to-back home wins against Man City and Arsenal have pushed them up, though, and that percentage would surely be higher if it weren’t for the fact the supercomputer factors in performances in recent seasons, which could be why it still isn’t throwing more of its robo-weight behind them. Villa are certainly one to watch, though.
Arsenal dropped to second place after Liverpool’s win and their defeat at Villa Park. Like Liverpool, Arteta’s side had been creeping up in the title percentages, as high as 26.4% following their late win at Luton last Tuesday. However, that has fallen to just 16.6% having lost two of their last four away games in the Premier League.
Outside of the top four, the Opta supercomputer doesn’t give much hope to the chasing pack. Tottenham’s 4-1 thrashing of Newcastle United was a much-needed boost for Ange Postecoglou’s side, who had picked up just one point from their previous five games. It leaves them with a 0.06% chance of storming back to win the league, but they will be more optimistic about their chances of a top-four finish.
The supercomputer gives Spurs a 13.3% chance of finishing inside the top four, behind the more obvious contenders of Man City (99%), Liverpool (97.4%), Arsenal (94.3%) and Villa (78.9%).
Newcastle are the only other team given any chance of winning the Premier League, albeit only doing so in a rather miraculous 0.04% of simulations. That presumably requires them to get players back fit soon as their injury issues continue to take a toll. Back-to-back three-goal defeats at Everton and Spurs in the last week have been a huge blow, but Eddie Howe’s men are still given an 11.2% chance of finishing in the top four again.
That’s more than can be said for Manchester United, whose topsy-turvy campaign took another dip with a 3-0 humiliation at Old Trafford at the hands of Bournemouth on Saturday. Despite being ahead of Newcastle in the table, Erik ten Hag’s side are given just a 1.7% chance of finishing in the top four, below even Brighton (3%) in the supercomputer’s reckoning.
It promises to be a rollercoaster Christmas period, and prior to the weekend, we looked at the fixture difficulty for each Premier League team between now and the end of December.
How Does the Opta Supercomputer Model Work?
• Opta’s League Prediction model estimates the likelihood of teams finishing in each position in the competition. We can therefore see how successful a team’s season is likely to be, whether it’s their relegation or title chances.
• The model estimates the probability of each match outcome (win, draw or loss) by using betting market odds and Opta Power Rankings. The odds and rankings are based on historical and recent team performances.
• The model considers the strength of opponents by using these match outcome probabilities and simulates the remaining fixtures in the competition thousands of times. By analysing the outcome of each of these simulations, the model can see how often teams finished in each league position to create our final predictions.
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