Mauricio Pochettino’s men will look to continue their resurgence in form when they travel to St James’ Park in the Premier League on Saturday. We look ahead to the game with our data-powered Newcastle vs Chelsea preview and prediction.
Newcastle vs Chelsea Stats: Quick Hits
- The Opta prediction says that Newcastle (36.9%) are slight favourites to come out on top at St James’ Park against Chelsea (33.7%).
- Newcastle are yet to lose a single Saturday 3pm Premier League kick-off under manager Eddie Howe (won 12, drawn six).
- Since the start of October, Chelsea’s Premier League matches have seen 26 goals scored (16 for, 10 against), the most of any club.
Newcastle United and Chelsea will look to make winning returns to Premier League action following the international break when they clash at St James’ Park on Saturday.
The pause for national team fixtures came at a good time for Newcastle, who were suffering a brutal injury crisis and coming off the back of two straight defeats in all competitions, while Chelsea will have been frustrated by the interruption, having finally built up some momentum over the previous weeks.
Mauricio Pochettino’s side come into Saturday’s game having lost just one of their last eight in all competitions, aided by the fact that they have left their early-season scoring struggles very much in the rear-view mirror. They currently sit 10th in the Premier League, just four points and three places behind Newcastle in the league table.
Chelsea have netted exactly four goals in three of their last five Premier League games (4-1 vs Burnley, 4-1 vs Tottenham, 4-4 vs Manchester City), having not scored four in any of their previous 53 games before that run. If they score four again on Saturday, it will be the first time they hit four goals in three matches in a row since 2010.
Nicolas Jackson has finally started to find the back of the net on a more regular basis, scoring with four of nine attempts in his last two games (44% conversion rate) after scoring just two goals from 24 shots in his first nine Premier League appearances (8%).
Cole Palmer’s excellent start to life at Stamford Bridge has also been central to Chelsea’s improved form, involved in six goals in his last five Premier League appearances (four goals, two assists). All four goals have come from the penalty spot, with Palmer one of only two players in Premier League history to score a penalty in four out of a span of five appearances, alongside his former Man City team-mate Riyad Mahrez.
But Chelsea’s opponents this weekend have a man they can usually rely on between the sticks, with Nick Pope having kept 19 clean sheets in 49 Premier League games for Newcastle, already the most by a goalkeeper in their first 50 starts for the Magpies in the competition.
Newcastle’s home form will also give them great confidence heading into this weekend, having won their last four Premier League outings at St James’ Park without conceding a single goal. They haven’t managed that in five straight top-flight games since 1907, something Eddie Howe will be desperate to achieve after losing to Borussia Dortmund in the Champions League and and Bournemouth in the Premier League prior to the international break.
Howe has had to deal with a raft of injury problems, though the international break has helped a little, with Alexander Isak in line to make a return, while Fabian Schär and Miguel Almirón could also make an appearance. Bruno Guimarães will also be available after serving a one-match suspension against Bournemouth after picking up five yellow cards.
While they are welcome returns to the lineup, Howe’s squad is still decimated by injuries, with Harvey Barnes, Sven Botman, Elliot Anderson and Callum Wilson not expected back until December, and the start of 2024 looks a more realistic return time for Dan Burn and Jacob Murphy. On top of that, Lewis Hall is unable to face his parent club, while Sandro Tonali’s season is over having been suspended for betting offences.
Saturday could finally be the day that Chelsea fans get to watch Christopher Nkunku and Roméo Lavia in a Blues shirt, with both yet to make their debuts for the club but reportedly eyeing a return this weekend, though they may not be rushed back. Levi Colwill and Malo Gusto could also be available after pulling out of their respective international break commitments.
Wesley Fofana is a long-term absentee after undergoing surgery on his anterior cruciate ligament, while Carney Chukwuemeka and Trevoh Chalobah are also both unavailable for Saturday’s game. Ben Chilwell is nearing a return, though that is unlikely to be before early December.
Newcastle vs Chelsea Head-to-Head
Newcastle avoided defeat in both Premier League meetings with Chelsea last season (one win, one draw), having lost seven of their previous eight against then. They last enjoyed a longer unbeaten run against them between April 1994 and September 1995 (two wins, two draws).
Chelsea have lost 13 Premier League away games against Newcastle (nine wins, six draws), only losing more at Arsenal and Liverpool (15 each) in the competition.
The two clubs last met on the final day of last season, when a Kieran Trippier own goal was enough for Chelsea to earn a 1-1 draw after Anthony Gordon had put Newcastle a goal up. It was Frank Lampard’s final game as caretaker boss at Stamford Bridge after taking over from Graham Potter.
Chelsea are the Premier League’s great entertainers right now, having scored at least twice in six of their last seven matches in all competitions, having managed to do so in just two of their first eight to start the season. They are also unbeaten in their last four away games, winning three in a row heading into Saturday.
Newcastle have lost their last two games in all competitions by a 2-0 scoreline, but although they have conceded twice in three of their last five Premier League outings, only the top three have conceded fewer goals than their 13.
Chelsea have already won more Premier League points against teams starting the day above them in the league table this season (eight) than they did in the entirety of last season (five), including recent positive results against Arsenal, Tottenham and Manchester City. They are coming through a tough run of fixtures, and face Brighton, Manchester United and a resurgent Everton next.
Newcastle vs Chelsea Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system that assigns an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off this weekend, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
Newcastle vs Chelsea Prediction
The Opta supercomputer is backing Newcastle as close favourites to come out on top this weekend, winning 36.9% of the 10,000 simulations conducted ahead of Matchday 13, while Chelsea take all three points 33.7% of the time.
Only Sheffield United’s home clash with fellow strugglers Bournemouth is predicted to be a closer game than the one at St James’ Park this weekend, and Newcastle and Chelsea share the spoils in 29.4% of simulations.
While Howe’s men currently sit seventh, the Opta supercomputer believes sixth is their most likely finish come the end of the campaign, one place below their pre-season prediction of fifth, and they are still given a 24.9% chance of finishing in the Champions League places. A top-four finish for Chelsea looks unlikely, qualifying for the Champions League just 1.71% of the time, with ninth their most likely finishing position.