We’re breaking down the biggest movers in our top 25 and revealing our model’s Week 12 college football predictions for the biggest matchups.
Washington at Oregon State
Though Michael Penix Jr.’s arrival had Washington on the rise the last time it faced Oregon State, the stakes weren’t nearly as high as they will be this time around.
The transfer from Indiana averaged 366.8 passing yards with 22 touchdowns and four interceptions in his first eight games of 2022, but the Huskies weren’t much of a factor in the national title hunt after dropping games to UCLA and Arizona State.
The same can be said about the Beavers after falling to USC and Utah earlier in 2022. Oregon State, however, held Penix in check for the most part last year before the quarterback led Washington on an 18-play, 92-yard drive that set up Peyton Henry’s 22-yard field goal with 8 seconds in Washington’s 24-21 home win.
The Beavers limited Penix to 298 passing yards (a season low at the time) and just one touchdown while picking him off once. Now, they’re hoping for a similar defensive effort and to knock off Penix and the Huskies on Saturday night in Corvallis.
This time, there’s a lot more on the line as Washington enters the Pac-12 showdown fifth in the AP Top 25, fifth in our TRACR (Team Rating Adjusted for Conference and Roster) rankings and sixth in our playoff potential ratings (PPR) at 93.1. A team between 90-100 in PPR should be considered a favorite for a College Football Playoff (CFP) spot.
Though a playoff potential rating of 35.0 likely leaves it out of the CFP conversation after losses to Washington State and Arizona, Oregon State (8-2, 5-2) ranks 10th in the AP poll, eighth in TRACR and can really mix up the conference race by handing Washington (10-0, 7-0) its first loss.
Oregon (9-1, 6-1), which visits Arizona State (3-7, 2-5) on Saturday, has been chasing the Huskies since losing a 36-33 thriller in Seattle last month.
Washington has won 10 of its last 11 games against Oregon State. But the Beavers pulled out a 27-24 victory in the last meeting at home in 2021 and the last three overall have been decided by six points or less.
Of course, they’re facing an even better version of Penix in 2023. The sixth-year QB is one of the favorites to hear his name called when the Heisman Trophy winner is announced in New York. He easily leads the nation with 353.3 passing yards per game and only LSU’s Jayden Daniels (30), Oregon’s Bo Nix (29) and USC’s Caleb Williams (29) have more than his 28 touchdown passes.
Washington is fourth in offensive TRACR through the air, while Oregon State is solid but not elite at 25th in defensive TRACR against the pass.
However, one area the Beavers should be able to exploit is the Huskies’ run defense. Oregon State ranks fourth in the country in offensive TRACR on the ground, while Washington is 69th in defensive TRACR against the run.
Oregon State running back Damien Martinez has been on a roll, totaling 261 rushing yards in the last two games – wins over Colorado and Stanford. He finished with 146 yards on 9.7 per carry with four touchdowns in a 62-17 win over the Cardinal in Week 11.
He had 107 rushing yards and a 40-yard reception in last year’s meeting with Washington. Still, our model gives the Huskies a 61.7% chance of coming out of Corvallis with a win.
Week 12 NCAA Football Predictions
Which teams are the best bets? How do they compare to sportsbooks’ college football picks?
Here are our model’s win probabilities for all the TRACR CFB top 25 games:
TRACR No. 1 Michigan over No. 32 Maryland (96.4%)
No. 2 Oregon over No. 75 Arizona State (97.5%)
No. 3 Georgia over No. 19 Tennessee (84.8%)
No. 4 Ohio State over No. 66 Minnesota (95.7%)
No. 5 Washington over No. 8 Oregon State (61.7%)
No. 6 Florida State over North Alabama (99.8%)
No. 7 LSU over No. 76 Georgia State (94.4%)
No. 9 Alabama over Chattanooga (99.6%)
No. 10 Oklahoma over No. 93 BYU (95.4%)
No. 11 Kansas State over No. 40 Kansas (82.7%)
No. 12 Texas A&M over Abilene Christian (99.2%)
No. 13 Penn State over No. 37 Rutgers (79.0%)
No. 14 SMU over No. 62 Memphis (87.3%)
No. 15 Notre Dame over No. 84 Wake Forest (93.4%)
No. 16 Arizona over No. 30 Utah (72.4%)
No. 17 Texas over No. 41 Iowa State (76.3%)
No. 18 Louisville over No. 27 Miami (FL) (63.9%)
No. 20 Ole Miss over No. 117 Louisiana-Monroe (95.8%)
No. 21 North Carolina over No. 26 Clemson (58.7%)
No. 22 Auburn over No. 58 New Mexico State (76.6%)
No. 23 USC over No. 25 UCLA (50.5%)
No. 24 Missouri over No. 34 Florida (62.5%)
On the outside of the top 25 looking in: No. 26 Clemson, No. 27 Miami (FL), No. 28 Duke (at Virginia), No. 29 Liberty (vs. Massachusetts), No. 30 Utah, No. 31 Troy (vs. Louisiana), No. 32 Maryland, No. 33 Nebraska (at Wisconsin), No. 34 Florida and No. 35 James Madison (vs. Appalachian State).
No. 36 UCF (at Texas Tech), No. 37 Rutgers, No. 38 Wisconsin, No. 39 Texas State (at Arkansas State) and No. 40 Kansas round out the TRACR top 40.
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