Can Carlos Alcaraz defend his crown from last year? What chances do last year’s ladies finalists have of returning to the showpiece event? We asked the Opta supercomputer to give us its 2024 Wimbledon predictions.
Perfectly cut grass. Players dressed all in white. Iconic strawberries and cream. It can only mean one thing: Wimbledon is here.
The grass-court season reaches a thrilling climax at Wimbledon, and this year’s event promises to be no less exciting with boundless storylines to unfurl.
Last year’s winners Marketa Vondrousova and Carlos Alcaraz are back to defend their titles; Ons Jabeur will be hoping to finally win the tournament after reaching back-to-back finals; Iga Swiatek will be determined to extend her impressive 19-match winning streak, and British players hope to shine in front of their home crowd.
On a surface where surprises are common, we turn to the Opta supercomputer for its 2024 Wimbledon predictions and rankings forecast as the first round kicks off next week.
Who Will Win Wimbledon? The Quick Hits
- ATP and WTA world No. 1s Jannik Sinner and Swiatek are the favourites to win Wimbledon this year, with the supercomputer giving them a 17% and 13% chance of glory, respectively.
- World No. 2 ATP ranking up for grabs between four players: Novak Djokovic, Carlos Alcaraz, Alexander Zverev and Daniil Medvedev. Djokovic the favourite to retain that ranking (72.5%)
- Ons Jabeur and Marketa Vondrousova, last year’s finalists, are both expected to drop outside the top 10.
The Favourites to Win Wimbledon
Men’s Draw
Newly-crowned world No. 1 Jannik Sinner is the big favourite to win Wimbledon, with the Opta supercomputer giving him a 17% chance of winning the tournament.
The Italian has been excellent across all surfaces this year, and most recently won the ATP 500 Halle Open on grass.
His path to the final will not be an easy one, however. Sinner could face a past Wimbledon finalist and fellow Italian in the second round in Matteo Berrettini.
Defending champ Alcaraz is our second favourite to win the tournament (12%). The young Spaniard is a threat on any surface he plays, and has won his three grand slams on three different surfaces, most recently at Roland Garros.
Djokovic is looking for an eighth Wimbledon title, which would tie Roger Federer’s all-time record. The world No. 2 came close to achieving that last year, losing in the final to Alacarz in an epic five-set battle. The Opta supercomputer has him as the third favourite to win (9%).
This year’s Wimbledon gentleman’s draw will feature 12 players from the UK, including two-time Wimbledon champion Andy Murray (fitness permitting) and No. 28 seed Jack Draper.
The 22-year-old Draper recently won the Stuttgart Open on grass and is the 13th favourite to win it all on home soil (2%).
2024 Wimbledon Men’s Predictions:
Women’s Draw
World No. 1 Iga Swiatek comes into Wimbledon on a 19-match win streak. Her fearsome form has been noted by the Opta supercomputer and, despite never winning a WTA title on grass, she is the favourite to win the ladies’ title (13%). Swiatek achieved her best result at Wimbledon last year, losing in the quarter-finals, and won junior Wimbledon in 2018.
The Pole will certainly not have an easy path to the title and faces a past grand slam champion in Sofia Kenin in the first round.
No. 3 seed Aryna Sabalenka is another big favourite of the model’s, and the supercomputer gives her an 8% probability of winning Wimbledon. The two-time grand slam champion has not won a title since the beginning of the year at the Australian Open, but has enjoyed great results at Wimbledon recently, making two consecutive semi-finals in 2021 and 2023 (Sabalenka was not allowed to participate in 2022).
The 2022 Wimbledon champion Elena Rybakina is the third favourite to win with a 5.5% chance of doing so, while defending champion Vondrousova has a 2.6% chance of running it back – that’s the eighth-highest chance of any player.
Four Americans are among the top 12 seeds and all four of them are in the top seven contenders to win it all: Madison Keys (4.8%), Jessica Pegula (4.3%), Coco Gauff (3.8%) and Danielle Collins (2.7%).
The ladies’ draw comprises of seven players from the UK, including 2021 US Open champion Emma Raducanu and No. 32 seed Katie Boulter.
Boulter is the British woman with the highest likelihood of winning Wimbledon at 1.4% (19th highest). She recently won the Nottingham Open on grass and will be looking to cause an upset in front of the home crowd.
2024 Wimbledon Women’s Predictions:
Tour Ranking Predictions
Prize money and a slice of history are not the only thing these players are competing for, however, with rankings points also up for grabs.
Predicting each players’ rankings points from the tournament, as well as how that corresponds to their tour rank after the competition, is something the supercomputer can also do.
Here’s what it says for the top 20 players in the world on the WTA and ATP tours:
Men’s Rankings
Sinner is guaranteed to remain world No. 1 no matter what.
However, it’s world No. 2 where things get interesting. Djokovic currently holds that ranking, but could be challenged by the three players behind him. The 24-time grand slam champion has a 72.5% likelihood of remaining at world No. 2, while Zverev has a 12.4% chance of taking the spot, followed by Alcaraz (11.9%) and Medvedev (3.1%).
If defending champion Alcaraz does not reach at least the semi-final stage, he will drop outside the top three, with Zverev having the highest likelihood of taking his current spot (64.7% chance of being world No. 3 post tournament).
Women’s Rankings
Like the men’s rankings, the WTA will not see a new world No. 1 after the tournament.
Sabalenka, however, could regain second spot. She has an 11.4% likelihood of leapfrogging Gauff according to the Opta supercomputer.
Last year’s finalists, Vondrousova and Jabeur, are both expected to fall outside the top 10 in the rankings, with that outcome happening in over 94% of simulations. The Tunisian, who has made two consecutive Wimbledon finals, is expected to end the tournament as world No. 15 (32% chance), which would be her lowest ranking since January 2022.
Collins is expected to vault into the top 10 after the tournament ends (92%) while Keys could be another fellow American to join the top 10 club, with Pegula and Gauff already there. Keys has a 23% likelihood of ending Wimbledon 2024 inside the top 10.
How Our Tournament Simulator Works:
Our tournament projection model simulates the outcome of the tournament 10,000 times, estimating every player’s likelihood to get through each round of the draw based on their skill strength, where they are in the draw and the skill of the potential opponents they could face.
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