Like all good things, it had to come to an end.

The 2023-24 NBA regular season is officially in the books, and my oh my, what a season it was.

But you know what that means: Better days are upon us now with the NBA playoffs set to tip off this weekend.

To size up the action ahead, we’re previewing all eight NBA first-round matchups. The No. 7 and 8 seeds emerged out of the play-in tournament – the Philadelphia 76ers and Miami Heat, respectively, in the Eastern Conference, as well as the Los Angeles Lakers and New Orleans Pelicans in the Western Conference.

A team will have to survive three rounds within its conference to advance to the NBA Finals, which begin on June 6.

Eastern Conference

No. 1 Boston Celtics vs. No. 8 Miami Heat

  • Regular-Season Records – Boston: 64-18; Miami: 46-36
  • Head-to-Head Record – Boston 3-0 vs. Miami
  • Team Ratings – Boston: No. 1 in adjusted offensive rating, No. 3 in adjusted defensive rating, No. 1 in adjusted team rating; Miami: No. 21 in adjusted offensive rating, No. 5 in adjusted defensive rating, No. 14 in adjusted team rating
  • DRIP Leaders – Boston: Jayson Tatum (3.5); Miami: Jimmy Butler (4.5)
  • PPG/RPG/APG Leaders – Boston: Jayson Tatum (26.9)/Jayson Tatum (8.1)/Derrick White (5.2); Miami: Tyler Herro (20.8) and Jimmy Butler (20.8)/Bam Adebayo (10.4)/Jimmy Butler (5.0)
  • Biggest X-Factor – 3-Point Shooting – The Boston Celtics are the No. 1 seed in the East and one of the best teams our database has ever seen. For a heavy underdog such as the Miami Heat to beat a team like the Celtics is to have a little bit of luck. And in basketball, oftentimes, luck comes in the form of shooting variance. The C’s ranked first in the NBA in 3-point attempts during the regular season, which is good because they often make a lot of them (first in 3-pointers). However, when a team shoots a lot from behind the arc, it’s susceptible to variance. If the Celtics get cold from downtown, they may go from one of the more impressive teams we’ve ever seen to one of the most disappointing.
  • Win Probability – Boston: 86.7%; Miami: 13.3%
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(Percentages through April 19)

No. 2 New York Knicks vs. No. 7 Philadelphia 76ers

  • Regular-Season Records – New York: 50-32; Philadelphia: 47-35
  • Head-to-Head Record – New York 3-1 vs. Philadelphia
  • Team Ratings – New York: No. 4 in adjusted offensive rating, No. 11 in adjusted defensive rating, No. 5 in adjusted team rating; Philadelphia: No. 12 in adjusted offensive rating, No. 8 in adjusted defensive rating, No. 9 in adjusted team rating
  • DRIP Leaders – New York: Jalen Brunson (2.6); Philadelphia: Joel Embiid (4.6)
  • PPG/RPG/APG Leaders – New York: Jalen Brunson (28.7)/Mitchell Robinson (8.5)/Jalen Brunson (6.7); Philadelphia: Joel Embiid (34.7)/Joel Embiid (11.0)/Tyrese Maxey (6.2)
  • Biggest X-Factor – Josh Hart – It’s no secret New York Knicks coach Tom Thibodeau loves Hart. Since Feb. 1 (34 games), the shooting guard has been averaging 39.9 minutes per game. That’s great, of course, but don’t forget last season Hart struggled in the second round of the NBA playoffs because of subpar 3-point shooting. Unfortunately, he hasn’t improved as a shooter this season (31% on 3s), which is problematic because the Knicks need him this postseason (they no longer have Quentin Grimes to back him up). Against 2023 NBA MVP Joel Embiid and the Sixers, the question with the Knicks becomes: Will Hart find a way to stay on the floor?
  • Win Probability – New York: 61.3%; Philadelphia: 38.7%

No. 3 Milwaukee Bucks vs. No. 6 Indiana Pacers

  • Regular-Season Records – Milwaukee: 49-33; Indiana: 47-35
  • Head-to-Head Record: Indiana 4-1 vs. Milwaukee
  • Team Ratings – Milwaukee: No. 9 in adjusted offensive rating, No. 19 in adjusted defensive rating, No. 15 in adjusted team rating; Indiana: No. 2 in adjusted offensive rating, No. 24 in adjusted defensive rating, No. 6 in adjusted team rating
  • DRIP Leaders – Milwaukee: Giannis Antetokounmpo (4.4); Indiana: Tyrese Haliburton (3.3)
  • PPG/RPG/APG Leaders – Milwaukee: Giannis Antetokounmpo (30.4)/Giannis Antetokounmpo (11.5)/Damian Lillard (7.0); Indiana: Pascal Siakam (21.3)/Pascal Siakam (7.8)/Tyrese Haliburton (10.9).
  • Biggest X-Factor – Giannis Antetokounmpo – Just because the Indiana Pacers are a lower seed doesn’t mean they aren’t a formidable foe, as evidenced by their higher team rating and a higher win probability based on our NBA playoff predictions model. The Milwaukee Bucks aren’t beating the Pacers without their best player, Antetokounmpo, who is expected to miss the start of this playoff series due to a calf injury. But how many games does that mean? One? Two? Three? We’ve seen before that Antetokounmpo missing games against a first-round opponent doesn’t bode well for the Bucks.
  • Win Probability – Indiana: 57.8%; Milwaukee: 42.2%

No. 4 Cleveland Cavaliers vs. No. 5 Orlando Magic

  • Regular-Season Records – Cleveland: 48-34; Orlando: 47-35
  • Head-to-Head Record – Tied 2-2
  • Team Ratings – Cleveland: No. 19 in adjusted offensive rating, No. 10 in adjusted defensive rating, No. 18 in adjusted team rating; Orlando: No. 22 in adjusted offensive rating, No. 2 in adjusted defensive rating, No. 16 in adjusted team rating
  • DRIP Leaders – Cleveland: Donovan Mitchell (4.2); Orlando: Jalen Suggs (2.0)
  • PPG/RPG/APG Leaders – Cleveland: Donovan Mitchell (26.6)/Jarrett Allen (10.5)/Darius Garland (6.5); Orlando: Paolo Banchero (22.6)/Paolo Banchero (6.9)/Paolo Banchero (5.4)
  • Biggest X-Factor – J.B. Bickerstaff – Yes, consider the Cleveland Cavaliers coach to be the key to this series. Season-long readers already know our thoughts on this team (if you don’t, check out this article). The Cavaliers have talent, but the pieces don’t fit together well – they are great when some of their core four is hurt and mediocre when they’re all healthy. That brings us back to Bickerstaff. Is he willing to risk the downstream consequences (like depreciating the value of his greatest assets on the open market) that come with benching one or two of the team’s best players late in a game? If so, the Cavs can win perhaps the tightest of the first-round series (and give their next opponent a serious run for their money). But if not, they could be going home early (again).
  • Win Probability – Orlando: 52.4%; Cleveland: 47.6%

Western Conference

No. 1 Oklahoma City Thunder vs. No. 8 New Orleans Pelicans

  • Regular-Season Records – Oklahoma City: 57-25; New Orleans: 49-33
  • Head-to-Head Record: Oklahoma City 2-1 vs. New Orleans
  • Team Ratings – Oklahoma City: No. 3 in adjusted offensive rating, No. 4 in adjusted defensive rating, No. 2 in adjusted team rating; New Orleans: No. 11 in adjusted offensive rating, No. 7 in adjusted defensive rating, No. 8 in adjusted team rating
  • DRIP Leaders – Oklahoma City: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (4.2); New Orleans: Trey Murphy III (2.4)
  • PPG/RPG/APG Leaders – Oklahoma City: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (30.1)/Chet Holmgren (7.9)/Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (6.2); New Orleans: Zion Williamson (22.9)/Jonas Valanciunas (8.8)/Brandon Ingram (5.7)
  • Biggest X-Factor – OKC’s Fifth Guy – When the Oklahoma City Thunder close games, you can almost guarantee Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Williams, Chet Holmgren and Lu Dort will be on the floor. But who will be the West No. 1 seed’s fifth player? Josh Giddey’s defensive shortcomings and below-average shooting (33.7% on 3-pointers) make it hard to keep him on the floor down the stretch. Isaiah Joe is a marksman (41.6%), but there are question marks about his defense (-0.5 D-DRIP). Cason Wallace can shoot (41.9%) and defend (0.6 D-DRIP), but he’s unproven. Gordon Hayward was supposed to fill this role, but he’s only scored in double figures in three of his 26 games with the team. All of these options come with a degree of mystery, but at least one of them needs to fill the void.
  • Win Probability – Oklahoma City: 67.7%; New Orleans: 32.3%

No. 2 Denver Nuggets vs. No. 7 Los Angeles Lakers

  • Regular-Season Records – Denver: 57-25; Los Angeles: 47-35
  • Head-to-Head Record: Denver 3-0 vs. Los Angeles
  • Team Ratings – Denver: No. 5 in adjusted offensive rating, No. 6 in adjusted defensive rating, No. 4 in adjusted team rating; Los Angeles: No. 15 in adjusted offensive rating, No. 15 in adjusted defensive rating, No. 17 in adjusted team rating
  • DRIP Leaders – Denver: Nikola Jokic (5.6); Los Angeles: LeBron James (2.9)/Anthony Davis (2.9)
  • PPG/RPG/APG Leaders – Denver: Nikola Jokic (26.4)/Nikola Jokic (12.4)/Nikola Jokic (9.0); Los Angeles: LeBron James (25.7)/Anthony Davis (12.6)/LeBron James (8.3)
  • Biggest X-Factor – Taurean Prince – One of the big reasons the Los Angeles Lakers fell to the Denver Nuggets in last year’s Western Conference Finals is they struggled to defend the eventual NBA champion’s offense without sacrificing their spacing. Prince wasn’t there last year, but he is now, and he symbolizes a blend of defense/spacing (39.6% 3-point shooter) the Lakers didn’t have in the past. Still, our win probability indicates it’s going to be an uphill battle for LA after advancing out of the play-in tournament. But if Prince plays the way he should in theory, this series could get interesting (you could make the same argument with Gabe Vincent, but Prince has more size).
  • Win Probability – Denver: 72.1%; Los Angeles: 27.9%
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No. 3 Minnesota Timberwolves vs. No. 6 Phoenix Suns

  • Regular-Season Records – Minnesota: 56-26; Phoenix: 49-33
  • Head-to-Head Record – Phoenix 3-0 vs. Minnesota
  • Team Ratings – Minnesota: No. 18 in adjusted offensive rating, No. 1 in adjusted defensive rating, No. 3 in adjusted team rating; Phoenix: No. 6 in adjusted offensive rating, No. 13 in adjusted defensive rating, No. 7 in adjusted team rating
  • DRIP Leaders – Minnesota: Rudy Gobert (2.9); Phoenix: Devin Booker (4.4)
  • PPG/RPG/APG Leaders – Minnesota: Anthony Edwards (25.9)/Rudy Gobert (12.9)/Mike Conley (5.9). Phoenix: Devin Booker (27.1) and Kevin Durant (27.1)/Jusuf Nurkic (11.0)/Devin Booker (6.9).
  • Biggest X-Factor: Bradley Beal – The Minnesota Timberwolves’ No. 1-ranked defense can count on Jaden McDaniels to guard Devin Booker and Anthony Edwards to check Kevin Durant. But what about Beal? When the teams met in a regular-season finale, the Timberwolves tried to put Mike Conley on Beal, and the Suns guard responded with 33 points on 19 shots. If he keeps up that pace in this series, he’ll force the T-wolves to make some tough decisions. Minnesota needs Conley to run its offense (team leader in assists), but if he keeps getting crushed by Beal, will the T-wolves give some of his minutes to defensive-stopper Nickeil Alexander-Walker? If that happens, their defense gets better, but their offense gets way worse. Does it get so bad that the Phoenix Suns steal the series?
  • Win Probability – Minnesota: 60.2%; Phoenix: 39.8%

No. 4 Los Angeles Clippers vs. No. 5 Dallas Mavericks

  • Regular-Season Records – Los Angeles: 51-31; Dallas: 50-32
  • Head-to-Head Record: Los Angeles 2-1 vs. Dallas
  • Team Ratings – Los Angeles: No. 7 in adjusted offensive rating, No. 18 in adjusted defensive rating, No. 12 in adjusted team rating. Dallas: No. 10 in adjusted offensive rating, No. 16 in adjusted defensive rating, No. 13 in adjusted team rating
  • DRIP Leaders – Los Angeles: Kawhi Leonard (4.6); Dallas: Luka Doncic (6.1)
  • PPG/RPG/APG Leaders – Los Angeles: Kawhi Leonard (23.7)/Ivica Zubac (9.2)/James Harden (8.5); Dallas: Luka Doncic (33.9)/Luka Doncic (9.2)/Luka Doncic (9.8)
  • Biggest X-Factor – Kawhi Leonard – Like the Bucks-Pacers series, this series hinges on An All-Star player with injury concerns. Leonard missed the final eight games with knee swelling. That is especially concerning since knee injuries cut his 2021 and ‘23 playoffs short, and forced him to miss the 2022 playoffs entirely. Without him, the Clippers are in rough shape against a Dallas Mavericks team that has been red-hot since the NBA trade deadline (winning 18 of their last 21 games to close out the regular season). The good news for the Clippers is Leonard is looking like he will be available for Game 1 (unlike Antetokounmpo).
  • Win Probability – Los Angeles: 52.4%; Dallas: 47.6%

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