We look ahead to Saturday night’s 8pm kick-off with our Brentford vs Manchester United prediction and preview.
Brentford vs Manchester United Stats: Quick Hits
- The Opta supercomputer struggled to split these two sides, with Manchester United winning 38.3% and Brentford triumphing in 32.8% of pre-match simulations.
- Brentford have lost seven of their last nine league meetings with Man Utd (W1 D1).
- United have won more games by a one-goal margin than any other side in the Premier League this season, with 12 of their 15 wins coming by a single goal.
Match Preview
Manchester United will be hoping to utilise the momentum from their dramatic FA Cup extra-time victory over rivals Liverpool when they visit Brentford at the Gtech Community Stadium for Saturday’s late Premier League kick-off.
Amad Diallo was the late, late hero against Jürgen Klopp’s Reds at Old Trafford before the international break, scoring in the 121st minute before being shown a second yellow card for his celebration. United won the game 4-3 after extra-time to reach the FA Cup semi-finals, where they will face Championship side Coventry City at Wembley next month.
Scott McTominay, Antony and Marcus Rashford were also on the scoresheet as United claimed another Merseyside scalp, having beaten Everton at home just a week prior. Their 2-0 victory over the relegation-threatened Toffees saw Rashford and Bruno Fernandes both convert penalties.
Despite the positivity surrounding those back-to-back triumphs, Erik ten Hag still has a monumental task at hand as sixth-placed Man Utd sit nine points adrift of Aston Villa in fourth – and the subsequent UEFA Champions League qualification that position would secure – heading into this weekend’s action.
Ten Hag’s plight has not been aided by injury issues, with Lisandro Martínez, Anthony Martial, Tyrell Malacia, Harry Maguire and Luke Shaw all out. However, Casemiro, Jonny Evans and backup goalkeeper Altay Bayindir could be fit enough for Saturday’s kick-off in the capital.
Ten Hag can, however, still call upon Fernandes, who has created more chances than any other player in the Premier League this season (82). Opta has this data available from the 2003-04 campaign onwards, in which time only Ryan Giggs (2.9) has a better chances-created-per-90 average for Man Utd than the Portuguese maestro (2.8, minimum 500 minutes).
Midfield partner McTominay has also been involved in 12 goals in all competitions for United this season, registering his highest figures for both goals (nine) and assists (three) in a single campaign. He could be the first Scottish player to reach double figures for goals in one term for the Red Devils since Brian McClair in 1991-92 (25).
However, there may be some defensive issues for Ten Hag to ponder. In the period between the 16th and 30th minute, United have faced 92 shots in the Premier League this term, the most any side has faced in a 15-minute block (excluding injury time at the end of a half). This is also the period in which Brentford have scored the majority of their Premier League goals this term (9 – 22%).
Brentford have their own concerns to worry about, though, as Thomas Frank’s 15th-placed side sit just five points clear of Nottingham Forest – who were deducted four points earlier this month for breaches of the Premier League’s Profit and Sustainability Rules – in the last relegation position.
Saturday’s hosts fell to a 2-1 defeat in their last outing at Burnley, with Kristoffer Ajer’s late header not enough to salvage a point after Sergio Reguilón’s early red card. Clarets duo Jacob Bruun Larsen and David Datro Fofana scored the goals for the hosts.
As for the home side’s team news, Reguilón’s suspension means the Spanish defender joins Christian Nørgaard, Kevin Schade, Aaron Hickey, Ben Mee, Rico Henry and Joshua Dasilva on Frank’s lengthy absentee list.
Ivan Toney at least scored on his full England international debut, netting a penalty in Tuesday’s 2-2 draw with Belgium at Wembley, and Frank will look for his attacking star to carry the load. Yoane Wissa may also be an option but Brentford have lost three of their last four Premier League games in which he has scored, drawing the other.
Brentford had only lost one of their previous 17 league matches in which Wissa found the net (W12 D4), but the forward may miss out, with Neal Maupay waiting for another chance up top. Key attacker Bryan Mbeumo made an encouraging return from injury in a second-half cameo at Burnley.
Brentford vs Manchester United Head-to-Head
Brentford have lost seven of their last nine league meetings with Manchester United (W1 D1), though they did win this exact fixture 4-0 last season as Dasilva, Mathias Jensen, Mee and Mbeumo were all on target.
United’s seven league visits to Brentford have also produced a total of 30 goals (F13 A17), an average of 4.3 per game, yet both of their top-flight away defeats to the Bees have been by a 4-0 scoreline (October 1936 and August 2022).
Frank’s side lost the reverse meeting this term, though, as McTominay’s late double – scored in the 93rd and 97th minute – salvaged an unlikely 2-1 triumph after Jensen’s first-half opener at Old Trafford. It was the latest United have ever come back from a trailing position to win a Premier League match.
However, Ten Hag’s men have won just one of their last eight Premier League away games against London sides (D2 L5), losing four of their last five. They’ve lost three of their four such visits this season, last losing more in a single top-flight campaign in 1989-90 (four).
Recent Form
Brentford may be concerned as only the bottom two sides, Burnley and Sheffield United (20 each), have lost more Premier League games than them (17) so far this season.
Indeed, following a three-game winning run across October and November, Brentford have won just three of their last 18 in the competition (D1 L14). That serious downturn in form has created some fear of relegation now.
It may be that one decisive moment is enough in this clash, though, considering United have won more games by a one-goal margin than any other side in the league this season, with 12 of their 15 wins coming by a single goal.
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system that assigns an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off this weekend, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
Brentford vs Manchester United Predicted Lineups
Brentford vs Manchester United Prediction
The Opta supercomputer remained somewhat split on this late kick-off, with Man Utd slight favourites to win in 38.3% of 10,000 pre-match simulations. Brentford succeeded in 32.8%.
A draw would do no good for United’s dwindling top-four hopes, though that occurred in 28.9% of the data-led scenarios.
Ten Hag’s men are expected to finish sixth in Opta’s end-of-season simulations, with that league-table position predicted most often (48.1%), while Brentford still hold a minor 2.3% chance of an unlikely relegation.
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