The 2023-24 season almost brought an end to Arsenal’s long Premier League title drought, but it wasn’t to be. Will 2024-25 bring more fortune for the Gunners, and can they be the team to end Manchester City’s four-year reign as champions?
Arsenal came close to winning their first Premier League title in 20 years last term only to fall short at the end. Nevertheless, just two points separated them and Manchester City, meaning Mikel Arteta’s men are getting closer to achieving their ultimate goal of a top-flight title success.
“We have to better them. We are closer. When you see all the metrics, we are right there. We’ve been the best team in the league in almost every metric,” said Arteta when questioned by TNT Sports about Arsenal’s credentials as title winners. He wasn’t wrong either; on paper, Arsenal were the most impressive team in the Premier League last season, but it still wasn’t enough for silverware.
Much of whether Arsenal can go that one step further to claim their first league title since 2004 depends on City.
The Gunners’ form in the latter half of last season was some of the best we’ve seen from them, and yet it still wasn’t good enough. They won 16 of their last 18 games but needed to win 17, which just shows what teams are up against in trying to snatch the title from Pep Guardiola’s clutches.
Now, in Arteta’s fifth full season as Arsenal manager, can he finally bring the league title back to north London? We assess their credentials by answering four key questions ahead of 2024-25.
Can Arsenal Do Enough to Win the Premier League?
The obvious question on the lips of everyone, so why not start there?
Under Arteta, Arsenal have gone from back-to-back eighth-place finishes, to just missing out on the Champions League, to being title contenders in the last two Premier League campaigns. Indeed, 2023-24 saw Arsenal record a club record number of wins (28) and goals scored (91) in a single Premier League season, while only their 2003-04 ‘Invincibles’ earned more points. So, now the question is, can Arsenal go that one step further?
Considering the Gunners’ form in 2024 – they have won a league-high 49 points – it may only look like a small step. Manchester City, with their record four consecutive league titles, make it a giant leap, though with eight points taken from City and Liverpool last season, Arsenal seem to have begun tackling their problem of stuttering against the bigger sides.
Overall, Arsenal picked up 22 points in their 10 games against the big six (W6 D4) last season, seven more than any of their rivals in the big-six mini-league. As recently as 2021-22, Arsenal were bottom of that mini-league, picking up just nine points across 10 matches.
Our expected points model simulates the number of goals scored by every side in each match based on the expected goals (xG) value of every shot taken. It then uses the simulated number of goals to determine the match outcome (win/draw/loss). Each match is then simulated 10,000 times; the expected points for each team in every match can then be calculated based on the proportion of simulations they win/draw/lose.
This is of course not an exact science, as expected goals data doesn’t take into account many factors, such as game state and dangerous periods of possession that don’t lead to shots. Nevertheless, it’s still a decent barometer for how teams have performed, and in 2023-24, Arsenal were the best side in the Premier League according to our expected points model.
The Opta supercomputer gives them just a 12.2% chance of winning the title, but the positive spin in that projection is that it’s way above this time last season (4.1%).
Where Have Arsenal Already Improved?
After a blistering start in 2022-23, the Gunners faded away, with relatively heavy home and away defeats to Man City perhaps being the costliest. An injury to William Saliba in the run-in didn’t help matters, but it was clear Arsenal needed to shore up the defence if they were to challenge again.
Arsenal dramatically improved defensively last term, with their 29 goals conceded their fourth best in a single Premier League campaign. It was five goals fewer than champions Man City (34), who had the next-best defence, while their 18 clean sheets was five more than any other team. They conceded shots totalling just 28.4 expected goals (xG) across 2023-24, the lowest xG conceded of any team in Europe’s top five leagues.
Isolate Arsenal’s defensive performances to 2024 alone, and that defensive record goes to another level. Arsenal kept 11 clean sheets in 18 league games in the first half of this year and conceded an exceptionally low 0.65 xG per game – again, the best among all teams in the top five European leagues over that time and 0.15 lower than the next best, Bayer Leverkusen (0.80).
As a disclaimer to Arsenal fans reading this, the graphic below is in no way meant to be a disservice to Aaron Ramsdale, but the signing of David Raya was the most significant change at the back and perhaps a sign of the ruthlessness Arteta needs to take that extra step.
Raya overcame early-season wobbles to lock down the number one goalkeeper spot and pick up the Premier League Golden Glove award. Gabriel Magalhães and Saliba played together for more minutes than any other centre-back pairing in the league and have been the best partnership in the entire division, while Ben White had the best season of his career at right-back.
Do Arsenal Really Need Another Centre-Forward?
Just before their ‘winter break’, Arsenal had a three-game spell that was anything but title challenging form. They lost three matches in a row, against West Ham and Fulham in the Premier League and Liverpool in the FA Cup, in which they scored one goal from 61 shots, leaving certain fans and pundits crying out for a ‘proper’ centre-forward.
They never got one but did score 54 goals in their next 18 Premier League games, a time during which they earned two 6-0 victories and won three by a 5-0 scoreline. Kai Havertz (13 goals) seemed to relish playing through the middle, while he, Bukayo Saka (16) and Leandro Trossard (12) all finished with their best goalscoring returns in a single Premier League campaign. However, only three times in the last 15 seasons has a team won the Premier League without having a player reach the 20-goal mark.
It must be said, this team is such a threat from set-pieces that having an out-and-out goalscorer doesn’t feel quite as important. Arsenal scored more goals from corners (16) than any other team in the Premier League last season and matched the all-time Premier League record set by Oldham in 1992-93 and West Brom in 2016-17. Excluding penalties, they scored 20 goals from set-pieces, which was also a league high.
Availability was an issue for Gabriel Jesus in 2023-24. He started fewer than half of Arsenal’s Premier League games (17) and played just 1,482 minutes in the competition, 43% of possible minutes for the Gunners. This unsurprisingly contributed to a stop-start season for the Brazilian as well, with his longest sequence of league appearances only reaching 10 between the end of November and late January. He never managed more than seven consecutive starts.
Jesus started and scored in Arsenal’s impressive 4-1 friendly win over Bayer Leverkusen on 7 August, before being replaced at half-time. He then played the final 26 minutes of their 2-0 Emirates Cup win over Lyon on Sunday. Whether or not he’ll be trusted by Arteta to lead the line in the first league game against Wolves on Saturday remains to be seen.
Do Arsenal Have Enough Squad Depth?
Arsenal have had a quiet transfer window, with the permanent signing of goalkeeper Raya following last year’s loan and the acquisition of Italian defender Riccardo Calafiori the highlights. Jurriën Timber will also feel like a new signing for Gunners fans after the Dutchman only managed 50 minutes in the Premier League in 2023-24 before suffering an injury that kept him out until May.
Arsenal are seemingly taking Sir Alex Ferguson’s mantra of ‘attack wins you games, defence wins you titles’ to heart, with a strong and versatile squad at the back. As well as the reliable and solid pairing of Gabriel and Saliba, they have one of the most consistent performing right-backs in the country in White, who, let’s not forget, was initially signed as a centre-back. Takehiro Tomiyasu (when fit) seems comfortable on either flank, with Jakub Kiwior also able to deputise at left-back or in the middle. Given it’s unlikely Saliba plays every minute again this term, strength in depth will be crucial for Arsenal to maintain a title challenge.
When it comes to players being comfortable in multiple positions, it’s a similar story at the other end of the pitch. Jesus is probably Arsenal’s most natural striker but may be more effective in the wider positions, while Havertz spent more of last season in midfield but flourished when used up front.
Arsenal have one of the best academies in European football, but Arteta wasn’t keen on giving his youngsters too many minutes last season. Across all 20 Premier League teams in 2023-24, the Gunners handed the fewest minutes to players aged under 21 (13), while only West Ham (108) and Fulham (74) gave fewer minutes to players aged 21 and under than Arteta’s side (372).
Ethan Nwaneri might be one young player who could make a first-team impact this season. The youngest player in Premier League history ranked third in Premier League 2 last season for goals scored (11) and averaging 0.97 goal contributions per 90.
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