It’s not inconceivable to think that the Memphis Grizzlies, who are coming off an injury-ravaged 27-win season, can go from missing the playoffs to contending for a title. We break down the reasons why.
The beauty of sports, and the reason we gravitate to them as human beings, is that every year, something happens that amazes us.
Some team rises from the ashes to soar high. Last year, that team was the Orlando Magic. The year before, it was the Sacramento Kings. The year before that, the Chicago Bulls. Etc, etc.
But whereas those teams all graduated from cellar dwellers to first-round fodder, I posit that this year’s team can take it a step further.
If everything breaks right, the Memphis Grizzlies, who are just four months removed from completing a 27-55 season, can go from missing the playoffs to legitimately competing for an NBA title because of their blend of top-end talent, depth, youth and versatility.
A Star-Studded Trio
To be fair, the Grizzlies weren’t a regular 27-win team. Memphis had a respectable roster (having won 51 games in 2022-23) that was decimated by injuries.
Chief among them was the shoulder injury suffered by All-NBA guard Ja Morant that (along with his 25-game suspension) limited the aerial artist to just nine games last season.
When Morant played in 2023-24, the Grizzlies were 6-3 (a 55-win pace), and when he didn’t, they were an abysmal 21-52. In fact, they’ve gone 82-45 (.646) with him and 52-67 (.437) without him since 2021-22.
Simple math tells us that if Memphis gets more games from its point guard, the team will have a much better record.
As a result of all their injuries, Memphis used 51 different starting lineups in 2023-24. That was the most in the league by far, with the Portland Trail Blazers second with 41.
But while the Morant injury may have been damaging in the short term, it may end up raising their ceiling in the long run.
In his absence, Desmond Bane and Jaren Jackson Jr. were forced to take on responsibilities that they’d never had to handle for any sustained stretch in their NBA careers prior to last season.
The two of them were tasked with creating for themselves and their teammates. Gone were the days of pilfering easy looks off Morant paint touches. Instead, Bane and Jackson were left to fend for themselves. And while the results weren’t always pretty, they both ended the year with career highs in points (Bane 23.7, Jackson 22.5) and assists per game (5.5, 2.3).
Long term, having Bane and Jackson as your two primary focal points isn’t conducive to offensive success (the Grizzlies were 30th in offensive TRACR). But last year provided the tandem with the studio space to experiment and add to their self-creation bags.
Now, with Morant on pace to return at the start of next season, Bane and Jackson can get back to their jobs as secondary and tertiary offensive options, only now they are even more qualified to hold those positions.
Young, Athletic & Versatile Two-Way Forwards
If we learned anything from the 2024 NBA Finals, it’s that you need dynamic role players who can be a positive on both sides of the ball. Wings/forwards who can give you size and rim protection without killing you on offense or spacing and closeout attacking without being a turnstile on defense.
As we learned with teams like the Cleveland Cavaliers and Phoenix Suns (after you establish the top of the food chain), it is better to have these kinds of glue guys rather than redundant third and fourth stars.
In theory, the Grizzlies have three of these gentlemen in GG Jackson II, Vince Williams Jr. and Santi Aldama. I’ve sung the praises of Jackson before, but here’s a quick elevator pitch.
He’s 6-foot-9 with a 7-0 wingspan, has a lightning-quick release and loves to let it fly from downtown (89th percentile in 3-point attempts per 75 possessions), provides weak-side rim protection (54th percentile block rate), moves like you’ve never seen before, and he won’t even be 20 years old at the start of the season!
Jackson has the highest upside of the bunch, but Williams has already proven the most. Williams isn’t as tall (6-4), but he’s just as horizontal (6-11 wingspan).
Regardless of their anatomical differences, Williams checks a similar box – a dribble, pass, shoot (37.8% 3-point shooter) wing/forward who can offer great defense (95th percentile in D-DRIP) and positional rim protection (67th percentile block rate).
Lastly, there’s Aldama. He’s probably the least inspiring option in the trio. However, considering some view him as one of the most underrated players in basketball, that’s still pretty damn encouraging.
Aldama is the size of a center (6-11) with the skills of a guard. His ball skills don’t move me the way Jackson’s or Williams’ do, but he’s still a willing (76th percentile in 3s per 75) and able (34.9%) 3-point shooter who can use his stature to aid in their pursuit to protect the paint (81st percentile block rate).
(Sidebar No. 1: Remember, when it comes to spacing, 3-point volume is more important than 3-point efficiency.)
Between the three of them, the Grizzlies have an abundance of two-way options to properly flank their Big 3 in a postseason setting.
Veterans Provide Lineup Versatility
To complement their stars and youth, the Grizzlies also have a troika of battle-tested veterans (a combined 146 playoff games) that bring different weapons to the battlefield in Marcus Smart, Brandon Clarke and Luke Kennard.
Earlier, I said the Grizzlies had three two-way role players. That was an intentional typo to set up this punchline. Smart is one of the founding fathers of two-way guards. He walked so that Derrick White could run.
Despite his season being shortened by injuries (see chart above), Smart demonstrated he still has some ponies left in the stable. He placed in the 87th percentile in O-DRIP (0.8) and the 93rd percentile in D-DRIP (1.2). Smart also finished 42nd in the entire league (of 572 players) in overall DRIP.
Clarke now has a full 17 months under his belt after the torn Achilles he suffered in March 2023. Hopefully, this means he’s ready to continue his career as a productive big man off the bench in 2024-25.
Clarke’s blend of rebounding (83rd percentile offensive rebounding rate and 81st percentile defensive rebounding rate in 2022-23) and physicality are perfect for covering Jackson’s shortcomings (more on this in a moment). Oh, and guess what? He offers rim protection, too (84th percentile block rate in 2022-23).
(Sidebar No. 2: Studies have shown that rim protection is the most important ingredient to building an elite defense. Part of what makes the Grizzlies so fascinating heading into next season is just how much rim protection they tout at various positions, not just at center.)
Admittedly, Kennard is the least important piece of the puzzle. But in today’s 3-point-driven game, it never hurts to have a dead-eye marksman within your ranks. In the last three years, Kennard is in the 99th percentile in wide-open 3-point percentage (50%, per NBA.com).
The Big Ingredient
As we learned during the 2023 FIBA Basketball World Cup, Jackson struggles banging on the boards and in the post at the center position. It’s a big reason Steven Adams was so valuable to them all these years.
Now, Adams is with the Houston Rockets, and the Grizzlies are left with the ninth overall pick Zach Edey to take his place (and Clarke).
(Sidebar No. 3: It is important to note that Adams and Edey don’t have the exact same playstyle. Adams is a much, much better passer/decision-maker than Edey. Meanwhile, Edey is a vastly superior scorer in the paint. Adams is also more mobile, while Edey is a bigger obstacle to overcome at the rim.)
Edey won back-to-back Naismith College basketball Player of the Year honors by completely dominating the interior on both ends of the floor. At 7-4, 300 pounds, Edey was a physical marvel, the likes of which the college game hasn’t seen in quite some time.
But that was the college game. If his game translates, Edey will be exactly what the doctor ordered for the Grizzlies – a rebounding machine who can hunt interior mismatches and juice the team’s rim protection even further for 20 to 25 minutes a night. But that’s a huge “if.”
Arguably the biggest “if” in the entire draft and likely the most consequential “if” of this upcoming season (at least as it pertains to rookies).
The Bottom Line
You may have noticed this from my tone (the use of terms/phrases like “in theory,” “hopefully,” and “if”), but the Grizzlies don’t exactly have a slam dunk case as contenders.
Yes, they have the perfect blend of star talent, two-way role players, and useful veterans. But there are also a lot of variables that need to break their way in order for this to all work.
Can Morant stay out of his own way? Are the Grizzlies’ forwards as dynamic in practice as they are be in theory? How good is the NBA version of Edey? Will this team ever stay healthy?
That’s a lot of things that need to break their way. There’s a chance that everything goes wrong and that the only playoff series the Grizzlies are playing in April is on 2K. That outcome is surely on the table.
But do you know what the dirty little secret about sports is? To win big, you need talent and luck. The Grizzlies clearly have the talent. Now, they just need a little bit of luck.
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