Will your team be playing in October? We’re revisiting our TRACR-powered simulation model to see what its MLB playoff predictions look like at the All-Star break.
The Baltimore Orioles were the popular preseason choice to repeat in the AL East, but the New York Yankees crashed the party over the first two months of the regular season.
After their eighth straight win on June 6, the Yankees owned MLB’s best record at 45-19 and a season-high 4.5-game lead over the rival Orioles.
But then, baseball happened. As high as they were riding in April and May, the Yanks plummeted just as low in June and July.
With eight wins in 26 games, New York has the worst record in the majors since June 15. Yes, worse than the Chicago White Sox (9-18), Colorado Rockies (10-18) and Miami Marlins (10-17).
Along the way, the Yankees’ division lead has evaporated. They still had a chance to enter the All-Star break with a slim advantage over Baltimore before blowing a two-run lead in the ninth inning of a 6-5 loss on Sunday. Now both teams are bracing for the second half of what has become one of the tightest division races in baseball (along with the AL West).
Who will emerge as the champions of the AL East at the end of the regular season? And can the Seattle Mariners, who are nursing a one-game lead, hold off the surging Houston Astros? The Astros, who have won six division titles in seven years, were 10.0 games behind Seattle on June 18.
Let’s use our TRACR-powered projection model to answer those questions and more. The model incorporates each team’s TRACR, win-loss record and strength of schedule to calculate an expected run differential per 27 outs, which is used to simulate the remaining schedule thousands of times and produce our predictions. TRACR measures how many runs per nine innings better or worse teams are compared to the league-average club in a given season.
Here’s how it sees the division standings playing out the rest of the way. (In the standings, z=best record in league; x=division winner; y=wild-card qualifier)
THE AL EAST MOVERS: Our projection model can’t factor in a big move by the Yankees at the trade deadline. But maybe things are going to look a lot better once Giancarlo Stanton, Anthony Rizzo and others return from injury. Why does our model still believe in New York? It certainly helps when you have Juan Soto and Aaron Judge, who rank second and third, respectively, in raw value+ (RV).
Despite all their struggles of late, the Yankees still rank first in all of baseball in overall TRACR (1.05) – third in offensive TRACR (O-TRACR) and defensive TRACR (D-TRACR), which accounts for run prevention (pitching and defense). As a result, Aaron Boone’s club has the highest probability of winning the AL pennant.
So what about the Orioles? They haven’t been that great either, going 13-16 since June 13. They also had dropped five in a row before Sunday’s dramatic win. Sure, Baltimore has one of the best offenses in MLB (seventh in O-TRACR), but it’s just 19th in D-TRACR despite having AL Cy Young candidate and All-Star Game starter Corbin Burnes.
The Boston Red Sox, sixth in overall TRACR (0.55) and first in bullpen RV- (78.2), have to be considered one of the biggest surprises in the league. They’ve won 10 of 13 to close within 4.5 games of first place, and we project they’ll grab the final AL wild-card spot.
There’s only disappointment for the Tampa Bay Rays and Toronto Blue Jays, though the Jays’ 74.5 projected wins could lower if they decide to sell off some key players.
THE AL CENTRAL MOVERS: The last time we ran our projections around Memorial Day, our model had the Kansas City Royals overtaking the Cleveland Guardians for the division title. But the scenario has changed dramatically over the past month and a half.
The Royals, who have played under .500 baseball (17-21) since June 1, have fallen 7.0 games behind the Guardians and 4.5 back of the Minnesota Twins. They’ve also dropped from second in TRACR (1.49) to eighth (0.54) in the rankings, though that’s ahead of Cleveland (17th) and Minnesota (11th).
Our model points to the Royals tightening things up and moving to within two wins of the Twins and about six behind the Guardians. Kansas City is still projected to win around 86 games – its highest total since its World Series-winning year in 2015 – but one behind the Red Sox for the last playoff spot in the American League.
The Twins have come on strong with a 21-11 record since June 9, but our model still projects them to finish about four games behind the Guardians and earn the fifth seed in the AL playoffs.
The Detroit Tigers are projected to have their most victories since going 86-75 in 2016. And in case you were wondering, we do have the Chicago White Sox finishing with the worst record in baseball with 51.3 victories. That would be their fewest total since going 51-101 in 1948.
THE AL WEST MOVERS: Similar to the Yankees, the Mariners had control of the division about a month ago. As we noted earlier, they had a 10.0-game lead over both the Astros and Texas Rangers on June 18. But after dropping 15 of their last 23, those leads have shrunk to 1.0 and 5.0 games, respectively.
While the model doesn’t see last year’s champion moving much closer, it does project the race to go down to the wire between the Mariners and Astros. In fact, the AL West could be decided on the final day of the season. Seattle has 86.1 projected victories, while Houston has 85.9.
It’s worth noting the Astros have a better chance of reaching the World Series (9.7%) than the Mariners (7.8%) if they get in. A big difference in the race figures performance against AL West opponents, as the Mariners are projected to have MLB’s best division mark at 32-20.
The Oakland Athletics are projected to finish with the fourth-lowest win total in the majors behind the White Sox, Rockies and Marlins.
THE NL EAST MOVERS: There’s no doubt the Atlanta Braves’ run of six straight division titles is in jeopardy. Yes, the Braves struggled upon immediately losing 2023 NL MVP Ronald Acuna Jr. for the season and were only projected to finish with about 86 wins around Memorial Day.
But Atlanta, led by NL Cy Young candidate and RV- leader Chris Sale, has turned things around with an 18-12 record since June 13. Though they remain 8.5 games back, our model sees the Braves playing well in the second half and ending up with the fourth-best record in baseball.
The Philadelphia Phillies are projected to have MLB’s best mark and win their first NL East crown since 2011, but they’re not No. 1 in TRACR (runs per nine innings compared to the major league-average club). They actually rank fourth (0.75) behind the Yankees (1.05), Braves (0.88) and Astros (0.82).
The New York Mets have come a long way since late May when they were projected for only 71.6 wins. They’ve gone a baseball-best 25-11 with NL bests in batting average (.272) and home runs (58), and an MLB-leading 6.0 runs per game since June 3. As a result, they’ve moved all the way up to second in O-TRACR and are projected to grab the sixth playoff spot in the NL.
THE NL CENTRAL MOVERS: The St. Louis Cardinals moved to within 4.5 games of the Milwaukee Brewers heading into the break, but the model points to the Cards fading back behind the Chicago Cubs in the bunched-up mess known as the rest of the NL Central. The Cincinnati Reds are at the bottom of the projected standings, but a closer look reveals it’s pretty much a coin flip second through fifth.
The underlying numbers aren’t too keen on St. Louis, which ranks 21st in D-TRACR, 21st in O-TRACR and 22nd overall at minus-0.35 – worse than the league-average club.
The Brewers, however, aren’t doing it with smoke and mirrors without Burnes and Brandon Woodruff despite the popular narrative to that effect. They rank ninth in D-TRACR, ninth in O-TRACR, fifth overall (0.60) and are projected to finish with sixth-most wins in the majors and the No. 2 seed in the NL.
And by the way, star closer Devin Williams is nearing a return.
THE NL WEST MOVERS: As expected, the Los Angeles Dodgers will win the West for the 11th time in the past 12 seasons, per our projections. The Dodgers have the RV+ leader in Shohei Ohtani but haven’t played great in July, dropping eight of 12. LA has also fallen from seventh in TRACR on Memorial Day to 14th heading into the break and our model has cut its projected win total from 92.3 to 90.0.
That could change once Mookie Betts and Max Muncy, and pitchers Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Tyler Glasnow, Walker Buehler and Clayton Kershaw come back from injury. And they still have a comfortable 7.0-game lead over the San Diego Padres and Arizona Diamondbacks. That’s not likely to change with the Padres projected to win 83.0 games and the D-backs 82.7.
The Padres have lost six of seven, are 18-20 since June 2, and their projected win total has dropped since being up to 86.7 in late May. However, our model expects them to clinch the No. 5 seed in the National League.
The D-backs rank No. 1 in O-TRACR (they’re 24th in D-TRACR), but we still don’t envision them putting together another late run to the World Series in 2024.
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