Reeling from another points deduction, Sean Dyche’s relegation-threatened Toffees go to Stamford Bridge. We look ahead to Monday’s Premier League game with our Chelsea vs Everton prediction and preview.
Chelsea vs Everton Stats: The Quick Hits
- The Opta supercomputer makes Chelsea favourites for Monday’s Premier League fixture, with the Blues assigned a 51.1% chance of beating beleaguered Everton.
- Chelsea have both scored and conceded at least twice in their last seven games in all competitions. No English top-flight team has ever done so in eight straight matches before.
- After going 18 Premier League games without a goal, Dominic Calvert-Lewin has scored on his last two appearances. He last netted in three consecutive league games in August 2021.
Match Preview
Another week, another points deduction in the Premier League. Everton’s latest punishment – a two-point penalty for breaching the league’s financial rules in the assessment period running to the end of 2022-23 – dropped them closer to the dreaded dotted line.
Sean Dyche’s Toffees reacted admirably when their first deduction was handed down before Christmas, and they need a similar response this time around, starting with Monday’s trip to Chelsea.
While Everton have pledged to appeal their latest deduction, they entered Matchday 33 just two points clear of 18th-placed Luton Town and 17th-placed Nottingham Forest. According to the Opta supercomputer, their chances of relegation stand at 6.3%, having briefly dropped as low as 2.2% after their hard-fought win over Burnley on Matchday 32.
That 1-0 victory over Dyche’s former club, which came via a freak goal as Arijanet Muric’s clearance hit Dominic Calvert-Lewin before looping in, ended a 13-game winless run for Everton – the longest in their Premier League history.
While the Toffees still have four fellow relegation candidates to play this term, meetings with Liverpool and Arsenal are still on the agenda, so they cannot afford to rest on their laurels.
According to the Opta Power Rankings, Everton have the third-toughest run-in among the bottom seven, with only Crystal Palace and Luton facing a more testing set of fixtures.
If Everton are to keep their heads above water, they need Calvert-Lewin’s recent upturn to be more than a mere flash in the pan. After going 18 Premier League games without a goal, Calvert-Lewin has now scored in back-to-back matches, having also converted from the penalty spot in a 1-1 draw at Newcastle United. He has not scored in three straight league games since August 2021.
Calvert-Lewin is expected to shake off a minor hamstring issue in time for Monday’s game, while Amadou Onana and Idrissa Gueye should also be available after missing the Burnley win. James Garner took a knock in training this week but is thought likely to feature, while Arnaut Danjuma is closing in on a return after two months out with an ankle injury.
Everton have relied heavily on their backline this term, with their last five league wins all coming to nil. The Toffees have failed to win any of their last 12 matches when conceding a goal (four draws, eight defeats), but that may have to change if they are to take three points at Stamford Bridge.
That’s because, Chelsea have both scored and conceded at least two goals in each of their last seven matches across all competitions. No English top-flight team has ever done so in eight straight games.
Just three days after their dramatic 4-3 triumph over Manchester United, Chelsea’s chaotic run continued with a 2-2 draw at Sheffield United. Goals from Thiago Silva and Noni Madueke twice put the Blues ahead, only for the Blades to hit back on both occasions, Oli McBurnie’s stoppage-time equaliser giving the weary Bramall Lane crowd something to cheer.
That result ratcheted up the pressure on boss Mauricio Pochettino, who subsequently said Chelsea may require five years to get back to the top of the English game.
One thing is certain; Pochettino won’t get the time he craves if Chelsea continue to concede goals at such an alarming rate. They have shipped 52 in the Premier League this term, only conceding more in a 38-game season in the competition three times – in 2015-16 (53), 2019-20 (54) and 1996-97 (55).
Fortunately for Pochettino, he does have plenty of potential matchwinners in attack, none more so than Cole Palmer. He scored a hat-trick on his last home outing against Man Utd, and now has 25 goal involvements in his last 22 Premier League games (16 goals, nine assists). One more assist for 2023-24 would make him the first player to hit double figures for both goals and assists in his first Premier League season with Chelsea.
The Blues’ selection issues show no signs of easing, with Axel Disasi and Enzo Fernández doubtful for Monday’s game, while Raheem Sterling and Robert Sánchez missed Friday’s training session due to illness. Reece James, Wesley Fofana, Roméo Lavia and Lesley Ugochukwu are all long-term absentees.
Chelsea vs Everton Head-to-Head
Everton secured a 2-0 win over Chelsea at Goodison Park in December’s reverse fixture, a result which formed part of a four-match winning streak as the Toffees rallied after receiving their first points deduction.
Abdoulaye Doucouré and Lewis Dobbin were on target in that game, the latter netting his first goal for the club. Everton are now seeking their first league double over Chelsea since 1978-79.
Chelsea, however, are unbeaten in their last 28 Premier League home games against Everton, winning 15 and drawing 13 since a 1-0 loss in November 1994.
That represents the Blues’ longest unbeaten home run against any side in their top-flight history, though Everton did twice come from behind in a 2-2 draw on their last visit to Stamford Bridge in March 2023.
Everton have only endured one longer winless run on the road against a specific club in their top-flight history, failing to beat Leeds United in 35 visits between 1946 and 2001.
Recent Form
You might not know it, given the noise surrounding Pochettino and his young team, but Chelsea are unbeaten in their last seven Premier League games since February’s 4-2 defeat at home to Wolves.
This is their longest unbeaten run in the competition since an eight-match streak under Thomas Tuchel between October and December 2021.
However, The Blues have drawn four of those matches and are also without a clean sheet in their last nine, shipping 21 goals in total during that span.
They will hope the visit of a toothless Everton side brings an end to that latter run. Ahead of Matchday 33, only Burnley and Sheffield United (12 each) had failed to score in more different Premier League matches than Everton this season (11), with only the Blades (30) scoring fewer goals than the Toffees (32).
After scoring two or more goals in three straight games in December, a run which included their home win over Chelsea, Dyche’s men have only scored multiple goals in one of their last 14 Premier League matches (2-2 versus Tottenham).
Global Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system that assigns an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off at Stamford Bridge, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
Chelsea vs Everton Predicted Lineups
Chelsea vs Everton Prediction
The Opta supercomputer is siding with the hosts ahead of Monday’s game. Of 10,000 match simulations conducted by the supercomputer before kick-off, Chelsea won 51.1%.
Everton, meanwhile, were victorious in 21.6% of scenarios, while 27.3% saw the points shared.
Following last week’s draw at Bramall Lane, Chelsea’s chances of securing a top-seven finish dropped to 23.6%, according to the supercomputer’s season predictions, with Pochettino’s men finishing eighth in a league-high 25.3% of simulations.
Everton, meanwhile, entered Matchday 33 with a 6.3% chance of suffering the drop, with 16th (27.9%) their most common position across our season projections.
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