We give an update on the Opta supercomputer’s projections for promotion and relegation in League Two.
26 April
The play-off picture changed again thanks to the final pair of midweek fixtures in League Two.
Ahead of the last day of the season, it is still the case that six teams are fighting over three play-off places.
The runaway freight train that is Doncaster Rovers’ end-of-season form continued as they thrashed Colchester United 4-1 at the JobServe Community Stadium, making it 10 wins in a row for the Yorkshire outfit.
That catapulted Grant McCann’s side into fifth behind MK Dons. Doncaster travel to Gillingham on the last day of the season needing only a point to confirm their name in the play-offs, which they do in 95.3% of the Opta supercomputer’s simulations.
Crewe (93.1%) also need just a point to seal their play-off participation, and will be hopeful of getting that at Colchester.
The other game on Tuesday really kept things interesting, though. In contrast to Doncaster, Barrow have now gone six games without a win, losing five of those as they were beaten 2-1 at home by Bradford City, who themselves still have an outside shot at the play-offs.
Pete Wild’s men still sit in the final play-off spot, but are just a point ahead of Crawley Town, two ahead of Bradford and three ahead of Walsall going into the last game. They host already-promoted Mansfield Town with a precarious 52.3% chance of staying in the top seven.
Crawley are at home to Grimsby Town with an almost coin-toss of a chance of sneaking back in at 50.4%. The Red Devils need to win and hope Doncaster or Crewe Alexandra lose, or Barrow fail to win.
Bradford (8.8%) could yet do it if they win at home to Newport County, Barrow lose and Crawley fail to win. Walsall – who are away to AFC Wimbledon – would need a minor miracle, indicated by their 0.04% likelihood.
As for the relegation fight, Colchester’s loss keeps things open heading into Saturday, though the supercomputer still gives Danny Cowley’s men just a 1.2% chance of going down.
Sutton United (98.8%) below them would need to win away at MK Dons, while hoping that Colchester lose at home to Crewe and that there is a four-goal swing in goal difference. If they are tied on points and goal difference, Sutton have scored three fewer goals than Colchester, so would need to find the net at least three times in Milton Keynes.
22 April
Promotion is done and dusted in League Two. Congratulations to champions Stockport County, as well as Wrexham and Mansfield Town.
MK Dons are the only team guaranteed a play-off place, with the other three spots up for grabs between six teams after a rollercoaster weekend.
Crewe Alexandra were on the end of a 3-0 defeat at home to Wrexham on Saturday and so while they still sit in fifth place, they are just three points ahead of Doncaster Rovers in eighth, who have two games remaining themselves. Crewe travel to Colchester United on the final day, who could still need something to confirm safety, but the Opta supercomputer fancies the Railwaymen will be fine, finishing in the play-off spots in 93.8% of simulations.
Barrow (83.7%) should join them but have also been making a bit of a mess of things of late, losing four and drawing one of their last five games. They were all set to confirm their play-off place when leading 2-1 at Doncaster heading into the 88th minute on Saturday, but they somehow managed to lose 4-2. Pete Wild’s men have two chances to rectify things though, at home to Bradford City on Tuesday followed by another home clash with Mansfield on the final day.
Crawley Town are also enduring a tough run, with their 2-2 draw at Sutton United on Saturday making it four without victory for Scott Lindsey’s side. The Red Devils currently sit in the final play-off spot with one game remaining – at home to Grimsby Town – but they will lose that advantage before Saturday if Doncaster get anything from their game in hand away at Colchester on Tuesday. As a result, Crawley’s play-off chances have reduced to 56.0%.
Doncaster look formidable and are on a nine-game winning streak. Grant McCann’s men really seem to have hit form at the right time and now have a 59.6% chance of making the play-offs, where they would arguably be favourites on current form.
Walsall (1.6%) still have a slight chance, though would need to win away at AFC Wimbledon on the last day and hope several other results go their way, while Bradford have a slightly better chance (5.4%) and could really put themselves in the mix with a win at Barrow on Tuesday before they host Newport County on the final day.
Forest Green Rovers are already down, and it seems almost certain Sutton will join them. They nearly grabbed a huge win over Crawley only to be denied by a stoppage-time equaliser on Saturday, and with one game remaining they sit three points and seven goals behind Colchester (0.2% chance of relegation), who also have an extra game to play.
Sutton’s best hope is for Danny Cowley’s side to be on the end of a hammering against Doncaster to help overturn some of the goal difference, while also hoping Colchester lose to Crewe on the final day. Finally, Sutton would have to win away at fourth-place MK Dons. If all those things happening seems unlikely, that’s because it is. Their current relegation chances stand at 99.8%.
12 April
Stockport County need just one more point to secure promotion, so it won’t be much of a surprise that the Opta supercomputer sees them go up in 100% of its simulations. Away wins at relegation-threatened Sutton United and Colchester United in the last week have put Dave Challinor’s men on the brink of a place in League One. They also win the title in 93.0% of sims.
Wrexham are likely to join them after they followed up a 2-1 win at Colchester with a 4-1 hammering of Crawley Town. The Welsh side’s promotion likelihood is now up at 95.7%.
Mansfield Town had a mixed week, getting beaten 4-1 at home by Crawley last Saturday before recording a 1-0 victory over bottom-place Forest Green Rovers. Nigel Clough’s men are back in the top three after a few days in fourth during the week, and still have a healthy 87.0% chance of going up.
MK Dons might consider their probability of 16.7% somewhat harsh given they won 2-0 at Forest Green on Saturday and sit just two points behind Mansfield, but the Stags do have a game in hand.
The play-off picture has had its ups and downs in recent weeks but seems to be starting to take shape. As well as MK Dons (83.3%), Crewe Alexandra (97.9%) and Barrow (90.2%) seem well ensconced in the top seven, while despite their chastening loss at Wrexham on Tuesday, Crawley’s recent form has seen them rise to a 74.8% chance of completing the play-off picture.
Walsall (20.1%) remain the likeliest challengers to Scott Lindsey’s side, ahead of AFC Wimbledon (7.3%) – despite being behind them in the table – due to having a game in hand. In-form Doncaster Rovers (8.2%) can’t be counted out though as Grant McCann’s men make a late surge for the play-offs after seven wins in a row.
As for relegation, things don’t look great for Forest Green after defeats to MK Dons and Mansfield in the last week. The Gloucestershire side go down to the National League in 96.9% of simulations, as the battle to avoid joining them hots up.
Colchester currently sit in 23rd, a point behind Sutton United but with two games in hand. Both teams lost at home to leaders Stockport during the week, while Danny Cowley’s Colchester were also beaten on home soil by Wrexham. Due to those games in hand, Sutton are more likely to go down at 75.8%, with Colchester on 24.5%. Grimsby Town are more or less safe, only slipping into the bottom two in 2.8% of scenarios.
3 April
We have new favourites for the League Two title. Following fixtures over the Easter weekend, Stockport County lead the way by four points after wins over Forest Green Rovers and AFC Wimbledon. Dave Challinor’s side now have a whopping 99.4% chance of promotion, and a 70.6% probability of finishing in first place, according to the Opta supercomputer.
Knocked off top spot were Mansfield Town, who did not have a happy Easter after playing just once, a 2-0 defeat at fellow promotion hopefuls Wrexham. It hasn’t damaged the promotion chances of Nigel Clough’s men too much, dropping from 96.0% to 93.5%, but their title probability has more than halved from 50.0% to 24.4%.
Wrexham earned that important win over Mansfield on Friday, but suffered a 1-0 defeat at Doncaster Rovers on Tuesday. The supercomputer is still confident of their top-three credentials, seeing the Welsh side go up in 82.1% of simulations, but they sit just two points above MK Dons, albeit having played a game fewer.
MK Dons walloped Walsall 5-0 at home on Friday and would have had Wrexham sweating even more if they’d been able to hold on at Notts County on Monday, ultimately settling for a 3-3 draw. Their promotion chances have risen very slightly to 16.3% but the play-offs remain the likelier destination (83.5%).
That’s also true for Barrow (90.5%), who followed up a 3-1 win over Grimsby Town with a 2-1 loss at Morecambe, as well as out-of-form Crewe Alexandra (89.6%), winners just once in their last seven games (D2 L4). They drew 0-0 at Gillingham on Friday but suffered an embarrassing 3-0 home defeat to bottom-place Forest Green on Monday.
Crawley Town were in danger of undoing their recent good work in the charge for the final play-off spot when they lost 2-0 at home to Doncaster on Friday. However, an impressive 4-0 victory at Newport County on Monday catapulted them back into the top seven and increased their probability of making the play-offs to 61.7%.
Morecambe’s back-to-back wins over Accrington Stanley and Barrow see them one place outside the play-offs and with a 14.7% chance of sneaking in, though Walsall in 11th are still considered likeliest of the outsiders to do so at 22.4%, presumably due to their games in hand on the chasing pack. They did recover from a hammering in Milton Keynes with a late 2-1 home win over Salford City on Monday.
The relegation battle continues to throw up surprise results. Sutton United are giving it their very best go, beating Salford and Swindon Town to move out of the bottom two for the first time since August. However, their likelihood of going down is still up at 74.0% due to Colchester United’s three games in hand.
Danny Cowley’s side are also picking up useful points, having only lost two of their last 13 games, though that run also includes nine draws. They beat Newport 2-1 on Friday before earning a respectable point in a 1-1 draw at Tranmere Rovers on Monday. Despite now being in the bottom two, Colchester are given just a 20.6% chance of being relegated.
Grimsby still can’t quite escape the dogfight, losing 3-1 at Barrow before dropping two points late on against Bradford City as they conceded a 93rd-minute penalty in a 1-1 draw at Blundell Park. They sit two points above Colchester having played a game more, and a point ahead of Sutton having played two games fewer, with their relegation chances now at 13.2%.
Forest Green looked doomed when they lost 3-0 at home to leaders Stockport last Friday, but they followed that up with an astonishing win by the same score at Crewe. They are now three points from safety with a game in hand on Sutton, though have played two games more than Colchester. Steve Cotterill’s men remain likely to drop into the National League, with their relegation chances still up at 92.0%.
27 March
Ahead of a massive game in the race for promotion on Good Friday when Wrexham host Mansfield Town, we thought we’d look at the latest Opta supercomputer predictions in League Two.
Mansfield still lead the way but dropped two unexpected points last Saturday against relegation-threatened Colchester United. Lewis Brunt equalised after Harry Anderson had given Colchester an early advantage at the One Call Stadium, but Nigel Clough’s side were unable to find a winner.
That 1-1 draw only slightly hampered Mansfield’s promotion hopes, which have dipped from 97.9% to 96.0%, but it has hurt their title hopes more. Having been given a 70.1% chance of a first-place finish last week, they now have just a 50/50 chance, with them ending the season top in 50.0% of the supercomputer’s simulations.
The big winners of last weekend were Stockport County, who thrashed MK Dons 5-0 at Edgeley Park. The visitors actually had more shots than Stockport (13-10), but Dave Challinor’s side were ruthless in their finishing. Their already strong 88.4% likelihood of going up to League One has now risen to 94.6%, with a 40.1% chance of pipping Mansfield to the title.
Wrexham got back to winning ways after back-to-back home defeats, beating Grimsby Town 3-1 at Blundell Park. A brace from Andy Cannon and Paul Mullin’s 16th league goal of the season secured victory, and gave Phil Parkinson’s men a big boost in their promotion chances, especially after MK Dons’ defeat at Stockport. Wrexham saw their top-three likelihood rocket from 53.9% to 74.3%, with a 9.0% shot of finishing top.
MK Dons have therefore taken quite a hit in their promotion hopes, with the supercomputer reducing their chances from 31.0% to just 14.2%, while Crewe Alexandra also saw a steep drop from 19.7% to 10.5% after their 1-1 draw at home to AFC Wimbledon, meaning they’ve won just one of their last five games (D1 L3).
Barrow took advantage with a 1-0 win against Newport County, improving their promotion chances to 10.1% (up from 8.7%), with MK Dons (84.0%), Crewe (85.7%) and Barrow (83.1%) now even more likely to make up three-quarters of this season’s League Two play-offs.
Crawley Town further staked their claim to join them with a 3-1 win at Tranmere Rovers; Scott Lindsey’s men boosting their play-off chances in the process from 28.2% to 45.9%, with 10th-place Walsall (23.6%) still considered the Red Devils’ biggest threat to that final spot in the top seven.
As for the fight against relegation, Sutton United claimed a huge 3-1 win over Accrington Stanley to go within a point of safety. Unfortunately for Steve Morison’s side, Colchester above them still have three games in hand, and themselves earned a very credible point at leaders Mansfield last time out. Sutton did manage to reduce their relegation chances from 92.7% to 87.9%, but Colchester’s point actually did them more favours as their relegation probability dropped from 28.7% to 19.1%.
That was largely down to Forest Green Rovers losing 2-0 at Doncaster Rovers, sending them to the bottom of the table and increasing their chances of relegation from 76.2% to 89.6%.
22 March
Mansfield Town took a big stride towards promotion last weekend. Nigel Clough’s side had lost three of their previous six games, but thrashed Bradford City 5-1 at the University of Bradford Stadium to boost their top-three chances.
They were aided by the team that had beaten them the previous midweek, Tranmere Rovers, who also added Mansfield’s promotion rivals Wrexham to their list of vanquished foes. Nigel Adkins’ men beat the Welsh side 1-0 at the Racecourse Ground thanks to a Luke Norris goal.
Crawley Town’s late equaliser in a 1-1 draw against Stockport County on Monday night benefitted the Stags further still, and Mansfield are now given a mighty 97.9% chance of securing a place in the top three come the season’s end by the Opta supercomputer, and a 70.1% possibility of winning the title.
Stockport sit four points behind Mansfield with a game in hand, but could do with getting back on track soon. Dave Challinor’s side have won just one of their last seven games (D4 L2), though still have an 88.4% chance of automatic promotion.
Wrexham haven’t fared much better recently, winning only two of their last seven (D3 L2), and are only in the final automatic promotion spot ahead of MK Dons on goal difference. They have a 53.9% chance of finishing in the top three, as things stand, while MK Dons sit at 31.0% after an important 3-1 win over Crewe Alexandra last weekend.
That defeat reduced Crewe’s chances of finding their way into the top three to 19.7%, while Barrow (8.7%) are the only remaining team to have a greater than 1.0% likelihood, though had to settle for a disappointing 0-0 draw with Harrogate last time out. MK Dons (68.1%), Crewe (77.1%) and Barrow (80.0%) are all considered far likelier than not to make the play-offs.
The favourites to join them as things stand are Crawley (28.2%). Scott Lindsey’s men were favourites for relegation with many at the start of the season but have picked up momentum in recent weeks to make a late play-off charge. They have a tough run coming up that includes trips to Newport County, Mansfield and Wrexham, but with one or two games in hand over the teams above them and five wins in their last seven games (D1 L1), the Red Devils could participate in the play-offs for the first time since debuting in the Football League in 2011.
According to the supercomputer, their nearest challengers in the race for the top seven will be Walsall (25.8%), Newport (22.1%) and AFC Wimbledon (20.3%).
As for the relegation scrap, Sutton United gave themselves a fighting chance with a 1-0 win at fellow strugglers Forest Green Rovers on Saturday. That dragged the bottom side to just three points from safety, though their goal difference is nine worse than 22nd-place Colchester United, who also have three games in hand. Sutton still have a 92.7% chance of going down, but that’s an improvement of 5.1% from last week. Forest Green’s chance of relegation has gone from 63.6% to 76.2%.
Danny Cowley’s Colchester got a point against Walsall to reduce their likelihood of dropping out of the Football League from 32.7% to 28.7%, while Grimsby Town’s draw at Gillingham takes them to just a 2.3% of being sucked into the bottom two.
15 March
It was a fantastic midweek for Crewe Alexandra, with Lee Bell’s side the only one of the current top six in League Two to win across the matchday.
Their 1-0 win over struggling Sutton United pulled them within three points of the automatic promotion spots ahead of a massive clash with MK Dons this weekend. The two sides are tied on 64 points, with Milton Keynes having played a game more than Crewe, and the winner of Saturday’s match could take a step closer to automatic promotion.
Based on the current Opta supercomputer projections, Crewe finished inside the top three of League Two in a quarter of the 10,000 season simulations, ahead of MK Dons (17.8%). If the game produces a winner this weekend, it’s likely to severely damage the losing side’s chances of automatic promotion.
Mansfield currently lead League Two, but a midweek 2-1 defeat to Tranmere was their third loss in six league matches. Luckily for them, the majority of promotion-chasing sides in the competition are struggling for form.
Only one of the current top eight sides – AFC Wimbledon – have managed to win both of their last two matches. Stockport County, who are second heading into this weekend, have won just six points from their last six league games. They will be buoyed by coming from 2-0 down to win a point at Salford on Thursday night, however. They will have to wait until every other automatic promotion hopeful has played before their Monday night trip to Crawley Town.
Automatic promotion seems highly likely for both Mansfield (90.7%) and Stockport (87.4%) based on the Opta supercomputer’s current season simulations, while Wrexham follow having finished inside the top three in 69.2% of those 10,000 season sims.
Crawley have been in excellent form of late, with only Crewe (2.00) averaging more points per game in 2024 than them (1.83). The Red Devils have won five of their last six League Two matches and are given a 24.8% chance of finishing inside the play-off places at the end of the season. The teams most likely to finish between fourth and seventh at the end of the season are currently Barrow (79.0%), MK Dons (78.3%), Crewe (72.0%), AFC Wimbledon (33.7%) and Wrexham (30.6%).
Two sides will drop down to the National League, with Sutton’s hopes of avoiding relegation currently looking very bleak. They were relegated in 97.8% of the current projections, followed by Forest Green Rovers (63.6%) and Colchester United (32.7%). Colchester are currently one point behind the vegan-powered side from Gloucestershire but have two games in hand.
How Does the Opta Supercomputer Model Work?
• Opta’s League Prediction model estimates the likelihood of teams finishing in each position in the competition. We can therefore see how successful a team’s season is likely to be, whether it’s their relegation or title chances.
• The model estimates the probability of each match outcome (win, draw or loss) by using betting market odds and Opta Power Rankings. The odds and rankings are based on historical and recent team performances.
• The model considers the strength of opponents by using these match outcome probabilities and simulates the remaining fixtures in the competition thousands of times. By analysing the outcome of each of these simulations, the model can see how often teams finished in each league position to create our final predictions.
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