In control after the first leg, Luis Enrique’s men will have to replicate their performance in Spain to progress to the UEFA Champions League last eight. We look ahead to the clash with our Real Sociedad vs PSG prediction and preview.
Real Sociedad vs PSG Stats: The Quick Hits
- Real Sociedad are the narrow favourites on Tuesday, defeating Paris Saint-Germain in 38.2% of pre-match simulations by the Opta supercomputer.
- Kylian Mbappé has been directly involved in 34 goals in 31 away appearances in the UEFA Champions League, the most in such games since the start of 2016-17.
- La Real have only been behind for 37 minutes in the Champions League this season and haven’t trailed in any of their home games so far.
Match Preview
World football is once again talking about Kylian Mbappé’s future, but Paris Saint-Germain must usher their superstar forward’s focus towards the UEFA Champions League last-16 clash with Real Sociedad on Tuesday, when Luis Enrique’s men head to Real Arena with a 2-0 aggregate lead.
Mbappé has reportedly once again signalled his intentions to leave the French capital at the end of this season, as was seemingly the case in the summer of 2021 and the following campaign when a move to Real Madrid appeared rubber-stamped. Those fresh reports came before the FIFA World Cup-winning attacker scored, along with a goal for Bradley Barcola, in a two-goal triumph over La Real in the first leg at Parc des Princes on 14 February.
Long-term suitors Madrid or Premier League contenders Liverpool are understood to be the frontrunners for the France goalscorer’s signature but PSG head coach Luis Enrique will be desperate to put that speculation to one side once more, considering Mbappé has been directly involved in 34 goals in 31 away appearances in the Champions League (23 goals, 11 assists) – the most of any player away from home in the competition since the start of 2016-17.
It was one-way traffic in Paris on Valentine’s Day and a similar performance would send the Ligue 1 champions into the quarter-final draw for the first time in three seasons. PSG did not face a single shot on target in the first leg, just the second time since Opta began collecting data in 2003-04 that has happened in a Champions League knockout-stage game for the French side.
However, the other occurrence without the PSG goal being tested in the knockout rounds of this competition was against Real Madrid in February 2022, before their harrowing second-leg collapse against Los Blancos – a feat Luis Enrique will be keen to avoid in his attempts to fix his side’s last-16 woes.
Indeed, this will be the 10th time PSG have gone into the second leg of a Champions League knockout stage game ahead on aggregate, but from the previous nine occasions when doing so, the French side have only managed to progress from five of those ties.
As for the hosts’ team news, Luis Enrique removed Mbappé at half-time in a goalless draw with Monaco on Friday but insisted it was a tactical decision, while Presnel Kimpembe, Sergio Rico, Milan Skriniar and Layvin Kurzawa remain out. Marquinhos is also a doubt due to an ongoing calf issue.
In terms of Tuesday’s hosts, Imanol Alguacil’s men won possession in the final third on 19 occasions in the first leg – the most by a team away at PSG in UEFA’s premier club competition on record (since 2007-08) but did little to trouble Gianluigi Donnarumma’s often unconvincing defensive charges.
Remarkably, La Real have still only been behind for 37 minutes in the Champions League this season – falling behind to Mbappé’s 58th-minute opener in the first leg – and haven’t trailed in any of their home games so far. Overall, only Real Madrid (26 minutes) and Arsenal (29 minutes) have been behind for fewer minutes than Alguacil’s side this term.
However, the Spanish side know they have it all to do come Tuesday’s kick-off. A 3-2 defeat away to Sevilla on Saturday will not have improved the mood in the camp either, with goals from André Silva and Brais Méndez not enough to power the visitors to victory in Seville.
La Real have just one win in their last nine matches across all competitions, though their struggles have somewhat been compounded by injury issues. Álvaro Odriozola, Martín Merquelanz, Aihen Muñoz and Carlos Fernández remain out, while Aritz Elustondo is a doubt due to a groin problem.
Real Sociedad vs PSG Head-to-Head
The Ligue 1 champions may hold the first-leg advantage, but their recent record in these stages of the competition and struggles against Spanish opposition suggest a more challenging encounter than some would expect.
PSG have only won two of their 12 away games against Spanish sides in the Champions League (D3 L7), suffering defeats in six of the last eight in this run (W1 D1). They’ve not kept a clean sheet in any of these 12 matches overall, conceding an average of 2.3 goals per game (28 in total).
There are positive omens for La Real, too, given the last time a Spanish team lost the first leg of a Champions League knockout stage tie by 2+ goals but still managed to progress was in 2016-17, when Barcelona eliminated PSG 6-5 on aggregate in one of the most remarkable Champions League turnarounds.
Visiting head coach Luis Enrique has also lost three of his previous five away games against La Real across all competitions (W1 D1), with all three of those defeats coming in La Liga between 2013 and 2016 (twice with Barcelona and once with Celta Vigo).
Recent Form
Luis Enrique has never lost a home match in the knockout stages of the Champions League (W7 D1), sitting level with Fabio Capello for the most such games without ever losing (eight), but his attention must now turn to a tough task away from the French capital.
The first-leg defeat at Parc des Princes ended La Real’s seven-game unbeaten run in European competition, since losing to Roma in March 2023, as Alguacil’s men conceded as many goals in Paris as they did in the entire group stages this term (also two in six games).
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system that assigns an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off on Tuesday night, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
Real Sociedad vs Paris Saint-Germain Prediction
Real Sociedad have to overturn a two-goal deficit to have any chance of progression. They were victorious in 38.2% of the Opta supercomputer UCL predictions, with the draw – which would send PSG through – occurring in 26.3% of scenarios. PSG won 35.5% of pre-match simulations.
Overall, Luis Enrique’s men have an 88.6% chance of making the quarter-finals in Opta’s Champions League simulations, reaching the final in 20.8%, while the La Liga side’s first-leg defeat has their chances of last-eight progression at 11.4%.
As it stands, PSG (9.1%) are the fourth favourites to win the Champions League this season with the Opta supercomputer behind Manchester City (33.1%), Internazionale (16.8%) and Real Madrid (16.6%) but ahead of Bayern Munich, Arsenal and Barcelona.
Paris Saint-Germain vs Real Sociedad UCL Squads
Paris Saint-Germain: Keylor Navas, Alexandre Letellier, Arnau Tenas, Gianluigi Donnarumma, Achraf Hakimi, Presnel Kimpembe, Marquinhos, Lucas Hernández, Nuno Mendes, Nordi Mukiele, Lucas Beraldo, Milan Skriniar, Manuel Ugarte, Fabián Ruiz, Danilo, Vitinha, Lee Kang-in, Warren Zaïre-Emery, Ethan Mbappé, Senny Mayulu, Kylian Mbappé, Gonçalo Ramos, Ousmane Dembélé, Marco Asensio, Randal Kolo Muani, Bradley Barcola.
Head coach: Luis Enrique
Real Sociedad: Alex Remiro, Unai Marrero, Aitor Fraga, Álvaro Odriozola Aritz Elustondo, Urko González, Kieran Tierney, Hamari Traoré, Jon Pacheco, Robin Le Normand, Javi Galán, Eneko Astigarraga, Jon Martin, Jon Aramburu, Martin Zubimendi, Igor Zubeldia, Mikel Merino, Mikel Oyarzabal, Arsen Zakharyan, Jon Ander Olasagasti, Beñat Turrientes, Brais Méndez, Jon Magunacelay, Pablo Marin, Jon Gorrotxategi, Alex Lebarbier, Alberto Dadie, Ander Barrenetxea, Carlos Fernández, Sheraldo Becker, Takefusa Kubo, Umar Sadiq, André Silva.
Head coach: Imanol Alguacil
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