The Premier League title race is capturing the imagination of neutrals, but the battle for Champions League qualification has been entertaining, too.
We have entered the home straight of the 2023-24 Premier League season, the period that’ll ultimately decide everything (in English top-flight terms, at least).
For much of the campaign, we at Opta Analyst have paid particular attention to the title race – which seems to get more gripping by the week – and the relegation battle.
But results in March and April have caused us to turn our attention to the other tussle that should capture the imagination over the final weeks of the season: the race for Champions League football between Tottenham, Aston Villa, Manchester United and Newcastle.
The waters are muddied somewhat by the fact we don’t quite know for certain exactly how many clubs will qualify for the Champions League from the Premier League. The top four are obviously guaranteed a slot each, but there is still a tiny chance that fifth place may also end up providing an automatic route into the competition, which will be revamped with a new 36-team format next term.
Essentially, four extra Champions League spots are up for grabs across Europe. Two will be given to the associations with the best collective performance in European competition in 2023-24, with this determined by the UEFA coefficients points system that rewards each country for their clubs progressing through the Champions League, Europa League, and Europa Conference League.
However, based on Opta supercomputer predictions for the remainder of those competitions this season, the most recent projections have England with just a 1.1% chance of being one of the two top-performing nations across UEFA competitions in 2023-24.
But who’s most likely to join Manchester City, Arsenal and Liverpool in the Champions League next season? Check back here over the next few weeks to see how the battle for Champions League qualification evolves.
22 April
With Aston Villa the only one of the top-four chasing clubs in action, this weekend was a huge opportunity for them to strengthen their grip on a Champions League place.
Following a desperately disappointing week in Europe for the Premier League’s contingent, it’s now incredibly unlikely that the team that finishes in fifth place will qualify for the Champions League. As a result, the race for the top four is far more significant than the race for the top five.
Villa are in the driving seat, having moved six points clear of fifth-placed Tottenham with a 3-1 comeback win at Bournemouth on Saturday. The Opta supercomputer rates their chances of finishing in the top four at 80.9%, with Spurs their only realistic challengers at 19.0%.
Newcastle and Manchester United are as good as out of the race for the top four, with both teams having a chance of less than 0.01% of scraping in.
If Villa go on to win the Europa Conference League and all three German teams that are still in Europe capitulate at the next stage, then the Premier League could still get a fifth Champions League spot.
In that eventuality, Spurs remain big favourites to join Villa in qualifying, with their stronghold on the top five unlikely to be weakened. They have a 94.8% chance of finishing in the top five positions, with Villa (99.9%) as good as certain. Newcastle (3.1%) and United (1.7%) are just about clinging on.
15 April
If Fifth Is a Champions League Spot
It was a very, very good weekend for Aston Villa. They came into the weekend trailing Tottenham in the table as well as in the supercomputer’s predictions for the rest of the season, but a hugely impressive 2-0 win at Arsenal on Sunday has put them very much in the driving seat. Three points clear of Spurs and boasting the easier run-in, Villa are now the favorites in the race for Champions League qualification.
With it currently more likely than not that fifth place will qualify for the Champions League, Villa are looking good to be in the competition for the first time next season. They have a stronger grip on a top-five place than at any other point this season; at the time of writing, the supercomputer gives Unai Emery’s side a 99.1% chance of finishing in the top five.
That’s because they got by far their most difficult remaining game out of the way this weekend and came away from the Emirates will all three points, thanks to goals from Leon Bailey and Ollie Watkins. They now have a 13-point cushion over sixth-placed Newcastle.
It was a weekend to forget for Tottenham, as they went to Newcastle – where they lost 6-1 last April – and almost produced as embarrassing a result. This time, it was only 4-0 to the home side, who kept their faint hopes of Champions League qualification alive with the win.
Spurs have an incredibly difficult run-in, facing all of the Premier League’s title-chasing top three, as well as Chelsea at Stamford Bridge. They do, however, have the safety net of a 10-point gap to Newcastle in sixth, and also face Burnley and Sheffield United in the final week of the season.
Spurs would have to lose four of their final six games and Newcastle would have to win all six of theirs for Eddie Howe’s team to overhaul the deficit and make it into the top five. It’s not completely impossible, but it’s pretty unlikely. That is reflected in the supercomputer giving Spurs a 95.0% chance of finishing in the top five, and just 3.9% to Newcastle.
Manchester United have played their way – almost – out of contention for Champions League qualification. After Saturday’s 2-2 draw at Bournemouth – their fourth successive game without a win – Erik ten Hag’s side make it into the top five in just 1.7% of the supercomputer’s simulations.
It’s not decided, but the race for the top five is as good as sewn up with six games to go.
If Fifth Isn’t a Champions League Spot
The race for the top four is far closer, yet after this weekend’s results, Villa are huge favourites to win it.
After their unexpected win at Arsenal, Emery’s side now have a 72.4% chance of finishing in the Premier League’s top four this season – a huge improvement compared to their numbers heading into the weekend.
Spurs had been favourites to beat Villa to fourth before their mauling at Newcastle, but their chances are now rated at just over one in four – at 27.3%.
Villa only face one of the current top eight (Liverpool) in their final five games, and even though Spurs have a game in hand, Villa’s fixtures mean they would have to mess things up if they are to give up their grip on fourth spot.
Facing winnable games against Bournemouth (H), Chelsea (H), Brighton (A) and Crystal Palace (A), Villa have more than enough opportunities to pick up the points they need to guarantee fourth.
As well as beating Spurs, Newcastle and United to the top four, Villa could also hurt their rivals’ chances of qualifying for the Champions League if they crash out of Europe. If the Premier League’s teams lose out on the chance to earn a fifth spot in Europe’s premier competition, Newcastle and United will almost certainly have to settle for a place in the Europa League or Conference League. Their top-four chances are rated at 0.3% and less than 0.01%, respectively.
Of course, nobody expected Villa to win at Arsenal this weekend, and they have been rather inconsistent of late, so we shouldn’t assume anything in the season’s final few weeks.
That said, it would take a bit of a catastrophe on their part if they were to finish outside the top four from the position they now find themselves in.
18 March
If Fifth Is a Champions League Spot
It was a pretty good weekend all round for Manchester United. Their incredible 4-3 extra-time FA Cup quarter-final win over Liverpool was a thrill ride and the kind of result that can really help build momentum, which is exactly what you want heading into the final two months of the season when playing catch-up.
What made the weekend even better for Erik ten Hag’s men was the fact neither Spurs nor Villa could earn wins in the Premier League.
Tottenham suffered a surprise 3-0 defeat away to Fulham on Saturday, with that the first time in 39 Premier League matches that Spurs have failed to score.
Villa, meanwhile, could only take a 1-1 draw away from the London Stadium on Sunday – though they were arguably lucky to get a point, with West Ham having two goals disallowed after VAR checks.
As such, both teams have seen slight decreases to their chances of finishing in the top five, but it’s hardly panic stations yet given they’re both still close to 90%.
Villa’s probability of finishing in the top five is 89.8%, while Spurs’ is only slightly lower at 88.7%. Both are down from a week ago, though the differences are marginal.
Spurs have seen a decrease of 2.9 percentage points; Villa’s is down by 0.2.
Therefore, while United’s situation has obviously improved even without playing a Premier League match, an increase in their top-five chances of 2.9% isn’t anything to get too excited about yet, particularly given Spurs are still six points clear of them.
Nevertheless, things could change rapidly; it’ll only take one more Spurs defeat for the supercomputer to start getting really giddy.
If Fifth Isn’t a Champions League Spot
This is looking even less likely than last week because of results in Europe since, but the situation isn’t confirmed so we should still consider all eventualities.
Spurs’ defeat had a pretty sizeable impact on their top-four probability, as the graph below shows, and that’s also given Villa a major boost.
Ange Postecoglou’s side were deemed favourites for fourth by a reasonable margin last week, but their probability has dipped from 55.1% to 48.4%; Villa have gone from 42.2% to 47.5%.
United’s hopes for fourth have also improved somewhat (+1.2 percentage points), though at 3.5% they are still huge outsiders.
It’s going to take a big few weeks for the Red Devils to get into genuine contention for fourth, though that shouldn’t be necessary given how the English clubs are doing in Europe.
United need that to continue.
11 March
If Fifth Is a Champions League Spot
It’s worth pointing out at this point that Spurs (27) have actually played a game fewer than United and Villa (28). There’s two ways of looking at that: they have a game in hand and therefore more chances to win three points, or they’ve got more opportunities to drop points.
The optimists will of course start counting an extra three points already because, right now, if they were to win their game in hand, then Spurs would move up to fourth place and sit a point ahead of Villa.
While that may not be how things always turn out in football, the Opta supercomputer does now consider Spurs as the team most likely to finish in the top five – well, fourth or fifth. It’s probably fair to rule out third and beyond.
Spurs’ brilliant 4-0 win away to Villa on Sunday has clearly played a role in that, with the two teams swapping places in the supercomputer’s projections following that result.
It considers Ange Postecoglou’s side to now have a 91.6% chance of finishing fifth or fourth; Villa might only be marginally behind them (90.0%), but Tottenham do now have the edge in this particular scenario, with Sunday’s victory not only a psychological boost but a real statement considering how emphatic it was.
Manchester United still harbour hope of returning to the Champions League again next season, and that will surely be their aim if Erik ten Hag thinks he can keep his job for 2024-25 – but the outlook isn’t great.
For the time being, the points gap between them and Spurs in fifth is six. That’s not quite unassailable, but if Tottenham were to win their game in hand, then the deficit to fifth (Villa) would be eight points; considering how erratic United have been this season, it’s difficult to see why they’d be confident of overturning such a lead.
Ten Hag’s side have already lost 11 times in the league this term, putting them just one away from equalling their worst record in a single Premier League season (12 in 2019-20 and 2013-14). As such, the Opta supercomputer rates their chances of a top-five finish at just 12.7%.
In fairness, it’s been worse than that for much of the campaign and they might fancy their chances when they get a couple of key players back from injury. But either way, it’ll take an impressive turnaround for United to usurp either Spurs or Villa.
If Fifth Isn’t a Champions League Spot
As stated before, this scenario is less likely because English clubs are still projected to do well in each of the three UEFA competitions. However, it isn’t beyond the realm of possibility some of Manchester City, Arsenal, Liverpool, Villa and West Ham suffer surprise eliminations in their respective competitions.
The only thing that’s guaranteed is fourth place in the Premier League will qualify for the Champions League, so removing all doubt from the situation should be the priority.
Manchester United fans needn’t expend much energy thinking about that as a possibility for them, though. With eight points to make up already on Villa alone, top four looks pretty much out of reach.
The Opta supercomputer’s projections reflect this as well, giving them just a 2.3% likelihood of finishing ahead of both Spurs and Villa; that’s 230 out of 10,000 season simulations by the model, or in other words, incredibly improbable.
But that won’t be much of a surprise to anyone. The battle here is between Spurs and Villa, and Sunday’s 4-0 win for Postecoglou’s men provided a seismic shift in their respective chances of getting fourth.
Before the weekend, Villa were in the driver’s seat and given a 65.3% probability of finishing in the top four, whereas Spurs were at 32.1%; now, though, Spurs end the campaign fourth in 55.1% of the 10,000 season simulations and Villa are down to 42.2%.
As the probability race graph above highlights, it’s been a bit of a ding-dong battle between Spurs and Villa for a little while now, so it’s certainly a possibility that both continue to be somewhat inconsistent and swap places again.
We also have to consider who each team still has to play…
The Run-In
We can get an idea of the difficulty of each team’s final matches this season by looking at the average rating of their respective opponents in the Opta Power Rankings, a global ranking system that assigns an ability score to 13,000 domestic football teams across the world on a scale between zero and 100, where zero would be attributed to the worst-ranked team and 100 to the best (which is currently Manchester City).
Of the three teams legitimately in the running for the top five at the moment, Villa have the toughest run-in; the average rating of the teams they face between now and mid-May in the Premier League is 89.7, which is second only to Brighton (89.9) in the whole top flight.
Villa still have to face Man City and Arsenal away from home, and they play host to Liverpool in their penultimate match of the season when the Reds could still be battling desperately for the title.
Things aren’t much easier for Spurs on the home straight, though. The average rating of their 10 opponents on the graphic below is 87.8, but it doesn’t include their game in hand against Chelsea (current rating: 88.7) because that still doesn’t have a date after their February encounter had to be rearranged due to the Blues reaching the EFL Cup final.
Like Villa, Spurs also still have to face all of the top three and they are currently scheduled to be back-to-back. The only saving grace for Tottenham is two of those games (City and Arsenal) will be at home. There’s also the possibility that the derby with Chelsea gets thrown into that sequence of games as well, making a particularly grim run of matches.
According to the Opta Power Rankings, United have the easiest run-in of these three clubs. Both of their games against members of the leading pack (Liverpool and Arsenal) will be at Old Trafford, where they also have to face Sheffield United, Newcastle and Burnley.
Their remaining away games – against Brentford, Chelsea, Bournemouth, Crystal Palace, and Brighton – are also, arguably, all matches they will fancy their chances of getting results in.
So, while Spurs and Villa hold a considerable advantage right now, there could yet be many twists in the tale; the title race looks set to thrill neutrals over the coming months, but this scrap has huge potential as well.
Strap yourselves in.
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