The UEFA Champions League holders are in a great position to reach the quarter-finals again. Will they complete the job on Wednesday? We look ahead to the game with our Manchester City vs Copenhagen prediction and preview.
Manchester City vs Copenhagen Stats: The Quick Hits
- Manchester City beat FC Copenhagen in 75.9% of pre-match simulations conducted by the Opta supercomputer, the highest win probability of any team involved in this week’s UEFA Champions League fixtures.
- Man City boss Pep Guardiola has progressed from all nine of his previous two-legged Champions League ties when winning the first leg away from home.
- Phil Foden has seven goal involvements in the Champions League this season (four goals, three assists), already his most in a single campaign in the competition.
Match Preview
Manchester City marched on in their quest for back-to-back trebles on Sunday, securing a 3-1 derby win over Manchester United after coming from a goal down. It leaves them one point behind Premier League leaders Liverpool ahead of their trip to Anfield next weekend.
Before that potential title decider, though, there’s the small matter of their UEFA Champions League last-16 tie with FC Copenhagen to wrap up, with City in a commanding position after their 3-1 win in Denmark.
Kevin De Bruyne, Bernardo Silva and Phil Foden scored as Man City put one foot in the quarter-finals with last month’s routine triumph at Parken Stadium, and Pep Guardiola has never been eliminated from a two-legged Champions League tie after winning the first leg away from home, progressing in all nine previous instances with City (six times), Bayern Munich (twice) and Barcelona (once).
Foden was also the star of the show on the domestic front on Sunday, scoring twice – the first a long-range stunner – as City overcame United at the Etihad Stadium. Foden’s tally of 18 goals across all competitions this season is already his best in a single campaign, while he has now surpassed David Silva to move into the top 10 in City’s all-time goalscoring charts, with 78.
Foden is also enjoying his best Champions League campaign in terms of total goal involvements, with seven (four goals, three assists), while he leads all other players in the competition for passes that have broken the opposition’s defensive line (17).
De Bruyne, meanwhile, is City’s leading scorer in the knockout stages of the Champions League with his 12 goals narrowly edging out Silva, who has 11. De Bruyne has been involved in 20 goals in his last 22 appearances in the Champions League’s knockout stages, with 10 goals and 10 assists.
Given City’s commanding position in the tie and with that trip to Anfield looming large, Guardiola could make changes for Wednesday’s game, with Jack Grealish their only absentee. Julián Álvarez, Matheus Nunes, Mateo Kovačić and Josko Gvardiol could come in if the hosts opt to rotate.
With Copenhagen needing a two-goal victory to take the tie to extra time, control will be key for City, who have the highest pass completion rate while under pressure of any team in the Champions League this season (90.6%). Copenhagen, meanwhile, have the lowest such figure of any team to reach the last 16, with 76.2%.
Copenhagen’s sequences in the Champions League this term, meanwhile, have started an average of 38.6 metres from their own goal, the deepest of any team remaining in the competition. City, predictably, are near the other end of the scale at 46.1 metres, with only Real Sociedad (48) and Barcelona (46.2) recording higher figures ahead of this week’s matches.
Indeed, Copenhagen enter the second leg as huge underdogs, with the Opta supercomputer giving them just a 2% chance of reaching the last eight. On Friday, Jacob Neestrup’s men suffered a damaging 2-0 defeat to Danish Superliga title rivals FC Midtjylland, who have pulled three points clear of them at the summit.
Wednesday’s match will be just their fourth in the Champions League knockout stages, and they are winless in their previous three (one draw, two losses). They last won on the road in the competition in December 2016 (2-0 at Club Brugge) and they have only scored twice in their last six Champions League away trips.
However, they will hope to land a blow after Magnus Mattsson took advantage of an Ederson mistake to score in the first leg. Having signed from Eredivisie side NEC Nijmegen in January, he became just the second player in Champions League history to make his debut in the knockout stages and net against the holders, after Leroy Sané (for FC Schalke against Real Madrid in 2015).
The Danish champions will not sit off City entirely; after the first legs of all last-16 ties had been played, the three players to have applied the most pressures in the Champions League this season were Copenhagen trio Mohamed Elyounoussi (683), Viktor Claesson (651) and Elias Achouri (628).
Manchester City vs Copenhagen Head-to-Head
Manchester City are unbeaten in five previous meetings with Copenhagen in European competitions, winning three and drawing two.
The teams’ last meeting at the Etihad Stadium was a group-stage clash in October 2022, with Erling Haaland scoring twice in a 5-0 win for the Citizens.
Overall, Copenhagen are winless in seven away games against English opponents in major European competitions, drawing two and losing five. They have failed to score a single goal on their last four trips to England, all of which have come in the Champions League.
Recent Form
City can join an exclusive list on Wednesday, having won their last nine games in the Champions League in a run spanning the 2022-23 and 2023-24 campaigns.
Only Real Madrid (a run of 10 ending in February 2015) and Bayern (a 15-match streak in November 2020 and a 10-game run in November 2013) have previously enjoyed winning streaks reaching double figures in the competition.
At the Etihad Stadium, City have scored at least three goals in each of their last eight Champions League games. Only three teams have previously enjoyed such a run in European Cup/Champions League history – Bayern in 2016, Madrid in 1964 and Benfica in 1962. No team has ever achieved the feat in nine straight games.
City only need one goal, however, to make club history on Wednesday. They have scored in each of their last 55 home matches across all competitions, matching their club-record run set between January 2012 and January 2014. Few would bet against them breaking new ground here.
Copenhagen have avoided defeat in two of their three away Champions League games this season, earning draws with Galatasaray (2-2) and Bayern (0-0), though they were beaten on their last trip to Manchester, going down 1-0 to United at Old Trafford in October.
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system that assigns an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off on Wednesday night, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
Manchester City vs Copenhagen Prediction
FC Copenhagen are hoping to spring one of the biggest surprises in Champions League history on Wednesday, but the Opta supercomputer gives them little chance of doing so.
Of 10,000 match simulations conducted ahead of kick-off, Man City won a huge 75.9% compared to Copenhagen’s 9.6%, with the remaining 14.5% finishing level.
The Premier League club progress from this tie in 98.0% of the Opta supercomputer’s simulations, meanwhile, retaining their European crown in 33.1% of our tournament projections. Last season’s finalists Inter (16.8%) and 14-time winners Madrid (16.5%) are seen as their most likely challengers.
Manchester City vs Copenhagen UCL Squads
Manchester City: Stefan Ortega, Ederson, Scott Carson, Kyle Walker, Rúben Dias, John Stones, Nathan Aké, Sergio Gómez, Joško Gvardiol, Manuel Akanji, Mateo Kovačić, Jack Grealish, Rodri, Kevin De Bruyne, Bernardo Silva, Matheus Nunes, Phil Foden, Erling Haaland, Jérémy Doku, Julián Álvarez.
Head Coach: Pep Guardiola
FC Copenhagen: Kamil Grabara, Theo Sander, Rúnar Rúnarsson, Kevin Diks, Denis Vavro, David Khocholava, Christian Sørensen, Nicolai Boilesen, Peter Ankersen, Birger Meling, Scott McKenna, Viktor Claesson, Magnus Mattsson, Mohamed Elyounoussi, Lukas Lerager, Diogo Gonçalves, Jordan Larsson, Andreas Cornelius, Khouma Babacar, Elias Achouri, Rasmus Falk.
Head Coach: Jacob Neestrup
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