Having fallen adrift in the Bundesliga, Thomas Tuchel’s team bid to avoid a humiliating UEFA Champions League exit. We look ahead to Tuesday’s last-16 second leg with our Bayern Munich vs Lazio prediction and preview.
Bayern Munich vs Lazio Stats: The Quick Hits
- Bayern Munich must win Tuesday’s second leg to have any chance of avoiding an early UEFA Champions League exit; they beat Lazio in 71.8% of the Opta supercomputer’s pre-match simulations.
- Bayern have been eliminated from each of their last seven Champions League ties when losing the first leg, and from 11 of 14 such ties overall.
- Harry Kane has been involved in 19 goals in 19 home Champions League appearances overall, but he has no goals in three home knockout games in the competition.
Match Preview
If Bayern Munich thought announcing Thomas Tuchel’s departure in advance would focus minds and aid their bid to retain the Bundesliga crown, they thought wrong. Yet another slip-up saw Bayern drop to 10 points adrift of Bayer Leverkusen, meaning the UEFA Champions League now surely represents their most realistic shot at silverware this term. However, following their 1-0 defeat in the first leg, the Bavarian giants face an uphill task against Lazio at the Allianz Arena on Tuesday.
Bayern were on course for a morale-boosting victory over Freiburg on Friday when Mathys Tel’s stunner and Jamal Musiala’s solo effort overturned Christian Günter’s opener, but Lucas Höler fired home late on to secure a 2-2 draw and deal another huge blow to Bayern’s title hopes. With Xabi Alonso’s Leverkusen taking advantage by beating Köln 2-0 on Sunday, the Opta supercomputer now rates Bayern’s hopes of a 12th straight German crown at just 4.7%.
The Champions League may offer Tuchel his only chance to end a disappointing spell in Bavaria on a high, but Ciro Immobile’s penalty handed Lazio a 1-0 victory in the first leg of this tie, giving the Biancocelesti something to defend on Tuesday.
Bayern have only been eliminated as early as the last 16 in one of their last 12 Champions League campaigns, going down 3-1 on aggregate to eventual winners Liverpool in 2018-19, though they have gone out in each of their last seven Champions League ties when losing the first leg, and in 11 of 14 such ties overall.
However, on just two previous occasions have Bayern lost the first leg of a last-16 tie in this competition, recovering to win both against Real Madrid in 2006-07 (2-3 first leg, 2-1 second leg, progressed on away goals) and Basel in 2011-12 (0-1 first leg, 7-0 second leg).
If Bayern are to fight back again, they may need Harry Kane to improve his knockout record in Europe’s premier club competition. The England captain has 19 goal involvements in 19 home Champions League appearances for Tottenham and Bayern (15 goals, four assists), but he has never scored in three home knockout matches, with his 15 home goals the most any player has ever scored in the competition without any coming in a knockout game.
Kane will again be supported by Jamal Musiala, who has already made 29 appearances in the Champions League, the most by any German player while aged 21 or under in the competition’s history, ahead of Mario Götze on 28.
Dayot Upamecano is suspended after seeing red for the foul which led to Immobile’s decisive spot-kick in the first leg, while Tuesday’s game will likely come too soon for Kingsley Coman and Serge Gnabry. Leroy Sané could return after missing the trip to Freiburg – the former Manchester City man leads all Bayern players for open-play chances created (12) in the Champions League this term.
Lazio, meanwhile, are bidding to reach their first Champions League quarter-final since 1999-00, when Sven-Göran Eriksson led them through the second group stage. They have lost their two previous away knockout games in this competition, though, against Valencia in the 1999-00 quarter-finals (2-5) and Bayern in 2020-21’s round of 16 (1-2).
Like Bayern, Maurizio Sarri’s men endured a difficult domestic outing on Friday, having three players sent off in an extraordinary 1-0 Serie A defeat to Milan at the Stadio Olimpico. Luca Pellegrini’s second booking reduced Lazio to 10, then Adam Marušić and Mattéo Guendouzi also saw red after Noah Okafor struck the only goal for Milan.
Sitting ninth in Serie A, Lazio look unlikely to compete against Europe’s elite in 2024-25, unless they can capture the trophy this term. Across all major European competitions, they have progressed through 12 of their last 13 knockout ties when winning the first leg, the exception being a UEFA Europa League quarter-final against Salzburg in 2017-18 (4-2 first leg, 1-4 second leg).
While a clean sheet would be enough to take Lazio through, they may need another goal to sit comfortably, and Immobile is the man most likely to provide it.
Immobile is Lazio’s all-time leading scorer in European competitions, hitting 26 goals with nine of those coming in the Champions League. However, while Immobile has 20 goals in 23 European home games for the club (one every 85 minutes), he only has six in 20 road trips (one every 231 minutes).
While Lazio’s red-carded trio of Pellegrini, Marusic and Guendouzi are all eligible to play in Europe, centre-back Patric will miss out through injury, as will midfielder Nicolò Rovella.
Bayern Munich vs Lazio Head-to-Head
Lazio’s win in the first leg was their first over Bayern in the Champions League, after they lost both legs of a round-of-16 tie against them in 2020-21.
The Biancocelesti could now become the first team since Real Madrid, when they went on to lift the trophy in 2016-17, to beat Bayern home and away in the same Champions League campaign.
However, Lazio are winless in four previous Champions League games in Germany, drawing two and losing two.
Bayern’s defeat in Rome ended their 12-game unbeaten run against Italian teams in the Champions League, with the Bundesliga giants having won 10 such matches and drawn two since losing to Inter in March 2011.
Recent Form
Bayern have won just one of their last five games across all competitions (one draw, three defeats), though they have won their last three at the Allianz Arena – against Union Berlin, Borussia Mönchengladbach and RB Leipzig – since losing 1-0 to Werder Bremen in mid-January.
Lazio, meanwhile, have lost three of their four league matches since the first leg, going down to Bologna, Fiorentina and Milan while beating Torino on the road.
Including qualifiers, Lazio have only won one of their last 11 away games in the Champions League (four draws, six defeats), with that lone victory coming at Celtic (2-1) in this season’s group stage.
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system that assigns an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off in Germany on Tuesday, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
Bayern Munich vs Lazio Prediction
Despite their recent struggles, the Opta supercomputer is siding with Bayern Munich ahead of Tuesday’s game. Across 10,000 simulations conducted by the supercomputer before kick-off, Bayern won the second leg in 71.8% compared to 11.6% for Lazio, while the remaining 16.6% finished level.
As for the tie overall, Bayern advance to the last eight in 60.6% of projections, with Lazio doing so in 39.4%.
Bayern’s hopes of capturing their seventh European crown are rated at 5.5%, putting them fifth among all remaining teams in our tournament predictions behind Manchester City, Internazionale, Real Madrid and Paris Saint-Germain, while Lazio are outsiders with a 0.7% chance of going all the way.
Bayern Munich vs Lazio UCL Squads
Bayern Munich: Manuel Neuer, Daniel Peretz, Sven Ulreich, Dayot Upamecano, Kim Min-jae, Matthijs de Ligt, Eric Dier, Bouna Sarr, Raphaël Guerreiro, Sacha Boey, Tarek Buchmann, Noussair Mazraoui, Joshua Kimmich, Leon Goretzka, Leroy Sané, Eric Maxim Choupo-Moting, Alphonso Davies, Konrad Laimer, Jamal Musiala, Serge Gnabry, Harry Kane, Kingsley Coman, Bryan Zaragoza, Thomas Müller, Mathys Tel.
Head Coach: Thomas Tuchel.
Lazio: Luigi Sepe, Ivan Provedel, Luca Pellegrini, Patric, Alessio Romagnoli, Nicolò Casale, Elseid Hysaj, Manuel Lazzari, Mario Gila, Matías Vecino, Daichi Kamada, Felipe Anderson, Matteo Guendouzi, Luis Alberto, Danilo Cataldi, Nicolò Rovella, Adam Marušić, Pedro, Ciro Immobile, Gustav Isaksen, Valentín Castellanos, Mattia Zaccagni.
Head Coach: Maurizio Sarri.
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