Matchday 26 in the Premier League is rounded off by a London derby, with David Moyes’ men in need of a win. We look ahead to Monday’s game with our West Ham vs Brentford prediction and preview.
West Ham vs Brentford Stats: The Quick Hits
- West Ham could do with a result when they host Brentford and the Opta supercomputer makes them favourites, with the Hammers winning 40.3% of the 10,000 pre-match simulations.
- West Ham have lost their last three Premier League matches while failing to score. They last lost more in a row without netting between September and October 2006 (a run of five).
- Lucas Paquetá is in contention for Monday’s game after seven weeks out injured. West Ham have won 10 of their 18 league games when he has started this season, compared to none of seven without the Brazilian.
Match Preview
It’s fair to say 2024 hasn’t been West Ham’s year so far. They ended 2023 with three straight Premier League victories and looked like genuine European hopefuls, but they are winless in eight matches across all competitions since the turn of the year.
Monday’s London derby against Brentford simply has to be a turning point for the Hammers, though manager David Moyes revealed on Friday that he has been offered a new contract despite widespread supporter discontent.
Going into Matchday 26, only Burnley (two) had collected fewer than West Ham’s three points in the Premier League this calendar year. With the Irons managing three draws and three defeats, it is their longest winless run at the start of a year in league action since 2007 (first eight games).
They have produced a series of woeful displays in recent weeks, losing their last three Premier League games without scoring a single goal while shipping 11 at the other end (3-0 vs Manchester United, 6-0 vs Arsenal, 2-0 vs Nottingham Forest). They last lost more successive league games without scoring between September and October 2006, when they endured a run of five.
Taiwo Awoniyi and Callum Hudson-Odoi were on target in West Ham’s defeat at the City Ground last week, with the Hammers’ problems compounded by Kalvin Phillips receiving his first Premier League red card.
That result amplified criticism of Moyes’ reactive style, and West Ham have faced 20 or more shots in eight Premier League games this term, their most in a single season since 2017-18 (11). Prior to the weekend, only Sheffield United (434 shots, 50.85 xGA) and Luton Town (428 shots, 52.28 xGA) had faced more shots or allowed more expected goals against than West Ham (420, 46.7 xGA).
At the other end, West Ham have desperately missed the influence of Lucas Paquetá in recent weeks, with a calf injury keeping him sidelined since early January. They have won 10 of their 18 league matches with Paquetá starting this season (56%), averaging 1.7 goals per game. Without him in their lineup, the Hammers have failed to win in seven outings, netting just 0.7 times per game.
However, Paquetá is in contention to return on Monday and with Phillips suspended, that could mean James Ward-Prowse drops into a deeper midfield role alongside Edson Álvarez or Tomáš Souček. Moyes has no other selection issues to deal with.
Despite showing some improvement since Ivan Toney returned from his eight-month ban, Brentford could also do with a victory to ease any lingering relegation fears, with the Bees sat just five points clear of the drop zone following Tuesday’s 1-0 defeat at Manchester City.
Thomas Frank will have been impressed by Brentford’s defending at the Etihad Stadium, with the visitors holding out until the 71st minute before Erling Haaland made the breakthrough, with that goal meaning the Norwegian has now scored against all 21 teams he has faced in the Premier League.
With Brentford in the midst of a tough run of fixtures, Frank will be depending on more talismanic displays from Toney. The striker has four Premier League goals since making his first appearance of the season on 20 January, more than any other Brentford player in that time, and he also tends to relish playing in London derbies.
Toney has scored 16 Premier League goals in his last 21 games – home and away – in London. Against Brentford’s fellow capital clubs, meanwhile, he has five goals in his last seven appearances.
Brentford have no new selection issues, though they are still without several key players due to long-term injuries. Bryan Mbeumo, Kevin Schade and Ethan Pinnock are not expected to return until the end of March, while Josh Dasilva and Rico Henry are out for the season.
West Ham vs Brentford Head-to-Head
West Ham and Brentford have only contested five previous top-flight matches, with the Bees winning all of them.
In English top-flight history, only three teams have a better 100% win rate against a specific opponent; Man City against Bournemouth (13 games, ahead of Saturday’s match), Arsenal versus Reading (six) and Nottingham Forest versus Portsmouth (six).
West Ham have also conceded at least two goals in all five of their Premier League meetings with Brentford. Reading are the only team to face another side more often in the competition while conceding multiple goals on each occasion, doing so six times against Arsenal.
Nathan Collins’ first goal for Brentford proved decisive as Frank’s men edged a topsy-turvy game 3-2 at the Gtech Community Stadium in November. Neal Maupay was also on target for the Bees while Konstantinos Mavropanos put through his own net, with Mohammed Kudus and Jarrod Bowen scoring for West Ham.
Recent Form
West Ham are winless in four home games across all competitions since beating Manchester United on 23 December. The Hammers played out draws with Brighton (0-0), Bristol City (1-1 in the FA Cup) and Bournemouth (1-1) before being thrashed 6-0 by Arsenal last time out at London Stadium.
That was the joint-heaviest home defeat in their league history, and just their second loss by a six-goal margin in the top flight overall, alongside an 8-2 rout by Blackburn Rovers in December 1963.
Brentford, meanwhile, have lost six of their last seven away games in the Premier League, the exception being a 2-0 win over Wolves at Molineux earlier this month.
The Bees have also lost their last three Premier League London derbies, against Arsenal, Crystal Palace and Tottenham.
Prior to this run, they were unbeaten in 14 meetings with fellow capital clubs, winning eight and drawing six. They last lost four league derbies in a row in September 2012, as a League One club.
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system that assigns an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off on Monday, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
West Ham vs Brentford Prediction
The Opta supercomputer makes West Ham favourites to pick up a much-needed three points on Monday, with the Hammers given a 40.3% chance of victory.
Across 10,000 match simulations conducted by the supercomputer ahead of kick-off, Brentford won 30.9%, with the points being shared in 28.8% of scenarios.
West Ham’s European hopes have taken a hit in recent weeks, and according to the supercomputer, things could yet get worse for Moyes’ men. Eleventh (22.5%) is now their most common position across our season projections, while their chances of a top-seven finish are rated at 9.4%.
Brentford, meanwhile, are backed to extend their stay in the top flight, only dropping to the Championship in 1.7% of simulations. Fourteenth (22.4%) is viewed as the Bees’ most likely position.
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