Mikel Arteta’s side roared back into Premier League title contention last Sunday. Here, we look ahead to the Gunners’ next task with our West Ham vs Arsenal prediction and preview.
West Ham vs Arsenal Stats: The Quick Hits
- Arsenal are tipped to overcome West Ham, triumphing in 43.5% of pre-match simulations by the Opta supercomputer.
- The Gunners have lost just one of their last 15 Premier League away games against West Ham (W9 D5).
- West Ham are looking to complete the Premier League double over Arsenal for the first time since the 2006-07 season.
Having blown the Premier League title race wide open, Arsenal will be aiming to build on their impressive victory over league-leading Liverpool when they visit West Ham at London Stadium for Sunday’s capital-city derby.
Mikel Arteta’s men sliced a five-point deficit with Jürgen Klopp’s Reds to two at the top-flight summit after a 3-1 triumph at Emirates Stadium last Sunday. Bukayo Saka tapped in a simple opener after Alisson denied Kai Havertz’s gilt-edged chance before William Saliba’s miscommunication allowed Luis Díaz to prod against Gabriel Magalhães for a disappointing first-half leveller.
However, Arsenal roared back for a statement victory – reminding Liverpool, Manchester City and Aston Villa of their title credentials – after Alisson, aided by Virgil van Dijk’s error, was twice at fault for second-half strikes from Gabriel Martinelli and Leandro Trossard.
Trossard is averaging a goal or assist every 99 minutes for Arsenal in the Premier League (six goals, 11 assists in 1,684 minutes). Only Thierry Henry (one every 86) and Robin van Persie (98) have a better minutes-per-goal-involvement average for the Gunners than Trossard (minimum 1,000 minutes).
Saka’s form and the impact of Trossard, alongside the impressive Martinelli, in Gabriel Jesus’ injury-enforced absence will have Arteta optimistic. Arsenal sit third in the league table – level on points with Man City, who have a game in hand – ahead of what is turning into a tantalising title race.
Jesus could also return from a troublesome knee issue for Sunday’s kick-off against West Ham, though Oleksandr Zinchenko limped off against Liverpool after a recurrence of his calf injury. The rest of Arteta’s team news largely remains the same: Fábio Vieira, Thomas Partey and Jurriën Timber are still sidelined, although Takehiro Tomiyasu may return to the squad after elimination from the Asian Cup with Japan.
As for Sunday’s hosts, West Ham slumped to a 3-0 defeat against Manchester United at Old Trafford on Matchday 23, Alejandro Garnacho scoring twice after Rasmus Højlund’s pinpoint opener. Alphonse Areola was withdrawn at half-time as a precaution for a head injury sustained in a collision with Kurt Zouma, though is expected to return and move Lukasz Fabianski back to the bench.
United’s dominant success over David Moyes’ side last weekend saw Erik ten Hag’s side leapfrog West Ham into sixth, with the Hammers sitting seventh but just eight points behind fifth-placed Tottenham in the league table heading into Matchday 24.
West Ham’s slide down the table has coincided with the absence of Mohammed Kudus, who returned against United after Africa Cup of Nations duty with Ghana, and Lucas Paquetá. The Brazilian’s thigh injury is unlikely to have improved considerably enough in time for kick-off against Arsenal. Michail Antonio remains as Moyes’ only other absentee.
Moyes can at least continue to rely upon James Ward-Prowse, who has six assists for West Ham in the Premier League this season, including one for the Hammers’ second goal in their 2-0 win at Arsenal in the reverse fixture. Only in 2020-21 has the former Southampton midfielder delivered more assists in a single top-flight campaign (seven).
West Ham vs Arsenal Head-to-Head
West Ham are looking to complete the Premier League double over Arsenal for the first time since 2006-07 after their 2-0 win at Emirates Stadium in December, where Tomás Soucek and Konstantinos Mavropanos scored in an unlikely win.
Alongside the Premier League triumph, the Hammers have also beaten Arsenal 3-1 in the EFL Cup this season when Ben White’s own goal and strikes from Kudus and Jarrod Bowen proved the difference. The last London side to beat the Gunners three times in the same campaign was Chelsea in 2005-06, while the only time West Ham have done so was in 1924-25.
However, Arsenal have lost just one of their last 15 Premier League away games against West Ham (W9 D5), going down 1-0 in January 2019 thanks to Declan Rice.
Moyes does not enjoy facing Sunday’s opponents either, having lost 22 of his 37 Premier League games against Arsenal (W5 D10), only suffering defeats more often against Liverpool (24). The former Manchester United and Everton manager is yet to beat Arsenal at home as West Ham boss in the competition, drawing three and losing one of his four games.
East London comforts are aplenty for West Ham, who are unbeaten in their last six Premier League home games (W3 D3). They are yet to go seven without defeat at London Stadium in the competition, though, last going longer without a home league defeat in April 2016 at Upton Park under Slaven Bilic (15).
Indeed, West Ham’s last home defeat came in a 1-0 reverse against Everton back in October, although Arteta’s side have started the new year in impressive form.
Having failed to win their final three Premier League games in 2023 – drawing with Liverpool before defeats to West Ham and Fulham – Arsenal won their first three in 2024 against Palace, Nottingham Forest and Liverpool. Only in 1935 have the Gunners ever won each of their first four league games in a calendar year.
Watch out for late drama, too, with no team scoring more goals past the 90th minute in the Premier League this season than Arsenal’s eight heading into MD 24, while Arteta’s men are the only team yet to concede a 90th-minute goal in 2023-24.
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system that assigns an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off this weekend, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
West Ham vs Arsenal Prediction
Arsenal are seen as favourites by the Opta supercomputer, winning 43.5% of 10,000 pre-match simulations compared to a West Ham triumph in just 28.6% and the draw at 27.9%.
Victory over Liverpool boosted Arsenal’s title chances to 7.3% in Opta’s end-of-season predictions ahead of MD 24, with the Reds (25.7%) and Manchester City (66.6%) ranking ahead of them.
Meanwhile, West Ham have an unlikely 0.8% chance of finishing in the Premier League’s top four. A finishing positon of eighth – one below their current position – occurs the most often, in 20% of the same data-led simulations.