Ange Postecoglou’s side will be out to exact revenge on Saturday as they host Roberto De Zerbi’s Seagulls. We look ahead to this Premier League game with our Tottenham vs Brighton preview and prediction.
Tottenham vs Brighton Stats: The Quick Hits
- Tottenham are predicted to defeat Brighton, winning 49.7% of pre-match simulations by the Opta supercomputer.
- Brighton are aiming to win back-to-back league games against Spurs for the first time.
- Richarlison has scored more goals than any other Premier League player (nine) since the start of December.
Match Preview
Tottenham will be looking to extend their four-game Premier League unbeaten run and boost their UEFA Champions League qualification hopes when they host Brighton at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium on Saturday.
Having been dumped out at the FA Cup fourth round by Manchester City last month, alongside an EFL Cup second-round exit to Fulham back in August, Spurs’ hopes of silverware for the 2023-24 season have significantly diminished – despite a confident rebuttal from manager Ange Postecoglou that they can still win the Premier League.
Postecoglou’s side have just a meagre 0.1% chance of their first top-flight title since 1961 – and a first piece of silverware since winning the EFL Cup in 2008 – compared to Aston Villa (0.3%), Arsenal (7.3%), Liverpool (25.7%) and favourites Manchester City (66.6%) in Opta’s end-of-season predictions from 10,000 data-backed simulations.
A more realistic target may be qualifying for the Champions League. Tottenham sit fifth in the table heading into Matchday 24, two points behind fourth-placed Aston Villa, five adrift of Arsenal and Man City and only seven away from Premier League leaders Liverpool.
That gap to the top four would have been smaller if not for a 2-2 draw against Everton at Goodison Park in Saturday’s early kick-off, where Jarrad Branthwaite capitalised on Cristian Romero’s accidental flick-on to score a 94th-minute equaliser. That last-gasp leveller was Tottenham’s eighth goal conceded in the 90th minute or later this season, their most in a single Premier League campaign and the most of any side in the division this term.
Richarlison had earlier twice found the net against his former employers on MD 23, either side of Jack Harrison’s first-half equaliser, taking the Brazilian striker to nine goals in his last eight Premier League games – the most goals in the league since the start of December. It was also his sixth brace in the competition overall, of which half have come at Goodison Park (3/6).
Postecoglou may be grateful for the form of Richarlison – whose only blank in that impressive run came against Brighton – given the absence of Son Heung-min, who could come back for Saturday after South Korea were knocked out of the Asian Cup by Jordan in Tuesday’s semi-final. Spurs’ lineup will also be boosted by the return of Yves Bissouma after his Africa Cup of Nations exit with Mali, alongside a potential comeback for Giovani Lo Celso from a thigh injury. Postecoglou confirmed on Friday that Manor Solomon and Ryan Sessegnon are the only definite absentees.
As for Saturday’s visitors, Brighton responded to a 4-0 humiliation against Luton Town with a 4-1 demolition of rivals Crystal Palace on MD 23 at the Amex Stadium. Lewis Dunk, Jack Hinshelwood, Facundo Buonanotte and João Pedro were all on target.
That convincing victory lifted Brighton to eighth in the league table – some nine points behind Spurs – after the Seagulls had two teenagers (Hinshelwood and Buonanotte) score in a single Premier League game for a second time (also Evan Ferguson and Julio Enciso against Bournemouth in April 2023).
In contrast to the vibrant youth on offer for De Zerbi, Dunk also remains an ever-reliant figure at both ends of the pitch, having headed in Pascal Groß’s set-piece delivery for the third-minute opener against Palace. Since Brighton’s first Premier League campaign in 2017-18, only two defenders have scored more goals in the competition than Dunk’s 15 (Marcos Alonso, 19 and Virgil van Dijk, 17), while five of his last seven goals in top-flight football have been assisted by Groß.
De Zerbi is going to miss the game as he needs to have dental surgery, so assistant manager Andrea Maldera will take charge of the team. He will be without João Pedro who has picked up a hamstring injury, and also remains without Solly March, James Milner, Enciso and Joël Veltman, who are all injured. Simon Adingra remains at the AFCON with Ivory Coast, but Kaoru Mitoma has travelled with the team after he returned from the Asian Cup following Japan’s elimination.
Tottenham vs Brighton Head-to-Head
Tottenham have won six of their last seven home league games against Brighton, with the exception being a 1-0 loss in April 2022 as Leandro Trossard – now of Arsenal – scored a 90th-minute winner.
However, Brighton were 4-2 winners in the reverse fixture in December as João Pedro (2), Jack Hinshelwood and Pervis Estupiñán were all on target before late strikes from Alejo Véliz and Ben Davies gave the score some respectability for the visitors.
That tees this fixture up nicely for the Seagulls, who are looking to win back-to-back league meetings with Spurs for the very first time.
Recent Form
Brighton may be unbeaten in their last 10 Premier League home games (W5 D5) but they have won just one of their last nine on the road in the competition (D3 L5), conceding 21 goals across these nine matches. They had started the season with two away wins against Wolves and Manchester United.
Tottenham are at the opposite end of the scale, having lost just one of their last eight (W5 D2) – the 4-2 reverse against Brighton – following a woeful run of four defeats in five Premier League games from the start of November (D1).
Postecoglou has Spurs at their free-scoring best, too, managing a goal in each of their last 35 Premier League games (73 goals total) since a 1-0 defeat to Wolves in March 2023. Finding the net in this match will make this the joint-second-longest scoring streak by a side in the competition’s history (36, level with Liverpool from Mar 2019-Feb 2020 and Manchester United from Dec 2007-Nov 2008), and would be behind only Arsenal’s run of 55 from May 2001 to November 2002.
Spurs have also scored at least twice in their last eight Premier League games, only having a longer run between September and December 2011 (11). Yet, they’ve conceded twice in each of their last three as well, with West Ham in April 2021 the last team to score and concede 2+ goals in four consecutive Premier League matches.
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system that assigns an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off this weekend, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
Tottenham vs Brighton Prediction
The Opta supercomputer predicts Tottenham winning on Saturday as the hosts triumph in 49.7% of 10,000 pre-match simulations, compared to an away victory for Brighton in 23.7%.
A draw appears more likely than the Seagulls succeeding, with that result forecast in 26.6% of the data-led scenarios, though that would do little to aid Spurs’ top-four push.
Tottenham’s most likely finish in Opta’s end-of-season simulations remains fifth – their current position – at 40.6%, with Spurs securing a top-four place in 40.1% of scenarios. Meanwhile, Brighton are backed to move a place up the league table to seventh 19.7% of the time.
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