Borussia Dortmund topped the UEFA Champions League’s ‘Group of Death’, but how will they fare in the last 16? We look ahead to Tuesday’s first leg in Eindhoven with our PSV vs Borussia Dortmund prediction and preview.
PSV vs Borussia Dortmund Stats: The Quick Hits
- Across 10,000 match simulations conducted by the Opta supercomputer, PSV beat Borussia Dortmund in 43.3% of scenarios, with the German giants triumphing in 31.9%.
- BVB have lost eight of their last nine away games in the Champions League’s knockout stages, their only win in this run coming at Sevilla in the last 16 in 2020-21.
- PSV’s Johan Bakayoko was the only player to create 15 or more open-play chances and complete 15 or more dribbles in this season’s Champions League group stage.
Match Preview
When the UEFA Champions League‘s group-stage draw was conducted last August, with Borussia Dortmund landing alongside Paris Saint-Germain, Milan and Newcastle United in Group F, few held out much hope for Edin Terzić’s team.
Indeed, in the first edition of the Opta supercomputer’s 2023-24 tournament predictions, Dortmund reached the round of 16 in just 44.8% of scenarios – fewer than any of their Group F rivals. However, BVB defied those projections by topping the pile, going unbeaten after a 2-0 loss to PSG on Matchday 1. Their reward is a last-16 tie with PSV, who are flying high at the top of Eredivisie.
Peter Bosz’s team have won 20 of their 22 league games this season, drawing the other two, and they only dropped their first points of 2023-24 last month. They finished second to Arsenal in Group B, with their only loss coming at the Emirates Stadium on Matchday 1. Should they avoid defeat on Tuesday, they will match their longest ever unbeaten run in the Champions League – a six-match sequence between October 1997 and September 1998.
In-demand winger Johan Bakayoko has played a key role for PSV this season, creating 15 open-play chances and completing 15 dribbles in the Champions League. Across the entire group stage, he was the only player to reach 15 for both metrics.
Fellow winger Noa Lang is a doubt for Tuesday’s game, having suffered a muscle injury in January. The Netherlands international will be a big miss if he fails to make the PSV squad, having managed nine shot-ending carries in the Champions League this season, with only Rodrygo (13) and Kylian Mbappé (10) recording more.
In attack, PSV will again rely on the evergreen Luuk de Jong, who has scored 27 goals in all competitions this campaign, the latest of those coming in Friday’s 2-0 league win over Heracles Almelo. Thirteen of his efforts have come via headers, which could be cause for concern for a Dortmund side who have been vulnerable from set-plays this season.
Indeed, it was a corner that proved Dortmund’s undoing against Wolfsburg on Saturday, with Gregor Kobel and his defenders failing to clear before Yannick Gerhardt nodded in from close range. That goal cancelled out Niclas Füllkrug’s opener as Dortmund lost ground to Stuttgart and RB Leipzig in the battle for a top-four Bundesliga finish.
Terzić’s men are unbeaten in nine games across all competitions, but five of those matches have finished level, and Dortmund need to find another gear in attack. They netted just seven goals while topping their Champions League group, the joint-fewest of any last-16 qualifier.
They will hope jet-heeled forward Karim Adeyemi can make the difference in the Netherlands, should he recover from a knock that caused him to miss the Wolfsburg game. He has scored on his last two Champions League appearances, and the last Dortmund player to net in more successive games in the competition was Jude Bellingham, who scored in four in a row in October 2022.
Striker Sébastien Haller is out with an ankle injury, while midfielder Felix Nmecha is a long-term absentee and defender Ramy Bensebaini is a doubt, having missed Saturday’s game through illness.
The likes of Donyell Malen, Jamie Bynoe-Gittens and Mats Hummels could return to Dortmund’s lineup after being benched on Saturday. Hummels has provided leadership and composure in the Champions League this term, making 62 line-breaking passes while under pressure in the competition, with PSG’s Achraf Hakimi (71) and Manchester City’s Josko Gvardiol (64) the only defenders with more.
PSV vs Borussia Dortmund Head-to-Head
Dortmund and PSV last faced off in the first group phase in the 2002-03 edition of the Champions League. BVB won 3-1 at the Philips Stadion before the teams played out a 1-1 draw at Signal Iduna Park.
This will be PSV’s first Champions League knockout game against a German side, having lost eight of their 12 matches against German clubs in the group stage (three wins, one draw).
Dortmund’s only previous knockout tie against a Dutch team came in the quarter-finals back in 1995-96, when they lost 3-0 on aggregate to eventual runners-up Ajax.
On their travels, Dortmund have only lost once to Dutch opposition in the Champions League (two wins, one draw), though that lone defeat came on their most recent trip to the Netherlands as they lost 4-0 to Ajax in the group stage in October 2021.
Recent Form
Dortmund are looking to improve on a miserable record in away Champions League knockout games on Tuesday, having lost eight of their last nine such matches (one win).
However, their only victory in that run did come at this same stage in 2020-21, when Terzić’s men beat Sevilla 3-2 in Spain before reaching the quarter-finals with a 2-2 home draw.
BVB have also won their last two away games in the Champions League, beating Newcastle 1-0 and Milan 3-1, and they could now win three in a row under the same manager for the first time since doing so in 2013-14 under Jürgen Klopp.
PSV, meanwhile, are making their first appearance in the Champions League knockout stage since 2015-16, when they were eliminated by Atlético Madrid in the last 16. Their last knockout victory in the competition came back in February 2007, a 1-0 home win over Arsenal at the same stage.
If Dortmund are to take a first-leg lead back to Germany, they will have to breach one of Europe’s proudest fortresses.
PSV’s last competitive defeat at the Philips Stadion came against AZ Alkmaar in November 2022; they are unbeaten in their last 30 home games across all competitions, winning 26 and drawing four.
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system that assigns an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off on Tuesday night, here is the current Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
PSV vs Borussia Dortmund Prediction
Given their incredible home record, it’s perhaps no surprise to see the Opta supercomputer side with PSV for this one.
The Dutch giants win 43.3% of pre-match simulations conducted by the supercomputer, with 24.8% finishing level and Dortmund triumphing in 31.9%.
BVB are favourites to edge the tie overall, though, reaching the last 16 in 57.4% of the supercomputer’s tournament simulations, with PSV doing so in 42.3%.
Dortmund are given a 2.9% chance of lifting the trophy for a second time, the eighth-highest probability assigned to any team remaining in the competition. PSV, meanwhile, claim their second European crown in just 1.4% of scenarios.
PSV vs Borussia Dortmund UCL Squads
PSV Eindhoven: Walter Benítez, Joël Drommel, Boy Waterman, Shurandy Sambo, Jordan Teze, Armando Obispo, André Ramalho, Armel Bella-Kotchap, Sergiño Dest, Mauro Júnior, Jaden De Guzman, Conrad Egan-Riley, Olivier Boscagli, Patrick van Aanholt, Malik Tillman, Guus Til, Jerdy Schouten, Joey Veerman, Tygo Land, Noa Lang, Luuk de Jong, Ricardo Pepi, Hirving Lozano, Richard Ledezma, Ismael Saibari, Tay Abed.
Head Coach: Peter Bosz
Borussia Dortmund: Gregor Kobel, Alexander Meyer, Silas Ostrzinski, Marcel Lotka, Nico Schlotterbeck, Ramy Bensebaini, Mats Hummels, Emre Can, Niklas Süle, Julian Ryerson, Ian Maatsen, Lion Semic, Özcan, Jadon Sancho, Felix Nmecha, Marco Reus, Julien Duranville, Marius Wolf, Julian Brandt, Marcel Sabitzer, Jamie Bynoe-Gittens, Sebastien Haller, Niclas Füllkrug, Youssoufa Moukoko, Donyell Malen, Karim Adeyemi.
Head Coach: Edin Terzić
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