Rob Edwards’ side continue their testing run at another Premier League title contender on Wednesday. We look ahead to that encounter with our Liverpool vs Luton prediction and preview.
Liverpool vs Luton: The Quick Hits
- Liverpool are the heavy favourites to win at Anfield, triumphing in 78.4% of pre-match simulations against Luton Town.
- Luton have played away at Liverpool without ever winning more often than any other opponent in their professional league history (14).
- With an assist here, Mohamed Salah would become just the second player in Premier League history to record 10+ goals and 10+ assists in five separate top-flight campaigns.
Match Preview
Having smashed Brentford in their own backyard before Manchester City were held at home to Chelsea on Saturday, Liverpool will be hoping to further consolidate their Premier League title hopes when they host relegation-threatened Luton Town at Anfield on Wednesday.
Jürgen Klopp’s side sit two points clear of second-placed Arsenal and four ahead of Pep Guardiola’s defending English champions – though the latter have a game in hand – in the league table after the weekend’s action. Darwin Núñez, Alexis Mac Allister, Mohamed Salah and Cody Gakpo were all on target on Matchday 25 as Liverpool hammered Brentford 4-1 at the Gtech Community Stadium, where Ivan Toney’s 75th-minute strike was little more than a consolation.
That victory over Thomas Frank’s men came at a cost, though, as Núñez, Diogo Jota and Curtis Jones were all withdrawn due to injury, forcing the fit-again Salah straight back into action after his return from the Africa Cup of Nations with Egypt. The Liverpool winger still recorded his 23rd and 24th goal involvements of the Premier League campaign (15 goals, nine assists) with a cool finish and assist.
There could be a personal milestone for Salah come Wednesday’s kick-off, too, as one more league assist will make him just the second player in Premier League history to register 10+ goals and 10+ assists in five separate campaigns, joining former Manchester United star Wayne Rooney (also five).
Owing to their injury struggles against Brentford, Salah and Gakpo both scored and assisted from the bench, with Liverpool’s substitutes directly involved in 20 Premier League goals this term. Indeed, that tally is the joint-most the Reds have managed in a single season in the competition, after also recording 20 from replacement players in 2015-16.
Klopp will look to utilise Luis Díaz, who was the only starting attacker not to limp off in London, once more against Luton. The Colombian winger has scored in his last two Premier League appearances at Anfield, while against newly promoted sides in the competition, he’s been directly involved in six goals in nine appearances (five goals, one assist).
The hosts may hope to have Núñez available after his precautionary removal against Brentford, though Jota, Stefan Bajcetic, Jones, Alisson, Thiago Alcântara, Joël Matip, Trent Alexander-Arnold and Dominik Szoboszlai will remain absent from Klopp’s injury-hit lineup and likely miss Sunday’s EFL Cup final with Chelsea at Wembley as well.
As for the visitors, Luton were stunned by an early Rasmus Højlund double and failed to recover in a 2-1 defeat to Manchester United at Kenilworth Road on Sunday, despite Carlton Morris pulling a goal back after just 14 minutes in the MD 25 clash.
Morris is the man in form for Rob Edwards’ side and has also scored in his last two away league games against Burnley and Newcastle United. The last player to score in three successive away Premier League appearances for a promoted side was Aleksandar Mitrovic for Fulham from October 2022 to January 2023.
Edwards will need his towering striker to step up again at Anfield considering top scorer Elijah Adebayo will likely remain out after suffering a hamstring injury in the warm-up against Man Utd. Daiki Hashioka, Mads Andersen, Marvelous Nakamba and Tom Lockyer are the other absentees for Luton, who continue to flirt with an immediate drop back to the Championship.
Last season’s Championship play-off winners dropped down to 18th in the league table after Everton’s 1-1 draw with Crystal Palace on Monday night edged the Hatters into the relegation zone on goal difference, ahead of their next tough task at Liverpool and a home clash with Aston Villa after that.
Liverpool vs Luton Head-to-Head
Liverpool have never lost a home league game against the Hatters (P14 W8 D6), with this their first such meeting since a 2-1 win for the Reds in January 1992.
Indeed, Luton have played away at Liverpool without ever winning more often than any other opponent in their professional league history (14), while the Anfield club have only faced Grimsby Town (18) at home in the league more without ever losing than Edwards’ side.
It isn’t just Luton that have struggled in the red half of Merseyside either, with only four promoted teams ever triumphing in their first Premier League match against Liverpool at Anfield – Newcastle United (1993-94), Barnsley (1997-98), Watford (1999-00) and Blackpool (2010-11).
However, Klopp’s side needed a last-gasp leveller from Díaz in the last meeting between the two sides, with the Colombian winger equalising in the 95th minute for a 1-1 draw at Kenilworth Road back in September after Tahith Chong’s 80th-minute opener.
Recent Form
Home comforts are aplenty for Liverpool, who have lost just one of their last 54 Premier League games at Anfield (W41 D12), going down 2-1 to Jesse Marsch’s Leeds United in October 2022. They are unbeaten in 24 home league games since that defeat (W19 D5).
Klopp’s side have also won each of their last 11 Premier League games played on a Wednesday since a 1-0 loss to Brighton at Anfield in February 2021. At home, the Reds have only lost two of their last 50 matches in the competition on this day of the week (W35 D13).
However, Luton have improved on the road in recent weeks. Edwards’ men are unbeaten in three away league games (W1 D2), against Newcastle, Burnley and Sheffield United.
In that period, the Hatters have picked up more points (five) and scored more goals (eight) than they managed in their first eight away Premier League matches before this (four points, W1 D1 L6, scoring seven goals).
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system that assigns an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
Liverpool vs Luton Prediction
The Opta supercomputer predicts nothing other than Liverpool winning this one, with the Anfield hosts beating Luton in 78.4% of 10,000 pre-match simulations.
Edwards’ visitors are only afforded a mere 7.0% chance of victory in the same data-led predictions, with the draw more likely in 14.6% of forecasted results.
However, Manchester City still remain the favourites to defend their Premier League trophy, winning the top-flight title in 46.1% of Opta’s end-of-season simulations, compared to Liverpool at 38.6% and Arsenal in 15.2%.
Meanwhile, Luton’s relegation chances jumped to 60% after their battling 2-1 home defeat to Manchester United.
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