We look ahead to this AFCON 2023 quarter-final tie at the Charles Konan Banny Stadium in Yamoussoukro with our Cape Verde vs South Africa prediction and preview.
Cape Verde vs South Africa: Pre-Match Facts
- The Opta supercomputer can barely separate these two, with Cape Verde winning the game inside 90 minutes in 37.5% of pre-match simulations and South Africa triumphing in 35.2% of them.
- Cape Verde and South Africa will meet for the second time at the CAF Africa Cup of Nations, after a 0-0 draw in the group stage in 2013.
- Their only previous AFCON encounter was Cape Verde’s very first match in the competition and the opening game of the 2013 edition – hosted by South Africa.
- South Africa have reached the quarter-finals in three of their last four appearances at the Africa Cup of Nations, while they’re looking to reach the semi-finals of the competition for the first time since 2000 (when they lost 2-0 against Nigeria).
- Cape Verde have won three of their four matches at AFCON 2023 (D1), scoring eight goals. That is more victories and more goals than in their previous 11 games in the competition combined (W2 D6 L3 GF6).
- Cape Verde are looking to reach the semi-finals of the Africa Cup of Nations for the first time, with this their second quarter-final appearance after a 2-0 defeat to Ghana in 2013.
- South Africa have kept three consecutive clean sheets at the Africa Cup of Nations for the first time since February 1998; the Bafana Bafana have never stopped their opponents from scoring in four AFCON matches in a row.
- South Africa have made just two changes to their starting eleven at AFCON 2023, the joint fewest of any side, while Cape Verde have made 14 – only Guinea (17) have made more in the competition.
- At 29 years and 64 days old, Cape Verde have the oldest average starting XI at AFCON 2023. Indeed, five of their eight goals have been scored by players aged 30 or over – the last team with more goals in a single edition from players aged 30+ was Egypt in 1998 (7).
- Themba Zwane has been directly involved in 50% (3/6) of South Africa’s goals at this year’s tournament (two goals, one assist), while he could become the first Bafana Bafana player to score three goals in a single edition of AFCON since Shaun Bartlett in 2000 (5).
- Ryan Mendes has been directly involved in more goals (four – two goals, two assists) than any other Cape Verde player at the Africa Cup of Nations, while his three goal involvements (two goals, one assist) at AFCON 2023 is also the most by a Cape Verde player in a single edition.
Match Preview
Neither Cape Verde nor South Africa will have realistically thought they would be here. Facing one another in the 2023 Africa Cup of Nations quarter-finals when the vast majority would have expected it to be Egypt vs Morocco.
Cape Verde finished top of a group that contained Egypt and Ghana, while South Africa sent World Cup 2022 semi-finalists Morocco packing in the round of 16 on Tuesday.
Now the teams ranked 73rd and 66th respectively in the world by FIFA meet for a place in the final four of AFCON 2023, and on paper, it’s anyone’s game.
Their 2-2 draw in their final Group B game against Egypt is the only time Cape Verde haven’t won a game so far in this year’s tournament (W3), and they are looking to reach the AFCON semi-finals for the first time ever. The Blue Sharks beat Mauritania 1-0 in the round of 16, taking them to just their second ever quarter-final after a 2-0 loss to Ghana in the 2013 tournament.
Bubista’s side have certainly relied on their experience. Cape Verde have the oldest average starting XI at AFCON 2023 at 29 years and 64 days old. Five of their eight goals have been scored by players aged 30 or over, with Egypt the last team with more goals in a single edition from players aged 30+ back in 1998 (7).
South Africa produced one of the many shocks of the tournament when they beat Morocco 2-0 in the last 16. Goals from Evidence Makgopa and Teboho Mokoena secured victory against the Atlas Lions, handing the Bafana Bafana their third quarter-final in their last four AFCONs, though they are looking to reach the semi-finals for the first time since 2000.
Manager Hugo Broos will be relying on his team’s solid defence to help them advance, having kept three consecutive clean sheets at the Africa Cup of Nations for the first time since February 1998. However, South Africa have never stopped their opponents from scoring in four AFCON matches in a row.
Going the other way, Themba Zwane will hope to make a contribution again. He has been directly involved in 50% (3/6) of South Africa’s goals at this year’s tournament (two goals, one assist), and could become the first player to score three goals in a single edition of AFCON for the Bafana Bafana since Shaun Bartlett in 2000 (5).
The winner will face either new tournament favourites Nigeria or Angola in the final four.
Cape Verde vs South Africa Head-to-Head
Cape Verde and South Africa will meet for the second time at the Africa Cup of Nations, after a 0-0 draw in the group stage in 2013. That was Cape Verde’s first ever AFCON match and the opening game of the tournament, hosted by South Africa.
They have also clashed four times in World Cup qualifiers, with South Africa winning twice in the campaign for the 2006 tournament, while Cape Verde returned the favour in the campaign for the 2018 World Cup.
Cape Verde vs South Africa Prediction
Cape Verde are made slight favourites by the Opta supercomputer, but it’s a very close run thing. The Blue Sharks are given a 37.5% chance of winning inside 90 minutes, with South Africa handed a 35.2% chance. The draw – which would send it to extra time – is rated at 27.3%.
Overall, Cape Verde advanced from the tie in 51.3% of the 10,000 pre-match simulations, with South Africa going through the other 48.7% of the time.
Despite the elimination of the likes of Egypt, Morocco, Senegal, Algeria and Cameroon, neither of these two are considered among the favourites to win the whole tournament, with a less than 10% chance each. The latest Opta supercomputer predictions are below:
Cape Verde vs South Africa Squads
Cape Verde: Márcio da Rosa, Vózinha, Dylan Silva, Stopira, Dylan Tavares, João Correia, Logan Costa, Steven Moreira, Pico, Diney Borges, Kenny Rocha, Laros Duarte, Deroy Duarte, Kevin Pina, Cuca, Patrick Andrade, Jamiro Monteiro, João Paulo, Ryan Mendes, Willy Semedo, Garry Rodrigues, Jovane Cabral, Bebé, Bryan Teixeira, Hélio Varela, Gilson Benchimol.
Coach: Bubista
South Africa: Ronwen Williams, Ricardo Goss, Veli Mothwa, Siyanda Xulu, Tapelo Xoki, Khuliso Mudau, Mothobi Mvala, Nyiko Mobbie, Nkosinathi Sibisi, Terrence Mashego, Thapelo Morena, Grant Kekana, Themba Zwane, Teboho Mokoena, Sibongiseni Mthethwa, Thabang Monare, Aubrey Modiba, Oswin Appollis, Sphephelo Sithole, Jayden Adams, Thapelo Maseko, Elias Mokwana, Percy Tau, Evidence Makgopa, Iqraam Rayners, Zakhele Lepasa, Mihlali Mayambela.
Coach: Hugo Broos
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