The Gunners are still competing at the Premier League summit, with Eddie Howe’s side their next visitors in north London. We look ahead to the clash with our Arsenal vs Newcastle United prediction and preview.
Arsenal vs Newcastle Stats: The Quick Hits
- Arsenal are predicted to beat Newcastle United, winning 55.1% of pre-match simulations by the Opta supercomputer.
- Bukayo Saka has scored in four consecutive Premier League appearances for Arsenal, scoring as many goals in this run (6) as he managed in his first 20 games this season.
- Arsenal have begun a calendar year with five successive league wins for the first time in the club’s history, improving their goal difference by +19 during this run (21GF, 2GA).
Match Preview
Having suffered a woeful end to 2023, Arsenal have roared back into Premier League title contention as Mikel Arteta’s side prepare for another tough test of their credentials when they host Newcastle United at Emirates Stadium on Saturday.
Arsenal are yet to lose a league game in 2024, demolishing Crystal Palace, West Ham and Burnley alongside victories over leaders Liverpool and struggling Nottingham Forest. Arteta’s men sit just five points behind Jürgen Klopp’s Reds, who have played a game more, and one adrift of second-placed Manchester City in the table heading into the weekend’s fixtures.
The Gunners were beaten 1-0 at Porto in the first leg of their UEFA Champions League last-16 tie on Wednesday, but Arsenal are unbeaten in their last 20 Premier League games that have come after playing a midweek European clash (W16 D4), since a 1-0 loss to Man City in February 2021. They were also in fine shape before the trip to Portugal, smashing Burnley 5-0 on Matchday 25; that was the third time in the Premier League this year they’ve scored 5+ goals.
Martin Ødegaard, Bukayo Saka (2), Leandro Trossard and Kai Havertz were all on target as the Premier League title contenders humiliated Vincent Kompany’s relegation-threatened Clarets at Turf Moor last Saturday. England winger Saka has scored in four consecutive Premier League appearances for Arsenal, scoring as many goals in this run (six) as he managed in his first 20 games this season. The last player to score in more successive league appearances for the Gunners was Olivier Giroud between February/April 2015 (six), while the last Englishman to do so was Ian Wright between September/November 1994 (seven).
Ødegaard continues to prove a reliable attacking resource, too, with the Norwegian captain involved in 33 Premier League goals (20 goals, 13 assists) since the start of last season, more than any midfielder in the same period. Yet Arteta’s side have also found alternative ways to breach the opposition’s defence as their 25 set-piece goals (including penalties) this season is a club-record high in a single Premier League campaign since Opta began collecting such data in 2004-05.
In terms of team news, Arteta welcomed back Fábio Vieira for the Porto trip on Wednesday, while Oleksandr Zinchenko, Gabriel Jesus and Takehiro Tomiyasu are very close to returning. They’ll remain without Thomas Partey and Jurriën Timber for the time being, however.
As for Saturday’s visitors, Newcastle have enjoyed something of a resurgence since their 3-2 defeat to Manchester City in January, with Eddie Howe’s injury-hit side going four unbeaten in the league (W2 D2), winning each of their last two away from home, as many wins as in their previous 14 on the road (D4 L8).
Newcastle trail seventh-placed Brighton by one point, Erik ten Hag’s Manchester United are seven ahead and Tottenham 10 clear after Howe’s men could only draw 2-2 with Bournemouth at St James’ Park on MD 25. Anthony Gordon’s penalty and Matt Richie’s 92nd-minute leveller against his former side snatched a point after earlier goals from Dominic Solanke and Antoine Semenyo.
Joe Willock and Alexander Isak could return on Saturday, though the away side remain without Matt Targett, Nick Pope, Elliot Anderson, Joelinton, Callum Wilson and Sandro Tonali, while Fabian Schär’s availability remains unclear. Isak’s return may ease the attacking burden on Gordon, who, following his winner in the reverse fixture in November, could become just the second Newcastle player to score home and away against Arsenal in a single Premier League campaign after Peter Beardsley did so in back-to-back seasons (1993-94 and 1994-95).
Yet goals for the Magpies don’t come often at Arsenal. Ayoze Pérez was the last Newcastle player to score an away Premier League goal against Arsenal (December 2014), failing to convert any of their 63 attempts on goal at the Emirates since ahead of Saturday’s late evening kick-off.
Arsenal vs Newcastle Head-to-Head
Having won 1-0 at St James’ Park in November after Gordon’s contentious goal, Newcastle are looking to complete the Premier League double against Arsenal for just the second time, previously doing so in 1994-95.
Arsenal have failed to score in three of their last four Premier League games against Newcastle, too, as many as they had in their previous 27 against them. However, their 30 Premier League clean sheets against the Magpies is the most any side has kept against another in the competition.
The Gunners have kept seven consecutive home clean sheets against Newcastle as well, though they’ve never kept eight successive shutouts on home soil against an opponent in their league history (also seven vs Man City between 1979-1989).
Arteta’s side are also unbeaten in their last 11 Premier League home games against Newcastle, with last season’s goalless draw ending a 10-game winning run. Their last such defeat against them was in November 2010.
Recent Form
Arsenal have begun a calendar year with five successive league wins for the first time in the club’s history, defeating Burnley, West Ham, Palace, Nottingham Forest and Liverpool, while improving their goal difference by +19 during this run (21GF, 2GA).
Only between February-April 2023 (a run of seven) have Arsenal won more Premier League games consecutively in a single season under manager Arteta, who remains unbeaten at home against Newcastle without conceding a single goal (W4 D1, across all competitions).
Defensive solidity has been key for Arteta’s side this term, too, with Arsenal facing just two shots on target in their last three Premier League games (1 v Liverpool, 1 v West Ham and none vs Burnley), conceding a combined xG of just 0.9 across those matches. The last side to face one or fewer shots on target in four consecutive Premier League matches was Arsenal themselves between April-May 2021.
By contrast, Newcastle may be unbeaten in four matches but have conceded 16 goals in their six Premier League games since the turn of the year (W2 D2 L2), as many as in their final 11 league games of 2023.
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system that assigns an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off this weekend, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
Arsenal vs Newcastle Prediction
Arsenal are predicted to beat Newcastle at the Emirates, with the hosts winning 55.1% of 10,000 pre-match simulations by the Opta supercomputer, compared to an away triumph in just 19.7%.
A draw would also continue Arsenal’s impressive unbeaten run against Howe’s men, with that result predicted in 25.2% of data-led scenarios, though that would do little for their title charge.
Manchester City (49.4%) and Liverpool (36.2%) still rank firmly ahead of Arsenal (14.3%) in terms of title chances in Opta’s end-of-season simulations after their respective midweek wins over Brentford and Luton Town, while Newcastle are forecast to finish seventh – one above their current league-table position – in 25.7%.
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