The Stade Laurent Pokou prepares to host the finale to Group F in the 2023 Africa Cup of Nations. We look ahead to the game with our Zambia vs Morocco prediction and preview.

Zambia vs Morocco: Pre-Match Facts

  • According to the Opta supercomputer’s predictions, Morocco have a 60.7% chance of victory in this game, compared to 18.5% for Zambia.
  • This will be the third encounter between Zambia and Morocco at the CAF Africa Cup of Nations. Both previous meetings were in the group stages: Morocco won 1-0 in 1986 before a draw in 1998 (1-1).
  • Zambia and Morocco’s last encounter was in the African Nations Championship in January 2021, with Morocco winning 3-1 in Cameroon.
  • Zambia have won none of their last 11 AFCON matches against North African teams (Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco, Tunisia), drawing five and losing six.
  • Zambia have drawn eight of their last nine matches at the Africa Cup of Nations, losing the other against Cape Verde in 2015. They last drew all three of their group matches in 2013 when they were reigning champions.
  • Morocco are unbeaten in their last 10 Africa Cup of Nations group stage matches, winning eight and drawing two since losing to DR Congo in 2017.
  • Zambia have only conceded seven goals in their last 12 Africa Cup of Nations matches, although they’ve conceded in their last two. They haven’t gone three in a row without a clean sheet since between January 2008 and January 2010 (five in a row).
  • Seven of Morocco’s last nine Africa Cup of Nations goals have been scored via a set piece (two penalties, two direct free-kicks, one indirect free-kick and two corner goals), including their most recent goal against DR Congo via a corner.
  • Morocco have scored at least once in each of their last 11 games at the Africa Cup of Nations, their joint-longest run of scoring in the competition, also netting in their first 11 games between 1972 and 1978.
  • Patson Daka has been involved in both of Zambia’s goals at the 2023 Africa Cup of Nations (1 goal, 1 assist). He’s the first Zambian player to score and assist at an AFCON tournament since 2012, when Christopher Katongo, Stoppila Sunzu and Rainford Kalaba all did so.
  • Achraf Hakimi has scored (3) or assisted (1) four of Morocco’s last eight goals at the Africa Cup of Nations. At the 2023 AFCON, he’s created more chances (6) than any of his Moroccan teammates.

Match Preview

Zambia and Morocco battle it out on Wednesday night with qualification for the 2023 Africa Cup of Nations last 16 firmly in their sights.

Zambia’s last win at the AFCON still dates back to 2012 when they beat Ghana 1-0 in the semi-finals. They, of course, went on to lift the trophy in the final – beating Ivory Coast on penalties – but that game is one of eight draws they’ve played out in their last nine matches, losing the other against Cape Verde in 2015.

This year has been no different, with their two opening games ending in 1-1 draws against DR Congo and Tanzania. The latter was a particularly disappointing result given Avram Grant’s side were decent favourites to win that match. Instead, they required a late Patson Daka header to save a point after defender Rodrick Kabwe had been dismissed just before half-time.

Zamibia 1-1 Tanzania xG Stats

Daka has been involved in both of Zambia’s goals at the 2023 Africa Cup of Nations (1 goal, 1 assist). He’s the first Zambian player to score and assist at an AFCON tournament since 2012, when Christopher Katongo, Stoppila Sunzu and Rainford Kalaba all did so.

The scenario for Zambia is simple: they need to win to guarantee qualification for the last 16. A draw won’t necessarily eliminate them, but DR Congo are favourites against Tanzania, and three points in total will leave it touch-and-go as to whether they qualify as one of the best third-placed teams.

Morocco came into this tournament as our third favourites and started brightly, easily brushing aside Tanzania 3-0 in their first game.

The Atlas Lions found the going much harder against a competitive DR Congo side, having to make do with a point. Achraf Hakimi got his side off to a fast start with a goal after five minutes and 43 seconds – the quickest goal for Morocco at the Africa Cup of Nations since Soufiane Alloudi scored against Namibia in 2008 in the first and fifth minute of the game – but Silas Katompa Mvumpa netted a deserved equaliser.

Morocco certainly rode their luck, with DR Congo’s Cédric Bakambu missing a first-half penalty.

Morocco 1-1 DR Congo xG stats

With four points, Morocco have already qualified for the last 16 but will want to ensure they finish top of Group F to give themselves the best possible draw.

Zambia vs Morocco Head-to-Head

This will be the third encounter between Zambia and Morocco at the Africa Cup of Nations. Both previous meetings came in the group stages: Morocco won 1-0 in 1986 before a draw in 1998 (1-1).

Zambia and Morocco’s last encounter was in the African Nations Championship in January 2021, with Morocco winning 3-1 in Cameroon.

Zambia vs Morocco Prediction

Zambia vs Morocco Prediction Opta

The Opta supercomputer makes Morocco strong favourites for this contest, giving them a 60.7% chance of taking all three points and finishing as Group F winners. Zambia are given a 18.5% chance of causing an upset, while the draw comes in at a 20.8% likelihood.

After Ivory Coast’s early stutters, Morocco have moved up into second place in our overall AFCON 2023 predictions. At the time of writing they have a 14.4% chance of lifting the trophy, behind favourites Senegal (17.9%).

The model thinks there is a 79.7% chance the Atlas Lions top their group, while it gives Zambia a 40.8% chance of qualifying for the knockout stage.

Below are each team’s current, up-to-date chances of progression through AFCON 2023 according to the Opta supercomputer:

Zambia vs Morocco Squads

Zambia: Toaster Nsabata, Lawrence Mulenga, Francis Mwansa, Stoppila Sunzu, Lubambo Musonda, Benson Sakala, Gift Mphande, Dominic Chanda, Tandi Mwape, Benedict Chepeshi, Frankie Musonda, Zephaniah Phiri, Emmanuel Banda, Roderick Kabwe, Kings Kangwa, Clatous Chama, Rally Bwalya, Lameck Banda, Frederick Mulambia, Kelvin Kampamba, Golden Mafwenta, Kelvin Kapumbu, Miguel Chaiwa, Fashion Sakala, Edward Chilufya, Patson Daka, Kennedy Musonda. 

Coach: Avram Grant 

Morocco: Munir Mohamedi, Yassine Bounou, Mehdi Benabid, Nayef Aguerd, Achraf Hakimi, Romain Saïss, Chadi Riad, Yahya Attiat-Allah, Abdel Abqar, Yunis Abdelhamid, Noussair Mazraoui, Mohamed Chibi, Sofyan Amrabat, Hakim Ziyech, Amir Richardson, Selim Amallah, Oussama El Azzouzi, Amine Harit, Azzedine Ounahi, Bilal El Khannouss, Sofiane Boufal, Youssef En-Nesyri, Abde Ezzalzouli, Ismael Saibari, Tarik Tissoudali, Amine Adli, Ayoub El Kaabi. 

Coach: Walid Regragui 

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