Look ahead to Wednesday’s London derby in the Premier League with our Tottenham vs Brentford prediction and preview. Will Ivan Toney build on his triumphant return to action?
Tottenham vs Brentford Stats: The Quick Hits
- Tottenham are favourites to maintain their push for a top-four finish on Wednesday, beating Brentford in 51.6% of the Opta supercomputer’s pre-match simulations.
- Spurs have lost their last two Premier League London derbies on home soil, against Chelsea (4-1) and West Ham (2-1). They’ve not lost three such matches in a row since April 2004.
- Brentford’s Ivan Toney scored on his return to Premier League action against Nottingham Forest last time out. However, he has alternated between not scoring (eight) and scoring (eight) in his last 16 league games, with his last four league goals coming at home.
Match Preview
It was as if Ivan Toney had never been away. Having served his eight-month suspension for breaching the Football Association’s gambling rules, Toney scored with a clever – if slightly contentious – free-kick on his return to action against Nottingham Forest last time out, helping Brentford halt a five-match losing streak to ease relegation fears; they’ll hope to carry the momentum from that win into Wednesday’s London derby at Tottenham.
Forest were less than pleased with the way Toney altered the position of the ball before whipping his free-kick into the bottom-right corner on Matchday 21, but that goal came at a crucial time for Brentford after they fell behind early on, and second-half strikes from Ben Mee and Neal Maupay ultimately handed them a 3-2 win.
They enter Matchday 22 six points clear of the relegation zone and hoping for another result that’ll get them climbing up the table. However, having previously gone unbeaten in 14 consecutive Premier League London derbies, they have lost their last two such matches against Arsenal (1-0) and Crystal Palace (3-1).
Toney will have a key role to play if Thomas Frank’s men are to spring a surprise at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, but he was not exactly prolific on the road prior to his suspension. Indeed, Toney’s last four Premier League goals have come at home, and he’s also alternated between scoring (eight times) and not scoring (eight) across his last 16 appearances in the competition.
With Bryan Mbeumo still sidelined, Toney will hope to form a potent strike partnership with Maupay in the coming weeks. The Frenchman has scored in three successive matches across all competitions for the first time since doing so for Brighton and Hove Albion in December 2021. He last achieved that feat for Brentford in April 2019 in the Championship, during his first spell with the club.
Brentford’s early FA Cup exit at the hands of Wolves means Frank has had additional time to prepare for Wednesday’s game, but he still has several selection issues to contend with. Aaron Hickey and Kevin Schade remain absent, while Christian Nørgaard is doubtful and loanee Sergio Reguilón is ineligible against his parent club.
Tottenham, meanwhile, are looking to bounce back from Friday’s FA Cup fourth round defeat to Manchester City, with Nathan Aké’s late goal ensuring Spurs’ trophy drought will extend to at least 17 years barring a miraculous Premier League title success.
Ange Postecoglou may now be highly unlikely to win silverware in his first campaign at the helm, but his side are in the mix for a top-four Premier League finish, having taken 13 points from their last six matches in the competition (four wins, one draw, one defeat).
Tottenham twice came from behind to earn a 2-2 draw at Manchester United in their last league outing, with Richarlison and Rodrigo Bentancur on target for Postecoglou’s men. With Son Heung-min still absent due to South Korea’s involvement at the AFC Asian Cup, Spurs will continue to look to Richarlison, who’s hit something of a purple patch.
The Brazilian has six goals in his last six Premier League games, as many as he managed in his previous 47. He tends to enjoy playing at home, too, with eight of his 10 overall goal involvements this season coming in his last seven outings at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium (five goals, three assists).
The striker should be confident of receiving good service on Wednesday as well with James Maddison potentially in line for his first start since November after making his return from an ankle injury against City. He has averaged 3.14 chances created per 90 minutes in the Premier League this season – among all players to have played a minimum of 270 minutes, only Wolves’ Pablo Sarabia (3.5, 746 minutes played) averages more.
Maddison’s return could allow Dejan Kulusevski to return to his usual right-wing role, from where the Swede has been a real livewire this season. He has created more chances following carries than any other player in the Premier League this term (19), although none of these have led to an assist.
Pape Sarr and Yves Bissouma are not yet back from Africa Cup of Nations duty, while Giovani Lo Celso is sidelined with a thigh injury and both Alejo Véliz and Manor Solomon are long-term absentees.
Tottenham vs Brentford Head-to-Head
Tottenham have lost just one of their last nine league games against Brentford (three wins, five draws), though that defeat did come in this exact fixture last season, the Bees triumphing 3-1.
The teams then played out a 2-2 draw on the opening day of this season at the Gtech Community Stadium, with Cristian Romero and Emerson Royal on target for Spurs in their first match under Postecoglou.
Indeed, draws have been a theme of this fixture lately. Brentford lost their first Premier League meeting with Tottenham in December 2021 but have since gone four unbeaten against them, drawing three of those matches.
Tottenham have lost their last two Premier League London derbies on home soil, going down 4-1 to Chelsea and 2-1 to West Ham. They last lost three successive home league meetings with fellow capital clubs in April 2004.
Recent Form
Spurs have won their last three home league games, beating Newcastle United, Everton and Bournemouth, with that run coming after they lost three in a row at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in November and December.
They will certainly be confident of causing Brentford problems, having scored in each of their last 33 Premier League games.
Only three teams have ever scored in more consecutive matches in the competition, with Arsenal having a 55-game run between 2001 and 2002, Manchester United enjoying a 36-game streak between 2007 and 2008, and Liverpool also netting in 36 straight between 2019 and 2020.
Brentford’s win over Forest last time out ended a five-game losing run in the Premier League for Frank’s men, but they have lost their last four on the road in the competition.
However, each of the Bees’ last four away league victories have come in London derbies, beating Fulham, Chelsea (twice) and Spurs going back as far as last April.
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system that assigns an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off on Wednesday, here are the Opta Power Rankings for both sides:
Tottenham vs Brentford Prediction
Tottenham are clear favourites to pick up three points on Wednesday, winning 51.6% of the 10,000 pre-match simulations conducted by the Opta supercomputer.
Brentford make it back-to-back wins in just 22.4% of scenarios, with the likelihood of a draw rated at 26%.
In the supercomputer’s season predictions, fifth (39.8%) is still seen as Spurs’ most likely finishing position, with Aston Villa preferred for top four. Postecoglou’s men got a top-four finish in 35.5% of the latest simulations, however, so they’re very much in the race.
Brentford, meanwhile, cut their chances of relegation to 2.9% with their win over Forest; 14th (19.9%) is their most common position across our projections.
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