We look ahead to this AFCON 2023 last-16 tie at the Amadou Gon Coulibaly Stadium in Korhogo with our Mali vs Burkina Faso prediction and preview.
Mali vs Burkina Faso: Pre-Match Facts
- The Opta supercomputer makes Mali the favourites to win this tie inside 90 minutes, with 46.3% of pre-match simulations seeing them win before extra time.
- This will be just the second meeting between Mali and Burkina Faso at the Africa Cup of Nations, with the previous one coming in January 2004 (a 3-1 win for Mali).
- Mali are looking to reach the quarter-finals at the Africa Cup of Nations for the first time since 2013 (finished third overall), after being eliminated and failing to score in each of their last two games in the round of 16 (against Ivory Coast in 2019 and on penalties to Equatorial Guinea in 2021).
- Burkina Faso have only lost one of their last seven games in the knockout stages at the Africa Cup of Nations (W3 D3), however they’ve been eliminated in three of the seven matches (twice via a penalty shootout).
- Mali have only suffered two defeats in their last 18 Africa Cup of Nations matches (W6 D10), while they’re unbeaten in their most recent seven (W3 D4), keeping five clean sheets in that run.
- Burkina Faso were beaten 2-0 by Angola last time out, ending a run of 16 consecutive matches in which they had scored at the Africa Cup of Nations. They attempted 20 shots in that match, with only Ivory Coast (22 vs Equatorial Guinea) having more in a game without scoring during this year’s group stage.
- No team conceded fewer goals than Mali in the group stage of this year’s Africa Cup of Nations (one – level with Senegal, Nigeria and Morocco), while goalkeeper Djigui Diarra has saved seven of the eight shots on target he’s faced in the current tournament (88%).
- Burkina Faso used 23 different players in the group stage – only Guinea-Bissau (24) used more.
- Two of Burkina Faso’s three goals in the group were scored by Bertrand Traoré, taking his tally to four goals at AFCON overall. The only Stallions player with more goals at AFCON is Alain Traoré (five, between 2012 and 2017).
Match Preview
Group E Winners Mali will look to continue their solid AFCON 2023 with further progression in this tie with Burkina Faso on Tuesday. Topping the group ahead of South Africa, Namibia and Tunisia, Mali conceded just once in their three games, while goalkeeper Djigui Diarra showed solid form as he saved seven of the eight shots on target he faced (88%).
Mali’s best finish was at the 1972 Nations Cup, when they finished second largely due to some stout defending. Focusing on defence over attack might be their best bet for success this time around, too.
Auxerre forward Lassine Sinayoko scored in Mali’s opening two group games versus South Africa and Tunisia but was kept out by Namibia on Matchday 3 despite having a higher expected goals (xG) total than any other player on the pitch (0.48). He’ll be a big threat to a Burkina Faso defence that was breached four times in their last two games versus Algeria and Angola in Group D.
The Stallions progressed to this stage of the competition after finishing as runners-up to Angola in the group stage, knocking out one of the pre-tournament favourites Algeria in the process. Two of their three group goals came via the experienced Bertrand Traoré, which takes his overall AFCON tournament tally to four goals – the only player with more in the competition for Burkina Faso is Alain Traoré, who scored five times between 2012 and 2017.
Mali vs Burkina Faso Head-to-Head
This will be just the second match between Burkina Faso and Mali at the Africa Cup of Nations. The previous match occurred at the 2004 edition, when Mali defeated Burkina Faso 3-1 in the second group match in Tunis.
Mali eventually went on to reach the semi-finals that year, before losing to Morocco 4-0. They finished in fourth place after a 2-1 play-off defeat to Nigeria.
Mali vs Burkina Faso Prediction
The Opta supercomputer saw Mali win this tie inside 90 minutes on 46.3% of the 10,000 pre-match simulations, compared to a 28.6% win rate by Burkina Faso.
Before a ball was kicked at AFCON 2023, the Opta supercomputer rated Mali and Burkina Faso as outsiders for the tournament, but with nations like Algeria, Tunisia and Ghana now out, their chances have increased as we enter the knockout stages.
Here are the current tournament projections for both Mali and Burkina Faso as things stand:
Mali vs Burkina Faso Squads
Mali: Djigui Diarra, Aboubacar Doumbia, Ismaël Diawara, Mamadou Fofana I, Kiki Kouyaté, Sikou Niakaté, Hamari Traoré, Amadou Danté, Falaye Sacko, Moussa Diarra, Lassana Coulibaly, Adama Traoré, Yves Bissouma, Amadou Haidara, Aliou Dieng, Diadié Samassékou, Kamory Doumbia, Boubacar Traoré, Mohamed Camara, Moussa Doumbia, Sékou Koïta, Fousseni Diabaté, Ibrahim Sissoko, Lassine Sinayoko, Siriné Doucouré, Youssoufou Niakaté, Nene Dorgeles.
Coach: Éric Chelle
Burkina Faso: Hervé Koffi, Hillel Konaté, Kilian Nikièma, Sébastien Tou, Edmond Tapsoba, Steeve Yago, Issoufou Dayo, Valentin Nouma, Abdoul Guiébré, Adamo Nagalo, Nasser Djiga, Issa Kaboré, Blati Touré, Bertrand Traoré, Gustavo Sangaré, Sacha Bansé, Mamady Bangré, Cédric Badolo, Ismahila Ouédraogo, Dramane Salou, Adama Guira, Djibril Ouattara, Mohamed Konaté, Abdoul Tapsoba, Aziz Ki, Hassane Bandé, Dango Ouattara.
Coach: Hubert Velud
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