Two sides whose 2023 AFCON campaigns got off to stuttering starts on Matchday 1 meet in a crucial Group B match on Thursday night. We look ahead to it with our Egypt vs Ghana prediction and preview.

Egypt vs Ghana: Pre-Match Facts

  • According to the Opta supercomputer, Egypt are predicted to get a much-needed win in this match, beating Ghana in 46.7% of the model’s pre-match simulations.
  • This will be the fifth encounter between Egypt and Ghana at the CAF Africa Cup of Nations. They have met three times previously in the group stages (one win each, one draw and two goals each) and once in the final, which Egypt won in 2010 (1-0).
  • Egypt have won their last two matches against Ghana at the Africa Cup of Nations (1-0 in the 2010 final, 1-0 in the 2017 group stages).
  • The four previous matches between Egypt and Ghana at the Africa Cup of Nations have produced only five goals.
  • Egypt have lost just one of their last 20 Africa Cup of Nations group stage matches (W14 D5), a 1-0 defeat to Nigeria in 2022. Following their 2-2 draw with Mozambique on MD 1, the Pharaohs will be looking to avoid failing to win either of their first two group games in a tournament since doing so in 1992, which included defeat to Ghana on MD 2.
  • Ghana suffered a 2-1 defeat to Cape Verde on MD 1. The Black Stars haven’t lost their first two matches in a tournament since 1984, losing to Nigeria and Algeria.
  • Egypt shipped two goals in their 2-2 draw with Mozambique, having only conceded two goals in a game in one of their previous 28 matches at the tournament, losing 2-1 to Cameroon in the 2017 final. They also conceded with both of the shots on target they faced against Mozambique, with 25% of their touches in the opposition box resulting in a goal (2/8).
  • Ghana are winless in their last five matches at the Africa Cup of Nations (D2 L3), their longest-ever winless run in the competition. They have lost their last two matches (3-2 vs Comoros in 2022, 2-1 vs Cape Verde on MD 1), never before losing three in a row at AFCON.
  • Four of Ghana’s last five goals at the Africa Cup of Nations have come via a set-piece (three corners, one free-kick), with the last two both scored by defender Alexander Djiku. The last Ghana player to score three consecutive goals for them at AFCON was Mubarak Wakaso in 2013.
  • Mohamed Salah’s first goal for Egypt at the Africa Cup of Nations came against Ghana in 2017 (1-0). In fact, he’s scored in his last two appearances against the Black Stars: in a FIFA World Cup qualifier in 2016 and at the 2017 AFCON.
  • Salah has scored seven goals at the Africa Cup of Nations for the Pharaohs in total, now behind only Hassan El-Shazly (12), Hossam Hassan (11) and Ahmed Hassan (8) in the list of leading Egyptian scorers in the competition. He also became the first Egyptian player to score at four different AFCON tournaments (2017, 2019, 2022, 2023), thanks to his late penalty against Mozambique on MD 1.

Match Preview

Matchday 2 in Group B kicks off with the two pre-tournament group favourites, Egypt and Ghana, in desperate need of a positive result after both sides failed to win their opening group matches.

Egypt led early on against Mozambique through Mostafa Mohamed – Egypt’s fastest goal in the Africa Cup of Nations since Ayman Mansour in 1994 against Gabon – but needed a stoppage-time penalty from captain Mohamed Salah to salvage a point. That came after Egypt had gone behind, with goals from Witi and Clésio putting Mozambique in front.

Remarkably, Egypt conceded more goals in this encounter than they had in their 11 previous AFCON group matches combined (one goal against Nigeria in 2022), while Mozambique scored 2+ goals in an AFCON game for just the second time in their history.

In truth, the Pharaohs deserved their point, and could maybe count themselves unfortunate they didn’t get all three. Egypt’s 21 shots at goal was the joint-most they’ve ever had in an AFCON match, while Mozambique scored with their only two shots on target, converting 25% of their touches in Egypt’s box into goals (2/8).

Egypt 2-2 Mozambique xG Stats

Still, their point means the Pharaohs will be looking to avoid failing to win either of their first two group games in a tournament since doing so in 1992, a tournament that included defeat to Ghana on MD 2.

Ghana’s AFCON 2023 campaign got off to terrible start with the Black Stars suffering a 2-1 defeat to Cape Verde on MD 1. It extended Ghana’s winless run at AFCON to five matches (D2 L3), their longest-ever winless run in the competition. Having lost their final game of the last edition of the tournament, they’re looking to avoid losing three AFCON games in a row for the first time in their history.

Although they came into the encounter against Cape Verde as pre-game favourites, Ghana were thoroughly outplayed. Cape Verde amassed 15 shots worth 3.0 expected goals, and Bubista’s side also enjoyed more of the ball.

Ghana 1-2 Cape Verde xG Stats

Chris Hughton’s men now have the lowest estimated probability of any side of progressing from Group B (47.4%), while Egypt are still in a strong position to do so (81.7%). A loss here for either side could be terminal to their chances of qualification.

Egypt vs Ghana Head-to-Head

This will be the fifth encounter between Egypt and Ghana at the Africa Cup of Nations. They have met three times previously in the group stage (one win each and one draw), and once in the final, which Egypt won in 2010 (1-0).

The last time the two met was in qualification for the 2018 FIFA World Cup. Drawn together in Group E, Egypt beat Ghana 2-0 at home before drawing 1-1 away on their way to qualifying for the finals.

Egypt vs Ghana Prediction

Egypt vs Ghana Prediction

According to the Opta supercomputer, it’s Egypt who are the favourites in this tie. They are given a 46.7% of beating Ghana (28.3%) in what is a crucial game for both sides. The draw occurred 25.0% of the time.

Both teams dropped in our overall tournament predictions after slow starts on MD 1. At the time of writing, Egypt are given a 6.3% chance of winning the title, down from 8.5% at the start of the tournament. Ghana, who were a 5.3% shot before a ball was kicked, are now given a slim 2.0% chance of going all the way.

Below are each team’s current, up-to-date chances of progression through AFCON 2023 according to the Opta supercomputer:

Egypt vs Ghana Squads

Egypt: Mohamed Abou Gabal, Mohamed Sobhi, Mohamed El Shenawy, Ahmed El Shenawy, Ahmed Samy, Ali Gabr, Mohamed Hany, Mohamed Hamdy, Yasser Ibrahim, Mohamed Abdelmonem, Omar Kamal, Ahmed Abou El Fotouh, Ahmed Hegazy, Trézéguet, Mohamed Elneny, Marwan Attia, Mahmoud Hamada, Hamdi Fathy, Emam Ashour, Mohanad Lasheen, Zizo, Mohamed Salah, Koka, Mostafa Fathi, Kahraba, Mostafa Mohamed, Omar Marmoush.

Coach: Rui Vitória

Ghana: Richard Ofori, Jojo Wollacott, Lawrence Ati Zigi, Daniel Amartey, Alidu Seidu, Fatawu Hamidu, Alexander Djiku, Gideon Mensah, Denis Odoi, Mohammed Salisu, Nicholas Opoku, Richmond Lamptey, Salis Abdul Samed, Majeed Ashimeru, Osman Bukari, Mohammed Kudus, Iddrisu Baba, Elisha Owusu, André Ayew, Jordan Ayew, Jonathan Sowah, Kingsley Schindler, Iñaki Williams, Ernest Nuamah, Ransford Königsdörffer, Antoine Semenyo, Joseph Paintsil.

Coach: Chris Hughton

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