For the first time since October, Burnley got to taste victory in the Premier League. Now they travel to Wolves, a side who have defeated both Man City and Tottenham this season. We look ahead with our data-powered Wolves vs Burnley prediction and preview.
Wolves vs Burnley Stats: The Quick Hits
- The Opta supercomputer predicts Wolves have a 42.5% chance of victory when they host Burnley (27.7%) at Molineux on Tuesday night.
- Wolves have both scored and conceded in each of their last 11 league games and have scored in each of their last 13 Premier League home games.
- Burnley are unbeaten in their last seven games against Wolves in the Premier League (D3 L4).
Match Preview
Burnley will come into this Tuesday clash full of confidence following a 5-0 demolition of Sheffield United that moved them off the bottom of the Premier League table. It was a win that represented the joint-largest margin of victory in the competition’s history by a team starting the day bottom of the table, and the biggest since Sheffield Wednesday’s 5-0 win against Bolton in November 1997.
The win ended Burnley’s run of nine consecutive defeats at Turf Moor in the Premier League, as they became the last of the 92 clubs in England’s top four tiers to win a home league match this season.
Vincent Kompany’s side produced a season-high 19 shots against Sheffield United, but it was their first effort from Jay Rodríguez after 15 seconds that put them on the pathway to success.
Prior to this game, Burnley had led for only 76 minutes all season in the Premier League, but further efforts from Jacob Bruun Larsen, Zeki Amdouni, Luca Koleosho and Josh Brownhill made it the first time the Clarets had five different goalscorers in a league game since January 2016 against MK Dons and, unsurprisingly, their first time ever in the Premier League (excluding own goals).
Burnley will be hoping to end some away day misery having lost their last three Premier League games away from Turf Moor. They last had a longer such run on the road in the division between November 2016 and February 2017 (seven).
Whilst Gary O’Neil’s side might have enjoyed highs against Manchester City and Spurs this season, Wolves recorded their seventh defeat of the campaign last time out against top of the table Arsenal.
Two early goals put the Midlands side on the back foot and although Matheus Cunha was able to find a response with four minutes to go, Wolves’ miserable run in London continued, winless in their last 13 trips to the capital (D3 L10) since a 2-0 win at Tottenham in February 2022.
Thankfully home comforts have been slightly better, with Wolves scoring in each of their last 13 Premier League home games (as well as 13 games overall), their longest such run since a run of 14 between April 2019 and January 2020. However, defensively, there are still some concerns, having failed to keep a clean sheet in each of their last seven in the league at Molineux.
There will be some concerns about José Sá’s fitness after being forced off in the first half with a back injury, although O’Neil believes the issue isn’t as serious as expected – Daniel Bentley will take his spot between the goalposts if he is unable to recover.
Rayan Aït-Nouri also missed out against Arsenal thanks to an ankle issue, but Mario Lemina and João Gomes have both served suspensions and should come back into the starting line-up.
Burnley will be without Jordan Beyer, after picking up his fifth caution of the season against Sheffield United, whilst Josh Cullen and Jack Cork are also expected to remain on the sidelines.
Hjalmar Ekdal came off the bench in the final stages of Saturday’s victory and could take a spot in the starting lineup, whilst Ameen Al-Dakhil, Connor Roberts, Hannes Delcroix, Manuel Benson and Anass Zaroury all hope to be part of the squad after missing out last time.
Wolves vs Burnley Head-to-Head
Wolves have not enjoyed taking on promoted sides in recent times. They are winless in their last five Premier League games against such opposition (D3 L2). It wasn’t always that way, though, with Wolves unbeaten in seven such games before this recent poor run of results (W3 D4).
It’s a similar story when looking at Wolves’ results against Burnley. They’d won their first three Premier League meetings against the Clarets between 2009 and 2018, but they are now winless in their last seven against them in the competition (D3 L4).
And when you include their matchups in the Championship, Burnley have lost just one of their last 12 league meetings with Wolves (W6 D5), keeping a clean sheet in each of their last three.
Recent Form
This Tuesday tussle could favour the hosts who have won seven of their 19 Premier League games played on that day of the week (D3 L9). It is Wolves highest win rate on a specific day in the competition (36.8%)
But Burnley also love a middle-of-the-week scrap. They’re unbeaten in their last 17 midweek (Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday) league games (W9 D8) since a 2-0 home loss to Leicester City in March 2022.
One player to keep an eye on is Hwang Hee-chan. The South Korean has scored five goals in his six Premier League home games for Wolves this season, with their 2-1 win against Spurs last time out the only time he’s failed to score at Molineux in the league this campaign. The last player to score more home league goals for the club in a single Premier League campaign was Raúl Jiménez in 2019-20 (eight).
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system that assigns an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of Tuesday’s kick-off, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides
Wolves vs Burnley Opta Player Ratings
The Opta Player Ratings are something we introduced ahead of the 2023-24 season. For a quick primer on how they’re calculated, you can check our explainer here.
Before kick-off in this match, here are the top five performing players from both teams in the 2023-24 Premier League according to the Opta Player Ratings:
Wolves
Hwang Hee-Chan: 71.3 (out of 100)
Pedro Neto: 68.7
Matheus Cunha: 66.6
Toti Gomes: 66.1
Craig Dawson: 65.6
Burnley
Jóhann Gudmundsson: 63.8 (out of 100)
Josh Cullen: 62.9
Zeki Amdouni: 61.8
Lyle Foster: 61.3
Josh Brownhill: 61.1
These Opta Player Ratings also power our set of brand-new, free-to-play gaming experiences, which you can play on Opta Analyst all season long.
Wolves vs Burnley Prediction
The Opta supercomputer believes Wolves will recover from back-to-back defeats and see off the threat of a resurgent Burnley on Tuesday, taking the three points in 42.5% of the 10,000 simulations conducted ahead of this game.
Hopes of a triumph for Vincent Kompany’s side are not hard to imagine, though. They have a 27.7% of taking the three points, while the draw comes in just shy of 30%.
Our latest season long Premier League predictions sees Wolves safely finishing the season in midtable, most likely in the 13th position they currently occupy (20.3%). Burnley’s victory did help their cause, although they still have a 78.5% chance of being relegated alongside Sheffield United (93.7%) and Luton Town (61.3%).
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