Each week throughout the 2023 NFL season, the supercomputer has something to say about every game. No matter if it’s a headliner like Eagles-Cowboys or yet another game this season complicated by backup quarterbacks, it unsentimentally beeps its way through the model’s NFL picks.
Week 14 kicks off Thursday with what is unsurprisingly projected to be the lowest-scoring game of the week as the Patriots visit the Steelers. The Patriots have lost three straight games while allowing 10 points or fewer, but Pittsburgh is the latest team moving to a backup quarterback with Mitch Trubisky taking over for the injured Kenny Pickett. The week ends with a Monday Night Football double feature as the Giants host the Packers and the Titans head to Miami. For those games and everything between, we’ve taken plenty of data and pumped it through our predictive model. Keep in mind that these percentages move throughout the week as player news shakes things up. You can always find the win percentages – pregame or live – on our season-long predictions page.
Once again, the Eagles are in the spotlight this week. According to our score predictions for Week 14, the highest-scoring game of the weekend will be the primetime meeting between the Cowboys and Eagles. It comes just over a month after the Eagles beat the Cowboys by five in Philadelphia. Our season-long projections have Philadelphia as the current Super Bowl favorite, but Dallas isn’t far back behind only Philly and San Francisco. This weekend, though, we like the home Cowboys and give them a 63.0% chance of winning on Sunday night to hand the Eagles their first losing streak since weeks 16-17 of last season after last week’s loss to the 49ers.
The Bills and Chiefs will be playing in Arrowhead Stadium for the fifth consecutive meeting, a streak that started with Kansas City’s AFC Championship Game win in January 2021. Patrick Mahomes and Co. have lost three of their last five games while Buffalo is 1-4 on the road this season. The model has the Chiefs getting back on track with 58.2% confidence.
No player has a higher projected fantasy points total in our model this weekend than Lamar Jackson at 24.3. Jackson has a completion percentage of 68.3% this season which would set a new career high. But even that’s not quite as high as the Ravens’ likelihood of winning at home against the Rams on Sunday (73.0%) to get Baltimore to 10-3 with a third straight win.
Both the Browns and Jaguars are coming off losses, and both teams will be relying on backup quarterbacks this week in Cleveland. Jacksonville is the only NFL team without a loss on the road this season, but we think their away winning streak will likely come to an end with the Browns on a 62.5% pregame win probability.
Two teams still in the thick of the AFC playoff race are the 7-5 Colts and the 6-6 Bengals, who – surprise, surprise – are both playing with No. 2 QBs. According to our weekly predictions, this is the only game in Week 14 where each team has better than a 45% chance of winning. We give Gardner Minshew and Indianapolis the slight edge on the road at 52.1%.
Here’s one more look at all 15 Week 14 NFL predictions, including an NFC West meeting between Brock Purdy’s streaking 49ers and Geno Smith’s skidding Seahawks:
NFL Week 14 Picks
Thursday night:
- Pittsburgh Steelers 71.4%, New England Patriots 28.6%
Sunday:
- Atlanta Falcons 57.6%, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 42.4%
- Baltimore Ravens 73.0%, Los Angeles Rams 27.0%
- Detroit Lions 58.1%, Chicago Bears 41.9%
- Indianapolis Colts 52.1%, Cincinnati Bengals 47.9%
- Cleveland Browns 62.5%, Jacksonville Jaguars 37.5%
- New Orleans Saints 67.3%, Carolina Panthers 32.7%
- Houston Texans 59.6%, New York Jets 40.4%
- Minnesota Vikings 58.1%, Las Vegas Raiders 41.9%
- San Francisco 49ers 80.7%, Seattle Seahawks 19.3%
- Kansas City Chiefs 58.2%, Buffalo Bills 41.8%
- Los Angeles Chargers 57.6%, Denver Broncos 42.4%
Sunday night:
- Dallas Cowboys 63.0%, Philadelphia Eagles 37.0%
Monday night:
- Miami Dolphins 85.5%, Tennessee Titans 14.5%
- Green Bay Packers 65.6%, New York Giants 34.4%
Week 14 byes:
- Arizona Cardinals
- Washington Commanders
If fantasy football is more your thing, check out our weekly fantasy projections and rankings, then use our sit/start comparison tool to help with lineup decisions.
We’ll be back next week for Cowboys-Bills, Ravens-Jaguars and anything else that piques your curiosity. The supercomputer has no favorites. It just picks them.