After finishing on the wrong side of a six-goal thriller on Thursday, Ange Postecoglou’s side face the Premier League’s form team. We look ahead to Sunday’s game with our Tottenham vs Bournemouth prediction and preview.
Tottenham vs Bournemouth Stats: The Quick Hits
- Tottenham are predicted to return to winning ways on Sunday, overcoming Bournemouth in 65.9% of the Opta supercomputer’s pre-match simulations.
- Spurs have scored 32 goals in their 13 Premier League meetings with Bournemouth, boasting a higher goals-per-game ratio versus the Cherries (2.5) than against any other team they have faced at least 10 times in the competition.
- Dominic Solanke already has 12 Premier League goals this season, netting eight times in his last seven matches. Only Joshua King (16 in 2016-17) and Callum Wilson (14 in 2018-19) have ever scored more for Bournemouth in a single campaign.
Match Preview
Having failed to oversee a victory in his first nine Premier League games in charge of Bournemouth, Andoni Iraola was reportedly on the brink of being sacked before they beat Burnley 2-1 on 28 October. From that weekend onwards, no team in the division has won more games (seven) or collected more points (22) than the Cherries, who should approach Sunday’s trip to the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium confident of giving their fans something to celebrate on New Year’s Eve.
Following their 3-0 rout of Fulham on Boxing Day, Bournemouth have won six of their last seven Premier League games, drawing the other and scoring at least two goals in each match. This is their longest run of consecutive games with multiple goals in the competition, while they now have the chance to post five top-flight wins in a row for the very first time.
Justin Kluivert and Luis Sinisterra joined Dominic Solanke on the scoresheet at the Vitality Stadium last time out, with Solanke converting a penalty to reach 12 Premier League goals for the season. Only Joshua King (16 in 2016-17) and Callum Wilson (14 in 2018-19) have scored more for Bournemouth in a single campaign in the competition.
Solanke has now scored eight goals in his last seven league outings, and the former Chelsea and Liverpool striker could become just the second Bournemouth player to score in four successive matches in the Premier League on Sunday, after Wilson did so in September 2019.
Solanke should again be supported by in-form widemen Antoine Semenyo and Marcus Tavernier, the latter of whom leads all Bournemouth players for assists (three) and chance-creating carries (19) this season.
Iraola does not have any new injury concerns ahead of Sunday’s match, though Hamed Traorè is out with malaria, while Milos Kerkez and Lewis Cook are unlikely to return to action until January. Lloyd Kelly is still doubtful after missing a month with a thigh injury, so Dango Ouattara may deputise at left-back again.
Bournemouth have enjoyed two additional days of preparation ahead of Sunday’s game, and Iraola will no doubt have been an interested viewer as Tottenham fell to a 4-2 defeat at Brighton and Hove Albion on Thursday, missing the chance to leapfrog Manchester City into fourth place.
With Cristian Romero and Micky van de Ven both sidelined, it was another troubling defensive performance from Ange Postecoglou’s side, who went 4-0 down thanks to powerful strikes from Pervis Estupiñán and Jack Hinshelwood, as well as two João Pedro penalties. Goals from Alejo Véliz and Ben Davies teed up a riveting finish, but Spurs missed several good chances in a lengthy period of stoppage time as they fell to a fifth defeat in their last nine league games (three wins, one draw).
Since the start of November, Tottenham have conceded more goals (19) and allowed their opponents more expected goals (21.4 xG) than any other Premier League side. Only Luton Town (159), Manchester United (153) and West Ham (138) have faced more shots than Spurs (134) during that period, and Postecoglou will have to navigate at least one more game with a makeshift backline before targeting defensive reinforcements in the transfer window.
Despite their defensive crisis, Tottenham remain one of the Premier League’s best attacking outfits, with Richarlison’s return to form a welcome sight for Postecoglou. The Brazilian failed to score and only recorded two assists in his first 14 home league games for the club, but he now has seven goal involvements in his last six (four goals, three assists).
While he should keep his place alongside Son Heung-min and Brennan Johnson, Spurs must find an alternate source of creativity behind their front three. Dejan Kulusevski leads all Premier League players for open-play chances created per 90 minutes this season (2.4), but he will serve a one-match ban after receiving his fifth yellow card of the campaign on Thursday.
Tottenham vs Bournemouth Head-to-Head
Tottenham have won nine of their 13 previous Premier League meetings with Bournemouth (two draws, two losses), winning 2-0 in the return fixture on the south coast in August, with James Maddison and Kulusevski on target.
Spurs have scored 32 goals in those matches, meaning they boast a higher goals-per-game ratio (2.5) against Bournemouth than against any other side they faced at least 10 times in the Premier League.
Bournemouth did win this exact fixture last season, however, triumphing 3-2 under Gary O’Neil in April, with Ouattara netting a 95th-minute winner after Arnaut Danjuma had appeared to have salvaged a point for Spurs.
Recent Form
Bournemouth have dropped just two points in their last seven matches across the Premier League. They have beaten Newcastle, Sheffield United, Crystal Palace, Manchester United, Nottingham Forest and Fulham since 11 November. Even the game they drew only saw top-four contenders Aston Villa equalise deep into added time in a 2-2 draw.
Since MD 12, no side have won more points than Bournemouth in the Premier League (19), and they have played one game fewer than their rivals following the abandonment of the Luton fixture.
Tottenham have won their last two home games, overcoming Newcastle United (4-1) and Everton (2-1) on their own turf after losing their previous three games at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium.
While results have fluctuated, Spurs’ season ticket holders have certainly been entertained this year. After failing to score in their first two home Premier League matches of 2023, Tottenham have netted in each of their last 18.
However, they have conceded three or more goals in three separate games at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium this year, while only scoring three or more on two occasions themselves.
Neither team have a habit of finishing years on a high note, with Bournemouth losing their final league game in four of the last five calendar years (one win), being beaten 2-0 by Crystal Palace on New Year’s Eve in 2022.
This will be Tottenham’s first outing on New Year’s Eve since 2011, when they drew 1-1 with Swansea City. They have failed to win their final league game in each of the last five calendar years, with each of their last four finishing level.
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system that assigns an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off in this game, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
Tottenham vs Bournemouth Opta Player Ratings
The Opta Player Ratings are something we introduced ahead of 2023-24. For a quick primer on how they’re calculated, you can check our explainer here.
Before kick-off in this match, here are the top five performing players from both teams in the 2023-24 Premier League according to the Opta Player Ratings:
Tottenham Hotspur
Son Heung-Min: 84.2 (out of 100)
James Maddison: 75.6
Dejan Kulusevski: 73.4
Pape Sarr: 70.9
Micky van de Ven: 69.4
Bournemouth
Dominic Solanke: 72.5 (out of 100)
Neto: 64.3
Marcos Senesi: 64.0
Marcus Tavernier: 63.5
Antoine Semenyo: 62.8
Tottenham vs Bournemouth Prediction
Depending on other results across Matchday 20, Bournemouth could climb into the top half of the table with a victory. However, the Opta supercomputer is forecasting an end to their fine run of form.
Of 10,000 match simulations conducted ahead of kick-off, Tottenham won 65.9%. Only Man City (85.8% at home to Sheffield United) are assigned a higher win probability ahead of this weekend’s slate of fixtures.
Bournemouth are given a 13.1% chance of victory, with the likelihood of a draw rated at 21%.
Tottenham’s defeat to Brighton came as a blow to their hopes of a top-four finish, which they now accomplish in just 30.5% of the supercomputer’s season simulations, finishing fifth in a league-high 34.5% of scenarios.
Bournemouth, meanwhile, have seemingly left any worries of a relegation battle behind, with their chances of the drop now rated at a mere 0.2%. Eleventh (19.4%) is their most common position across our season projections.
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