We look ahead to Tuesday night’s Premier League action at Kenilworth Road with our Luton vs Arsenal prediction and preview. Can the table-topping Gunners maintain their momentum?
Luton vs Arsenal Stats: The Quick Hits
- The Opta supercomputer is predicting a fourth straight Premier League win for leaders Arsenal on Tuesday, giving them a 56.1% chance of beating Luton Town.
- No side has kept more away clean sheets (four) or conceded fewer goals on the road (three) in the Premier League this season than Arsenal. Luton, however, have scored in all but one of their league games at Kenilworth Road this campaign.
- Bukayo Saka could make his 200th appearance for Arsenal in all competitions, becoming the second youngest English player to ever reach that milestone, after Cliff Bastin.
Match Preview
It may have been a little too close for comfort in the closing minutes, but Arsenal consolidated their position as Premier League leaders with a 2-1 win over Wolverhampton Wanderers on Saturday, their fifth victory in a row in all competitions. It’s a quick turnaround for the Gunners now as they become the latest English top-flight giant to visit Kenilworth Road, looking to maintain their momentum against Luton Town on Tuesday.
The hosts made a blistering start to go 2-0 up within 13 minutes on Saturday versus Wolves, with Bukayo Saka and Martin Ødegaard capping two flowing team moves with pinpoint finishes. Saka’s opener was Arsenal’s 100th goal across all competitions in 2023, making them the fifth team from Europe’s big five leagues to net a century this calendar year, after Man City, Real Madrid, Bayern Munich and Bayer Leverkusen.
With their weekend’s work done, Arsenal were then able to put their feet up as Manchester City played out a chaotic 3-3 draw with Tottenham Hotspur on Sunday, while Liverpool won a seven-goal thriller against Fulham, as the Gunners ended Matchday 14 two points clear at the summit.
Mikel Arteta was, however, left frustrated by a series of missed chances that allowed Wolves to stay in Saturday’s game, with his team forced to survive a tense finale after Oleksandr Zinchenko’s mistake allowed Matheus Cunha to make it 2-1.
Arsenal have not hit the heights of last season in attack thus far, but Arteta was pleased with their disciplined defending last time out, and they have faced the fewest shots on target (35) and expected goals (11.27 xG) of any Premier League side in 2023-24.
On the road, no team has kept more clean sheets (four) or conceded fewer goals (three) than Arsenal in the Premier League this campaign, with three of their four away wins – against Crystal Palace, Everton and Brentford – coming by 1-0 scorelines.
Takehiro Tomiyasu’s return to the lineup has helped Arsenal defensively, but he is doubtful for Tuesday’s game after limping off late on Saturday and could be replaced by Ben White. Defender Jurriën Timber as well as midfield trio Thomas Partey, Fabio Vieira and Emile Smith Rowe are the Gunners’ confirmed absentees. David Raya is expected to continue in goal, with Aaron Ramsdale on the bench.
In attack, Saka could make his 200th appearance for the club in all competitions. At the age of 22 years and 91 days, he would be the second youngest Englishman to reach that milestone for Arsenal after Cliff Bastin (22 years, 16 days) and the youngest player overall since Cesc Fàbregas in 2008 (21 years, 118 days).
Saka’s 10 goal involvements in the Premier League this season (five goals, five assists) are twice as many as any other Arsenal player (Ødegaard and Eddie Nketiah have five), and each of the winger’s last nine league goal contributions have either drawn Arsenal level (two) or put them ahead (seven).
Luton, meanwhile, are looking to respond to Saturday’s 3-1 defeat at Brentford, with results elsewhere seeing their cushion to the relegation zone cut to two points as Everton and Burnley picked up much-needed victories.
Rob Edwards’ side faced 27 shots in London this weekend, the most Brentford have ever managed in a Premier League game. Jacob Brown’s left-footed finish briefly put the Hatters in contention, but they ultimately suffered a deserved loss as Neal Maupay, Ben Mee and Shandon Baptiste struck for the Bees.
Brown was also on target when Luton clinched their first Premier League victory at Kenilworth Road one week earlier, joining Teden Mengi in netting in a 2-1 win over Crystal Palace. He last scored in three consecutive league appearances in April 2019, with Barnsley in League One.
While Luton have lost three of their six Premier League games at Kenilworth Road (one win, two draws), conceding in each match, they have caused opponents problems at the throwback ground, with October’s 1-0 loss to Tottenham the only home game in which they haven’t scored this term.
Edwards has a few selection concerns ahead of Tuesday, with Alfie Doughty, Marvelous Nakamba and Cauley Woodrow unlikely to recover in time to face Arsenal. Defenders Mengi and Tom Lockyer will be assessed after being substituted with knocks on Saturday.
Luton Town vs Arsenal Head-to-Head
Tuesday’s game will be the first between Luton and Arsenal in any competition since December 1991, when the Hatters claimed a 1-0 top-flight victory at Kenilworth Road in the old Division One.
Not that it’s reflective of the current stature of both clubs, Arsenal are actually winless in their last 10 trips to Luton across all competitions. They’ve recorded six draws and four defeats since managing a 2-1 league victory under Don Howe in January 1984.
This fixture has cup history, too. Luton won their only major honour with their 1988 Football League Cup final victory over Arsenal at Wembley Stadium, winning 3-2 after being 2-1 down with eight minutes remaining – Brian Stein the hero with a last-minute winner in front of 95,732 fans on 24 April 1988.
This match will, of course, represent the first Premier League meeting between the clubs, and Arsenal have won six of their last seven games when facing a team for the first time in the competition. The only exception in that run came in the Gunners’ last such match as they were beaten 2-0 at Brentford on the opening matchday of the 2021-22 campaign.
For Luton’s fans, the visit of the Premier League leaders will be a real occasion to savour, but the Hatters have only won one of their last 14 top-flight games against teams starting the day at the summit (four draws, nine defeats).
Their only victory in that sequence came by a 3-1 scoreline against Liverpool in February 1991, though this will be their first such match since a 1-1 draw with Manchester United in April 1992.
Recent Form
While Arsenal are chasing a fourth successive Premier League victory since last tasting defeat against Newcastle on 4 November. They have beaten Burnley, Brentford and Wolves in league competition since then, in addition to UEFA Champions League victories over both Sevilla and Lens at the Emirates Stadium.
Luton have only won one of their last eight league matches (two draws, five losses). The Hatters have, however, avoided defeat in their last two at Kenilworth Road (one win, one draw).
They will hope to preserve their strong record in games played on Tuesdays, having only lost three of their last 22 such contests in league action (11 wins, eight draws). However, one of those defeats did come in their only previous Premier League game to be played on a Tuesday, losing 2-1 at home to Burnley in October.
Arsenal, meanwhile, have won 55.7% of their Premier League games played between Fridays and Mondays, compared to just 48% of those played between Tuesdays and Thursdays. Luton will be hoping the Gunners endure another awkward evening on their short midweek trip to Bedfordshire.
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system that assigns an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off on Tuesday, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides
Luton vs Arsenal Opta Player Ratings
The Opta Player Ratings are something we introduced ahead of 2023-24. For a quick primer on how they’re calculated, you can check our explainer here.
Before kick-off in this match, here are the top five performing players from both teams in the 2023-24 Premier League according to the Opta Player Ratings:
Luton
Thomas Kaminski: 65.0 (out of 100)
Tahith Chong: 61.9
Chiedozie Ogbene: 60.6
Alfie Doughty: 60.1
Gabriel Osho: 59.4
Arsenal
Declan Rice: 80.6 (out of 100)
Oleksandr Zinchenko: 80.4
Martin Ødegaard: 75.3
Bukayo Saka: 75.3
Ben White: 74.6
These Opta Player Ratings also power our set of brand-new, free-to-play gaming experiences, which you can play on Opta Analyst all season long.
Luton vs Arsenal Prediction
With their title rivals not in action until Wednesday, Arsenal have a chance to move – at least temporarily – five points clear at the summit of the Premier League table on Tuesday.
The Opta supercomputer fancies their chances of doing exactly that. Of 10,000 match simulations conducted ahead of kick-off, Arsenal won 56.1%, Luton won 18.8%, and 25.1% finished level.
According to the supercomputer’s season predictions, Arsenal were major beneficiaries of Man City’s draw with Spurs. Their chances of ending 2023-24 top of the Premier League table are now up to 15.5%, though City (67.3%) and Liverpool (15.9%) are still more fancied.
Luton, meanwhile, saw several fellow relegation candidates pick up results on Matchday 14. They drop to the Championship in 61.3% of our simulations, with only Sheffield United (93.7%) and Burnley (78.5%) at greater risk of the drop.
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