Having celebrated Christmas with victory at Turf Moor, Jürgen Klopp’s Premier League title chasers welcome Eddie Howe’s Magpies to Anfield on New Year’s Day. Here is our Liverpool vs Newcastle United prediction and preview.
Liverpool vs Newcastle Stats: The Quick Hits
- The Opta supercomputer predicts a Liverpool win at Anfield, with the hosts beating Newcastle United in 57.7% of simulations.
- Newcastle have won none of their last 27 Premier League away games against Liverpool.
- Mohamed Salah’s next Premier League goal will be his 150th for Liverpool, making him the fifth player to reach the milestone with a single club in the competition.
Match Preview
Eddie Howe will be hoping Newcastle United can banish their away-day demons when his struggling travellers head to face Premier League title contenders Liverpool at Anfield for the first English top-flight game of 2024 on Monday.
Newcastle were haunted by a ghost of Christmas past on Boxing Day as former striker Chris Wood scored an impressive hat-trick to power Nottingham Forest to an unlikely 3-1 victory at St. James’ Park. Alexander Isak’s 23rd-minute opener from the penalty spot ultimately proved irrelevant as Newcastle conceded three goals to slump to a disappointing defeat. Howe’s men have also won just one of their last 11 away games – a record-breaking 8-0 hammering of Sheffield United back in October – and a poor run of form has seen Howe’s side slip down to ninth in the league table heading into Matchday 20.
Already out of the UEFA Champions League and eliminated by Chelsea in the EFL Cup quarter-finals, Howe must find a method to overcome a challenging period for the Magpies, who have been hampered by injuries. Goalkeeper Nick Pope, Harvey Barnes, Joe Willock, Jacob Murphy, Elliot Anderson and Matt Targett are all sidelined still, while Sandro Tonali remains suspended due to his gambling-related ban.
It is an entirely different story for Liverpool, who continue to go blow-for-blow with Arsenal at the Premier League summit – the league-leading Reds sit two points ahead of the Gunners after MD 19 when Mikel Arteta’s side fell to a surprise 2-0 loss at home to West Ham United on Thursday. Jürgen Klopp’s men were comfortable 2-0 winners over Burnley at Turf Moor on Tuesday as Darwin Núñez and the fit-again Diogo Jota were on target against Vincent Kompany’s relegation-threatened hosts. Heading into the weekend’s fixtures, the Anfield club are three points clear of third-placed Aston Villa, five ahead of Manchester City – who have a game in hand – in fourth and six clear of Tottenham Hotspur.
An early-season title charge has been somewhat stalled by injuries, suggesting Liverpool can still strengthen both with their current squad and in the January transfer window. Klopp remains without Andy Robertson, Thiago Alcântara, Joël Matip, Stefan Bajcetic and Kostas Tsimikas – the latter having suffered a broken collarbone in the 1-1 draw with fellow title contenders Arsenal on 23 December – though there is hope Alexis Mac Allister will return from a troublesome knee issue for Monday’s kick-off.
Jota, Núñez and Luís Diaz will fight for two spots in Liverpool’s attack to partner Mohamed Salah, whose next Premier League goal will be his 150th for Liverpool, making him the fifth player to reach the milestone with a single club in the competition, along with Harry Kane (Spurs), Sergio Agüero (Man City), Wayne Rooney (Man Utd) and Thierry Henry (Arsenal).
Former Chelsea and Roma forward Salah has scored in five of his six league appearances against Newcastle at Anfield, although the visitors have firepower of their own. Callum Wilson averages a Premier League goal every 135 minutes for Howe’s side, while teammate Isak averages one every 138 minutes – only Andrew Cole (121) has a better minutes-per-goal rate for the Magpies in the competition.
Liverpool vs Newcastle Head-to-Head
Liverpool have won their last five Premier League games against Newcastle and are unbeaten in 14 against them since a 2-0 loss in December 2015 (W10 D4).
Newcastle’s Anfield record is much worse, too, with the Magpies winless in their last 27 Premier League away games against Liverpool (D5 L22) since winning on their first-ever visit – 2-0 in April 1994. Only Everton (28 at Chelsea, ongoing) have endured a longer winless away run against an opponent in the competition.
There should be no concern for the home side about falling behind either, considering Liverpool have won 10 Premier League games against Newcastle despite conceding the first goal. No side has beaten another more times having conceded first in the competition’s history.
That run includes a 2-1 win at St. James’ Park in the reverse fixture this season thanks to a Darwin Núñez double after Virgil van Dijk’s 28th-minute dismissal. Anthony Gordon scored the opener in the August meeting but the last Newcastle player to score home and away Premier League goals against Liverpool in the same campaign was Alan Shearer way back in 1999-00.
Recent Form
Newcastle’s away form has been woeful, with Howe’s side winning just one of their last 11 Premier League away games (D4 L6), losing each of the last four in a row – against Luton Town, Tottenham Hotspur, Everton and Bournemouth. They last lost more consecutively on the road in December/January in 2020-21 (five).
In complete contrast to their struggling visitors, Liverpool have lost just one of their last 51 Premier League home games and are unbeaten in 21 at Anfield (W16 D5) since a 2-1 loss to Leeds United in October 2022. However, they’ve failed to win their last two home league games, with both of those coming against sides to finish in last season’s top four (0-0 v Man Utd, 1-1 v Arsenal).
Both sides seem to suffer from a Christmas hangover into the New Year, though. Liverpool have failed to win their first league game in any of the last three calendar years (D1 L2), going down 3-1 at Brentford in January 2023.
Meanwhile, Newcastle have won their first league game in just one of the last 11 calendar years (D3 L7), winning 1-0 at Stoke City in 2018. However, they’ve never lost against Liverpool on New Year’s Day, drawing 0-0 in 1913, before winning 9-2 in 1934 and 1-0 in 2003.
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system that assigns an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off this weekend, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
Liverpool vs Newcastle Opta Player Ratings
The Opta Player Ratings are something we introduced ahead of 2023-24. For a quick primer on how they’re calculated, you can check our explainer here.
Before kick-off in this match, here are the top five performing players from both teams in the 2023-24 Premier League according to the Opta Player Ratings:
Liverpool
Alisson: 76.7 (out of 100)
Mo Salah: 76.3
Trent Alexander-Arnold: 76.2
Virgil van Dijk: 75.9
Dominik Szoboszlai: 73.5
Newcastle
Bruno Guimarães: 74.5 (out of 100)
Kieran Trippier: 73.7
Anthony Gordon: 72.7
Alexander Isak: 70.0
Callum Wilson: 69.2
Liverpool vs Newcastle Prediction
Owing to a strong head-to-head record and recent form, the Opta supercomputer predicts Liverpool as the winners of this clash, with the host beating Newcastle in 57.7% of simulations.
Howe’s visitors triumphed in just 17.6% of 10,000 data-powered scenarios, while the draw occurred in 24.7%.
Manchester City remain the favourites to defend their title, winning the league in 55.1% of our season simulations, compared to Liverpool’s 27.3% and Arsenal’s 15.3% chance – the latter’s hopes crashing down after the West Ham defeat.
Meanwhile, Newcastle’s top-four ambitions have dropped to just 1.8% following their recent struggles, with their most likely league-table finish said to be eighth – one place higher than their current position. They came eighth in 19.5% of the supercomputer’s simulations.
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