Two teams who come into this clash on the back of impressive weekend wins; it’s our Everton vs Newcastle prediction and preview.
Everton vs Newcastle: The Quick Hits
- The Opta supercomputer predicts Newcastle United will come away from Goodison Park with the win, being given a 41.4% chance of doing so.
- Eddie Howe’s side have only won one of their last eight games away from home in the Premier League, though.
- Everton have won just once at Goodison Park in the league this season, and haven’t beaten anyone other than Bournemouth there since 11 March.
Match Preview
It has already been a rollercoaster of a season for Everton. It started with them picking up just one point from their first five games, before form started to pick up.
Then, they were hit with a 10-point deduction for breaking the Premier League’s Profitability and Sustainability Rules, before losing 3-0 at home to Manchester United as the dark clouds threatened to return to Goodison Park. A 1-0 win at Nottingham Forest on Saturday will have raised spirits, though, and Sean Dyche’s men will be keen to win back-to-back league games for the first time since September/October 2022.
They host a Newcastle United side also coming off the back of a morale-boosting win, following up their frustration at drawing late on with Paris Saint-Germain in the UEFA Champions League by beating Manchester United 1-0 at St James’ Park on Saturday thanks to a goal from former Everton attacker Anthony Gordon.
The Toffees have been excellent on the road in recent times, winning five of their last six away games in all competitions (L1), but they must start to improve their home form soon. Having won three of their first four Premier League home games under Dyche (L1), Everton have won just two of their last 12 at Goodison Park (D2 L8), with both of those victories coming against Bournemouth.
Everton have failed to find the net in four Premier League home games this season, with no other team doing so as often at home, while all eight of their goals at Goodison Park in all competitions have been scored by different players.
Not accounting for their 10-point deduction, only 23.5% of Everton’s points this season have come from home games (4 of 17). It’s quite a contrast with last season, when 58.3% of their points came at Goodison (21 of 36).
The fact this game is a midweek fixture is also not good news for Everton. They have lost their last four midweek (Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday) Premier League matches, conceding four goals in each of the last three. On top of that, their last midweek game was a 4-1 home defeat to Newcastle in April.
By contrast, Newcastle have won their last three midweek Premier League matches by an aggregate score of 13-3.
Eddie Howe’s side haven’t had much luck on the road this season, though. They looked to have figured out how to win away from home when they thrashed Sheffield United 8-0 at Bramall Lane in September, but that’s their only win on the road in their last eight in the top flight (D4 L3). They have conceded twice in each of their last three away games, last doing so in four on the bounce between April and August 2015.
Despite their points deduction, Everton could claw their way back out of the relegation zone with a win after Luton Town’s defeat to Arsenal on Tuesday. They will still be without Dele Alli while Amadou Onana has not played since the international break due to a calf problem. André Gomes is close to a return after stepping up his recovery with just over 60 minutes for Everton’s Under-21s against Southampton on Monday. Dominic Calvert-Lewin is a minor doubt after missing the win at the City Ground.
For the visitors’ team news, Howe is hopeful Gordon will be fit to face his former club after being taken off against Man Utd with a hip issue. The last thing Newcastle need is more absences, with Nick Pope now facing an extended spell on the sidelines after dislocating his shoulder at the weekend. Martin Dubravka will likely deputise in the meantime, while Sean Longstaff, Joe Willock, Harvey Barnes, Callum Wilson, Dan Burn, Matt Targett, Javier Manquillo, Jacob Murphy, Elliot Anderson, Sven Botman and Sandro Tonali all miss out again.
Not having Wilson is a particular blow for the Magpies. The England striker has scored eight goals in his last eight Premier League away games and has also hit four braces against Everton in the competition (including in each of his last two away games against them). Only Harry Kane (six) and Alan Shearer (five) have scored multiple goals against the Toffees more often in the Premier League.
Everton vs Newcastle Opta Player Ratings
The Opta Player Ratings are something we introduced ahead of 2023-24. For a quick primer on how they’re calculated, you can check our explainer here.
Before kick-off in this match, here are the top five performing players from both teams in the 2023-24 Premier League according to the Opta Player Ratings:
Everton
Vitalii Mykolenko: 68.5 (out of 100)
James Tarkowski: 66.5
Idrissa Gueye: 65.5
James Garner: 64.7
Amadou Onana: 63.3
Newcastle
Kieran Trippier: 81.7 (out of 100)
Anthony Gordon: 78.3
Alexander Isak: 75.5
Bruno Guimarães: 73.1
Callum Wilson: 71.2
These Opta Player Ratings also power our set of brand-new, free-to-play gaming experiences, which you can play on Opta Analyst all season long.
Everton vs Newcastle: Head-to-Head
Everton have lost five of their last six Premier League games against Newcastle (W1), as many as they had in their previous 24 against them (W13 D6).
Newcastle did the double over the Toffees last season, winning 1-0 at St James’ Park in October 2022 and securing a big 4-1 win at Goodison Park in April. They are looking to secure back-to-back away league victories against Everton for the first time since a run of three between 1958 and 1960.
Wilson struck twice for Newcastle in that last meeting, with Joelinton and Murphy adding the other goals as the visitors strolled to victory. Dwight McNeil pulled back a late goal for the hosts, scoring direct from a corner.
Recent Form
Everton have opened the scoring in four of their last five Premier League matches and have yet to lose when scoring first in the competition under Dyche (W10 D4).
They have won every other game recently, with their last 10 games in the Premier League going lose, win, lose, win, lose, win, draw, win, lose, win. That doesn’t bode well for the hosts ahead of this game, then.
The last time Everton beat a team other than Bournemouth at Goodison Park in the league was Brentford on 11 March.
Newcastle have only won one of their eight away games in the Premier League since that 4-1 win at Goodison Park last season (D4 L3), though that was the 8-0 hammering of Sheffield United, which no doubt played a part in Paul Heckingbottom’s eventual sacking.
The visitors come into this one on the back of two impressive league wins over Chelsea and Man Utd, with the hard-fought albeit frustrating draw with PSG at the Parc des Princes in between.
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system that assigns an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off on Thursday, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
Everton vs Newcastle Prediction
The Opta supercomputer thinks Newcastle will secure an away win as they look to muscle their way back into the top four. Howe’s men won 41.4% of the 10,000 simulations carried out by the supercomputer.
The chances of an Everton win or a draw are almost identical, with Dyche’s side securing all three points 29.4% of the time, with 29.2% of clashes ending all square.
In terms of their season prospects, despite their points deduction, the supercomputer is still pretty confident Everton will stay up. They do get relegated in 33.2% of simulations, but that is still well below Sheffield United (94.1%), Burnley (78.7%) and Luton Town (62.8%). Their likeliest finish is 17th place.
Newcastle finish in the top four again in 41.9% of simulations, with the supercomputer believing they will indeed pip Aston Villa (37.1%) and Tottenham (21.5%).
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