A huge London derby at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium rounds off Matchday 11 in the Premier League. We look ahead to Monday’s game with our Tottenham vs Chelsea prediction and preview.
Tottenham vs Chelsea: Quick Hits
- Tottenham are predicted to maintain their unbeaten start to life under Ange Postecoglou, with the Opta supercomputer giving them a 42.5% chance of beating Chelsea (29%).
- Mauricio Pochettino will become the fifth former Spurs boss to face them in a Premier League match, after Martin Jol, Chris Hughton, Harry Redknapp and Tim Sherwood. Three of the previous four have managed at least one win against their old club.
- Postecoglou could become just the third manager to go unbeaten through his first 11 games as a Premier League boss, after Frank Clark (11) in 1994 and Maurizio Sarri (12) in 2018.
Match Preview
Having led Tottenham to four successive top-four Premier League finishes and the 2019 UEFA Champions League final, Mauricio Pochettino was surely the most beloved coach in Spurs’ modern history. On Monday, he will go up against a man with his own designs on such adulation, as Chelsea face Ange Postecoglou’s revitalised side in a huge London derby.
Pochettino took charge of Spurs for 202 league matches during his successful five-year stint in north London – more than any other manager in their Premier League history. He will become the fifth former Tottenham boss to face them in the competition on Monday, after Martin Jol, Chris Hughton, Harry Redknapp and Tim Sherwood. Redknapp was the only one not to record a win against Spurs after leaving them.
In the dugout that Pochettino once frequented, Postecoglou has made the best-ever start by a Premier League manager across his first 10 games, leading Spurs to eight wins and two draws to ensure they entered Matchday 11 top of the table with 26 points. Only two managers have ever avoided defeat in their first 11 Premier League matches: Nottingham Forest’s Frank Clark in 1994 and Chelsea’s Maurizio Sarri in 2018, with the latter going 12 games without losing.
It’s fair to say Pochettino has found the going more difficult at Chelsea. The Blues suffered their fourth Premier League defeat of the season last week as west London rivals Brentford triumphed 2-0 at Stamford Bridge, with Ethan Pinnock heading in the opener before Bryan Mbeumo made certain of the result in stoppage time, capitalising on goalkeeper Robert Sánchez going up for a late corner.
Since the departure of Graham Potter in April, Chelsea’s return of just 18 points is fewer than all ever-present Premier League sides except Bournemouth, who have matched the Blues’ total. They did enjoy a successful EFL Cup outing on Wednesday, however, with returning defender Benoît Badiashile joining Raheem Sterling on the scoresheet in a 2-0 win over Blackburn Rovers.
Pochettino has called for fans to have patience, with Chelsea having named starting lineups with the third-youngest average age in the Premier League this season (24 years, 352 days), behind Burnley (24y, 170d) and Arsenal (24y, 335d).
Nine players aged 21 or younger have made their first Premier League appearance for the Blues this season – Lesley Ugochukwu, Malo Gusto, Levi Colwill, Ian Maatsen, Mason Burstow, Moisés Caicedo, Cole Palmer, Alex Matos and Deivid Washington – a record for any team through the first 10 games of a Premier League campaign.
Though Ben Chilwell and Christopher Nkunku are still sidelined, Chelsea have Reece James available again after their captain’s injury-hit start to 2023-24. Armando Broja and Mykhailo Mudryk may also feature against Spurs with the Blues’ injury crisis beginning to ease.
Tottenham, meanwhile, are looking to beat a third London rival in as many matches, having followed up a 2-0 victory over Fulham with a hard-fought 2-1 win at Crystal Palace on Matchday 10. Palace defender Joel Ward diverted James Maddison’s cross into his own net to put Spurs ahead before captain Son Heung-min converted from Brennan Johnson’s cut-back, making Jordan Ayew’s late volley a mere consolation.
Son has now scored in three successive Premier League London derbies, having also netted against Arsenal and Fulham this season. The South Korea star has eight goals in the competition this campaign, a tally only bettered by Manchester City’s Erling Haaland (11) going into Matchday 11.
After exiting the EFL Cup in August, Spurs will have waited 10 days between matches by the time kick-off comes around, having faced Palace on 27 October. Postecoglou will hope that period of rest has enabled Destiny Udogie to recover from an ankle injury, particularly as fellow left-back Ben Davies is also doubtful. Rodrigo Bentancur should be involved after making his return from the bench at Selhurst Park.
Monday’s match will see Spurs attempt to record five consecutive Premier League wins for the first time since December 2018, when Pochettino was in charge. Postecoglou, meanwhile, could become the first manager to win his first five home games in the Premier League since Craig Shakespeare did so with Leicester City in 2017.
Tottenham vs Chelsea Head-to-Head
Chelsea have historically had the edge over Tottenham in their Premier League meetings, but might the tide be starting to turn in this rivalry?
Tottenham beat Chelsea 2-0 when the teams last met in February, with Oliver Skipp and Harry Kane on target at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium.
That result ended Spurs’ 12-match winless run against Chelsea in all competitions. They now have the chance to record back-to-back league wins against the Blues for the first time since November 2018.
However, Chelsea have won 14 away Premier League games against Tottenham, a tally only bettered by Manchester United (15) in the competition’s history, and no team can match Chelsea’s tally of 51 away goals against Spurs in the history of the Premier League.
Overall, Chelsea have won 33 of their 62 all-time Premier League meetings with Tottenham (21 draws, eight defeats), scoring 110 goals in those matches and conceding 59.
Recent Form
Tottenham approach Monday’s fixture in buoyant mood, with their return of 26 points from 10 games making this their best start to a top-flight season since 1960-61, when they won their first 10 matches en route to a First Division and FA Cup double.
Chelsea, by contrast, have lost 15 Premier League games in 2023, only one fewer than they lost in 2021 and 2022 combined (16).
This is the most league defeats suffered by the Blues in a single calendar year since they also lost 15 games in 1994, while they last lost more in 1993 (20).
While Tottenham are looking to preserve their perfect home record under Postecoglou, Chelsea have actually picked up more points on their travels (seven) than they have at Stamford Bridge (five) this season.
Chelsea have won their last two Premier League games on the road, beating Fulham 2-0 and Burnley 4-1 prior to the October international break. They have lost three of their last four at home, going down to Nottingham Forest, Aston Villa and Brentford.
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system that assigns an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off on Monday, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
Tottenham vs Chelsea Prediction
Tottenham are favourites to maintain their flying start to 2023-24 on Monday, according to the Opta supercomputer. Across 10,000 pre-match simulations, the hosts were victorious in 42.5% of scenarios.
That does mean Pochettino is given more than a 50% chance of earning a result against his former club. Chelsea won 29% of our pre-match simulations, with 28.5% finishing level.
In our overall season predictions, Tottenham are now given a 64.6% chance of a top-four finish, though they only capture the Premier League title in 2.2% of the supercomputer’s simulations, less often than Man City (79.6%), Liverpool (10.7%) and Arsenal (7%).
Chelsea, meanwhile, only claim a top-four spot in 0.1% of our projections, with 11th (15.8%) seen as the Blues’ most likely position in the final league table.
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