We look ahead to Tuesday’s UEFA Champions League fixture at the Parc des Princes with our Paris Saint-Germain vs Newcastle United prediction and preview. Can the Magpies revive their ailing hopes of advancing from Group F?
PSG vs Newcastle: The Quick Hits
- The Opta supercomputer is predicting a home win on Tuesday, giving Paris Saint-Germain a 55.8% chance of victory. Newcastle United will be eliminated from the UEFA Champions League if they lose.
- Seven different Newcastle players have scored or assisted a goal in the Champions League this season (four scorers, three assisters). All seven did so in the reverse fixture against PSG.
- Kylian Mbappé has been involved in seven goals in 12 Champions League appearances against English clubs, scoring five and assisting two, but only one of his goals came at home.
Newcastle United’s long-awaited return to the UEFA Champions League was going so well when they followed up a Matchday 1 draw at AC Milan by thrashing Paris Saint-Germain 4-1 at St. James’ Park in early October. However, back-to-back defeats against Borussia Dortmund have left Eddie Howe’s men bottom of Group F, and a defeat from Tuesday’s trip to France will end their hopes of a last-16 spot.
Before their most recent European outing at Signal Iduna Park, the Opta supercomputer gave Newcastle a 54.4% chance of advancing from the group, but their 2-0 defeat to BVB – which came after a 1-0 loss to the same opponents on Tyneside – saw their hopes drop to 21.01%.
Amid an injury crisis affecting the likes of Callum Wilson, Jacob Murphy, Harvey Barnes and Joe Willock, Newcastle have failed to consistently carry their devastating attacking form in the Premier League onto the European stage. Only Manchester City (33) have bettered their 31 goals in the English top flight in 2023-24, but they have found the going tougher in the Champions League.
PSG are the only side Newcastle have scored against in their four Champions League games this season, while they have only attempted 16 shots across their two away trips in the group, generating a total of just 0.83 expected goals (xG) on goalless visits to Milan and Dortmund.
Newcastle were far more free-flowing on Saturday as they thrashed Mauricio Pochettino’s Chelsea 4-1 at St. James’ Park, with the returning Alexander Isak among the scorers after missing a month through injury. He is joint-first among all Premier League players for xG per 90 minutes this season (0.84, alongside Erling Haaland), with only teammate Wilson (68.9) and Haaland (79.6) averaging fewer minutes per goal than Isak’s 82.3 (minimum 270 mins played).
With a thigh injury keeping Wilson out again here, Isak will have to shoulder much of the attacking burden for his team. The likes of Dan Burn, Sven Botman, Matt Targett and the suspended Sandro Tonali also feature on a long list of Newcastle absentees.
Seven different Newcastle players recorded goal involvements in their memorable home win over PSG, with Miguel Almirón, Burn, Sean Longstaff and Fabian Schär on target while Bruno Guimarães, Kieran Trippier and Murphy posted assists. If Newcastle are to breathe fresh life into their Champions League hopes, they will need a similar team performance here.
PSG, meanwhile, enter MD 5 second in Group F with two wins and two defeats, with both victories coming in Paris and both losses arriving on the road. They will seal qualification with a game to spare if they win and Dortmund avoid defeat in Milan elsewhere on Tuesday.
Luis Enrique’s men squandered a lead last time out in Europe, with Milan Škriniar’s ninth-minute header not enough as Rafael Leão and Olivier Giroud struck in a 2-1 win for Milan at San Siro. Things have been more serene on the domestic front, however, with PSG making it six Ligue 1 victories in a row with Friday’s entertaining 5-2 triumph over Monaco.
That win saw Ousmane Dembélé open his account for the club with a ferocious right-footed finish, joining Gonçalo Ramos, Kylian Mbappé, Vitinha and Randal Kolo Muani on the scoresheet. Dembélé has completed more progressive carries of 10 or more metres (43) than any other player in the Champions League this season, also carrying the ball further upfield via carries (808 metres) than any other winger.
His teammate Mbappé, meanwhile, is looking to improve on his good record against English clubs in the Champions League, posting seven goal involvements (five goals, two assists) in his 12 such appearances. However, only one of his five goals has come in a home game, when he netted against Man City for Monaco in March 2017.
PSG’s star-studded lineup struggled with Newcastle’s intensity in the reverse fixture, but the Magpies should expect to face similar pressure in France. PSG have allowed opponents a competition-low seven open-play sequences of 10 or more passes in the Champions League this season, also permitting a tournament-low 8.5 passes per defensive action.
The hosts will be without long-term absentees Warren Zaïre-Emery, Presnel Kimpembe and Nuno Mendes, while captain Marquinhos will likely miss out with a hamstring problem.
PSG vs Newcastle Head-to-Head
Newcastle’s 4-1 rout of PSG on Matchday 2 – the teams’ only previous meeting – was the biggest Champions League win in the Magpies’ history. It was also the heaviest defeat PSG have suffered in their first meeting with a team in this competition since losing 3-0 to Chelsea in September 2004.
The Magpies could now become the first team to beat PSG home and away in a single Champions League group-stage campaign since CSKA Moscow did so in 2004-05.
However, Newcastle have a poor record in France, only winning one of their previous seven trips to the country in all European competitions (two draws, four defeats).
That victory came at Sochaux in the UEFA Cup in November 2004, with Lee Bowyer, Shola Ameobi, Craig Bellamy and Laurent Robert netting in a 4-0 win.
Tuesday’s hosts, though, traditionally struggle against English opponents, losing six of their last eight games against Premier League teams in the Champions League (two wins), including their last two against Man City (2-1 in 2021) and Newcastle. They have never previously lost three successive games against English clubs in UEFA competitions.
While PSG have been in fine form on the domestic front, they have lost two of their last three Champions League games and are looking to avoid back-to-back European losses here.
They haven’t lost consecutive group-stage matches in the same edition of this competition since September 2004, when Vahid Halilhodžić’s team were beaten on successive matchdays by Chelsea and CSKA Moscow.
Howe’s men are looking to avoid a third straight defeat on their travels across all competitions, and they have only won one of their last five away games since thrashing Sheffield United 8-0 in September (D2 L2), beating Manchester United 3-0 in the EFL Cup earlier this month.
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system that assigns an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off on Tuesday, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
PSG vs Newcastle Prediction
With Newcastle depleted by injuries and struggling for goals against Europe’s elite, Tuesday’s game could represent the end of the line for their Champions League dream.
Of 10,000 match simulations conducted by the supercomputer ahead of kick-off, PSG won 55.8%, while Newcastle triumphed in 22.2% of scenarios and 22% finished level.
In our overall Group F predictions, PSG are assigned a 71.5% chance of advancing to the last 16 and a 35% likelihood of topping the group. Newcastle only top the group in 5.4% of our simulations from here, finishing second in 15.6%.
PSG vs Newcastle UCL Squads
Paris Saint-Germain: Keylor Navas, Alexandre Letellier, Arnau Tenas, Gianluigi Donnarumma, Achraf Hakimi, Presnel Kimpembe, Marquinhos, Lucas Hernández, Nuno Mendes, Nordi Mukiele, Milan Škriniar, Manuel Ugarte, Fabián Ruiz, Danilo, Vitinha, Kang-in Lee, Carlos Soler, Warren Zaïre-Emery, Ethan Mbappé, Kylian Mbappé, Gonçalo Ramos, Ousmane Dembélé, Marco Asensio, Randal Kolo Muani, Bradley Barcola.
Head Coach: Luis Enrique
Newcastle United: Martin Dúbravka, Loris Karius, Nick Pope, Kieran Trippier, Paul Dummett, Sven Botman, Fabian Schär, Jamaal Lascelles, Matt Targett, Tino Livramento, Dan Burn, Sandro Tonali, Harvey Barnes, Lewis Hall, Miguel Almirón, Sean Longstaff, Bruno Guimarães, Joelinton, Callum Wilson, Anthony Gordon, Alexander Isak, Jacob Murphy, Joe Willock.
Head Coach: Eddie Howe