The Super Bowl rematch is upon us, and 10 months hasn’t changed much atop the otherwise ever-changing NFL. Our predictive model has the Kansas City Chiefs and the Philadelphia Eagles as the most likely teams to return to the biggest stage in sports, but what does it say about their matchup on Monday Night Football? For that, some serious AFC North action and 11 other games, let’s wade into our data-driven Week 11 NFL predictions.
Each NFL week throughout the 2023 season, the supercomputer has something to say about every game. No matter if it’s a headliner or a game we may be less excited about, it unsentimentally beeps its way through the model’s NFL picks, boldly dropping score predictions for each.
Week 11 begins Thursday with the Baltimore Ravens hosting the Cincinnati Bengals, and it ends Monday with Eagles-Chiefs. For those games and everything between, we’ve taken plenty of data – advanced and historical – and pumped it through our predictive model. Keep in mind this model uses our data only and nothing from the sports betting market to produce score projections, so there can be slight discrepancies in scores when considered against the percentages of our win probability model found elsewhere. These scores consider team news as of Wednesday. For those games close enough to be projected as ties, we outline at the bottom of this piece which of those teams have a slight edge in win probability.
The AFC North is the most interesting land in the NFL landscape, in part because the Browns brought the Ravens back to reality last week. The Bengals enter this week with the lowest chance of making the playoffs in the division, but those chances still stand at nearly one in four (23.2%) as easily the highest for a last-place team in the NFL. Those chances will be on the rise if they’re able to bring the Ravens down to their four-loss level, but the supercomputer likes the Ravens by a touchdown (27-20).
The division’s other two teams are both looking for a third straight win, but the model doesn’t see this as a particularly close game either with the Browns as seven-point home favorites over the Steelers. Should the Browns get that win, they’ll match their total from last season (7-10). The only time Cleveland has started a season with seven wins in its first 10 games this century was 2020 when they finished the regular season with a win over the Steelers before beginning the playoffs with another victory over their division rivals.
Rewind to early October, and two of the NFL’s most interesting teams were certainly not the Minnesota Vikings and Denver Broncos. Now, one has won five straight despite losing perhaps their two most important offensive players in Justin Jefferson and Kirk Cousins, and the other has strung together victories over the Chiefs and Bills to get back within a game of .500. It’ll end for one on Sunday, and despite the increasingly positive story around Joshua Dobbs, the predictor thinks it’ll be the Broncos that win this one by a 23-20 score.
And finally, Monday night: This will be the seventh Super Bowl rematch in the following season all-time. The team that won the Super Bowl has gone 5-1 in the rematches, with the 1993 Bills the only team to lose a Super Bowl the previous season and then beat the team they lost to (the Cowboys) the following year. The model has this one even closer than Super Bowl LVII and is sticking with history by making the Chiefs two-point favorites in a lower-scoring affair (23-21), but that doesn’t mean they’re Super Bowl favorites:
Here are the scores for all 14 Week 11 games, including Josh Allen and the Bills getting back on track, while C.J. Stroud outduels Kyler Murray in his second game back:
Week 11 NFL Picks and Predicted Scores
- Baltimore Ravens 27, Cincinnati Bengals 20
- Dallas Cowboys 27, Carolina Panthers 17
- Cleveland Browns 21, Pittsburgh Steelers 14
- Detroit Lions 27, Chicago Bears 20
- Houston Texans 27, Arizona Cardinals 21
- Miami Dolphins 24, Las Vegas Raiders 23
- Washington Commanders 21, New York Giants 17
- Los Angeles Chargers 24, Green Bay Packers 20
- Jacksonville Jaguars 23, Tennessee Titans 17
- San Francisco 49ers 23, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17
- Buffalo Bills 24, New York Jets 17
- Seattle Seahawks 23, Los Angeles Rams 23 (Win probability weighted by the moneyline gives the Seahawks a slight advantage)
- Denver Broncos 23, Minnesota Vikings 20
- Kansas City Chiefs 23, Philadelphia Eagles 21
Week 11 byes:
- Atlanta Falcons, Indianapolis Colts, New England Patriots, New Orleans Saints
We’ll be back next week when three Thanksgiving games take center stage with a classic matchup between the Lions and Packers followed by Dallas-Washington and Seattle-San Francisco.