After being hit with a 10-point deduction for financial breaches, we fired up the Opta supercomputer to see what it means for Everton’s chances of staying up.

Everton have been deducted 10 points by the Premier League for being found in breach of their Profitability and Sustainability Rules (PSR).

The decision was announced on Friday by the Premier League in a statement, with Everton saying they are “shocked and disappointed” by the outcome.

It comes into effect immediately, though Everton can appeal, and means Sean Dyche’s men go from 14 points to just four, sending them from 14th place down to 19th in the table, level on points with bottom-placed Burnley.

The Premier League’s statement read: “Following a five-day hearing last month, the Commission determined that Everton FC’s PSR Calculation for the relevant period resulted in a loss of £124.5 million, as contended by the Premier League, which exceeded the threshold of £105m permitted under the PSRs. The Commission concluded that a sporting sanction in the form of a 10-point deduction should be imposed. That sanction has immediate effect.”

The club responded with a statement of their own on Friday, which said: “Everton Football Club is both shocked and disappointed by the ruling of the Premier League’s Commission.

“The club believes that the Commission has imposed a wholly disproportionate and unjust sporting sanction. The club has already communicated its intention to appeal the decision to the Premier League. The appeal process will now commence and the club’s case will be heard by an appeal board appointed pursuant to the Premier League’s rules in due course.”

It’s a big blow for Everton though in some sense it has arguably come at the right time for them. They only stayed up by two points last season, but despite a slow start to the 2023-24 campaign, have won four of their last seven. Prior to the points deduction they were eight points clear of the relegation zone.

But what has it done to their predicted finish? We’ve asked the Opta supercomputer to take another look at things to see how this might impact their survival hopes.

Before the points deduction, Everton were judged to have just a 3.5% likelihood of going down. That’s now gone up to 34.1%. It puts them ahead of Bournemouth (29.4%) but below the trio of Burnley (80.6%), Sheffield United (78.0%) and Luton Town (70.0%).

Relegation probability Nov 23

Historically, Everton are well placed to survive even if their appeal is rejected. They are the only club in Premier League history to have had as few as four points after 12 games of a season and survived relegation; that occurred in the 1994-95 season, though it should be pointed out it was a 42-game season, so they did have four more games to get the points required.

Queens Park Rangers finished 20th in 2012-13 after being on four points from 12 matches, while Sheffield United also finished bottom in 2020-21, though they had just a solitary point after 12 outings.

You could argue that gives Burnley hope too, but it must be remembered the Clarets have four points from 12 games on merit. Everton have performed well in recent weeks and you therefore can’t really compare them to teams who had this few points at this stage of a season without a points deduction.

4 points relegated table

There’s also the fact this is the first Premier League season when as many as three clubs have failed to win at least seven points from their opening 12 games of a season. The fabled 40-point target to stay up is likely to be significantly lower in 2023-24.

Speaking of which, should they survive, Everton would be the first team in Premier League history to do so after receiving a points deduction. Middlesbrough went down in the 1996-97 campaign following a three-point punishment from the Premier League after they refused to play a game against Blackburn Rovers, claiming they had too many injuries.

The only other team to have points taken away were Portsmouth in 2009-10 after they entered administration. They were docked nine points and finished bottom, though they would have done so without their points deduction, finishing 11 points behind fellow relegated sides Hull City and Burnley.

It is a blow for Everton, but if the supercomputer is to be believed, it shouldn’t be too much cause for concern as far as Premier League survival goes.

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