Two sides in contrasting league form clash in the Premier League at the Gtech Community Stadium on Saturday. We look ahead with our Brentford vs West Ham prediction and preview.
Brentford vs West Ham: The Quick Hits
- Brentford (45.1%) are predicted to take three points when they welcome West Ham (26.7%) on Saturday, according to the Opta supercomputer.
- Brentford have won all four of their Premier League games against West Ham, scoring twice in each match and keeping three clean sheets.
- Jarrod Bowen has scored in all five of West Ham’s Premier League away games this season. He could become the first player in the competition’s history to score in his side’s first six away games of a campaign, while he would also be the first West Ham player to score in six straight away appearances.
Match Preview
Brentford will bid to continue their Premier League winning streak on Saturday when they host a West Ham side licking their wounds after a poor recent spell.
Following a six-game winless run in the Premier League (three draws, three defeats), Brentford have won their last two by an aggregate score of 5-0 – they have never won three in a row without conceding in the competition, a feat they would love to accomplish this weekend.
In contrast, having earned 10 of a possible 12 points from their first four Premier League games this season, West Ham have since taken just four from their last 18 available to them. Their only win in this run was at home to bottom side Sheffield United.
The recent disparity in form means Thomas Frank’s men head into this weekend in 10th, a point and a place behind the Hammers, and a win on Saturday will move Brentford above David Moyes’ side.
Brentford’s last outing was a 2-0 victory away at rivals Chelsea, their third straight win at Stamford Bridge and the latest in a string of impressive results in London derbies. They are now unbeaten in their last 13 Premier League matches against teams also from the capital, and only Arsenal (1.83) and Chelsea (1.79) average more points per game in Premier League London derbies than the Bees (1.65).
This is another area where Brentford could have the upper hand come kick-off on Saturday, with West Ham holding the unwanted record of losing more Premier League London derbies than any other side (119), losing eight of their last nine such matches away from home.
The long-term suspension of Ivan Toney because of betting breaches left big boots to fill after scoring 20 league goals last season, but Bryan Mbeumo has mitigated some of that loss for Brentford, both scoring and assisting in his last two Premier League games.
No player has managed to both score and assist in more different Premier League games than Mbeumo (four) since the start of last season, and with Toney’s ban not over until January, the Cameroon international will have to continue coming up big for his team.
Mbeumo has stepped up in the absence of not only Toney, but also the likes of Kevin Schade and Keane Lewis-Potter, both of whom have been out of the lineup with injury of late and not ready to return for Saturday’s game. The same goes for Mikkel Damsgaard and Josh Dasilva, though Shandon Baptiste could play some part having had valuable minutes for Brentford B in midweek after a spell out with a dislocated shoulder. Rico Henry will not be back until next season after suffering a serious knee injury in September.
West Ham came through their EFL Cup win over Arsenal in midweek unscathed, though they will be missing a couple of key men in Lucas Paqueta and Edson Alvarez for Saturday’s game, both suspended for picking up a fifth yellow card in the 1-0 home defeat to Everton last weekend.
Brentford vs West Ham Head-to-Head
Brentford’s four Premier League wins against West Ham are the only previous top-flight meetings between the two sides. In English top division history, only three teams have a better 100% win rate against an opponent – Manchester City vs Bournemouth (12, who also play on Saturday), Arsenal vs Reading (six) and Nottingham Forest vs Portsmouth (six).
West Ham are winless in their last four away league games against Brentford since a 4-1 win in the second tier in March 1953, and have failed to score in the last three such meetings, though they did win 1-0 away at the Bees in the FA Cup last season.
The last game between the sides was back in May, Brentford running out 2-0 winners thanks to goals from Bryan Mbeumo and Yoane Wissa, a victory that secured the Bees’ first top-half finish in the top-flight since 1938.
Recent Form
Brentford’s back-to-back league victories against Burnley and then Chelsea were preceded by a run of three defeats in four, though two of those losses came against Newcastle United and Manchester United, sides predicted to finish above the Bees in the league table according to Opta’s 10,000 simulations for the season.
Following last weekend, West Ham had lost three games in a row in all competitions, beaten by Aston Villa and Everton in the league while also coming out of the wrong end of the result against Olympiakos in the Europa League. They did get back to winning ways on Wednesday though, beating Arsenal 3-1 in the EFL Cup fourth round at London Stadium.
Saturday’s fixture should have Bryan Mbeumo champing at the bit, involved in 11 goals in his last nine Premier League London derbies, scoring eight and assisting three. Since the start of last season, only Arsenal’s Bukayo Saka (13) can better Mbeumo’s impressive 11 goal involvements in such games.
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system that assigns an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off this weekend, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
Brentford vs West Ham Prediction
The Opta supercomputer is predicting Brentford to come out of Saturday’s game with all three points, beating West Ham in 45.1% of the 10,000 simulations conducted ahead of Matchday 11.
Moyes’ men are given a 26.7% chance of picking up a third away victory of the league campaign while 28.2% of the simulations had the match finishing level.
According to the Opta supercomputer’s 10,000 simulations of the season, West Ham and Brentford are estimated to finish ninth and 10th respectively. The Hammers are given slightly more chance of challenging for Europe, finishing in the top six in 1.76% of simulations compared to 1.28% for the Bees.
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