The field for the 54th edition of the 2023 ATP Finals is set, with eight of the world’s best players heading to Turin for the year-end championships.
The stakes are massive with a record $15 million in prize money up for grabs. What’s more, an undefeated champion will earn 1,500 ranking points and take home more than $4.8m, the largest prize pot for an individual player in the history of tennis.
Ahead of the finals, the Opta supercomputer has been hard at work and has calculated its group stage, tournament and ranking predictions.
Let’s dive in.
ATP Finals Predictions: The Quick Hits
- Novak Djokovic is almost certain to end the year as world No. 1 (99.7% chance). He would finish as world No. 1 for the eighth time in his career.
- Djokovic (33%) is also the strong favourite to win the title in Turin.
- Jannik Sinner, the young Italian, is our model’s second favourite (16%) to win the title on home soil.
- Carlos Alcaraz and Daniil Medvedev are the two most likely players to qualify for the semi-finals from the Red Group.
Group Stage Predictions
The format of the tournament is very simple. The eight players are divided into two round-robin groups of four. The top two players in each group advance to the semi-finals.
In the Green Group, Djokovic and Sinner are the two big favourites to make the semi-finals with a 76.6% and 60.6% likelihood of doing so respectively. Djokovic, who went undefeated in the group stage last year, won the Green group in 48% of all our model’s simulations.
In the Red Group, Alcaraz is the favourite to advance to the semi-finals (59.3%). Medvedev, who won the title in 2020, made the final in 2021 but did not win a single match in last year’s edition. He is the second most likely player to make the knockout stages (53.9%) from the Red Group.
Let’s look beyond the group stage and towards the knockouts.
The supercomputer expects the top two in each group to punch their card into the last four. Of those four, Djokovic is our big favourite to win the tournament overall (33%).
Djokovic currently shares the record for ATP Finals titles (six) with the now-retired Roger Federer, so a second straight triumph in Turin would put the 24-time major winner out in front of his former rival. He would extend his own record as the oldest ATP Finals winner to 36 years old.
Up next in the predictions is Sinner. He has a 33% chance to make the final and a 16% shot of going all the way. The Italian is looking to become the first player to win the ATP Finals on home soil since Andy Murray won in London in 2016.
Alcaraz’s rise to superstardom has been incredible, but this will be his first appearance at the ATP Finals after he missed last year’s tournament due to injury. He’s our third favourite to win it all at 15%.
Two-time ATP Finals champion Alexander Zverev has a 7% likelihood of winning, while one-time winners Medvedev and Tsitsipas have a 12% and 5% probability respectively.
Finally, we simulated what each player’s ranking would be at the end of the tournament based on their expected results. For example, if a player was to win the tournament while going undefeated in the group stage, they’d win 1,500 points.
Let’s take a look at the predicted rankings.
There is a very slight possibility that Alcaraz surpasses Djokovic as the world No. 1 come the end of the year. For that to happen, the young Spaniard would need to win the tournament without losing a single game, and Djokovic would need to lose all his matches. It’s safe to say the scenario is unlikely, with the supercomputer estimating there’s just a 0.3% chance that occurs. Djokovic is therefore almost certain to end the year as world No. for the eighth time in his career.
Current world No. 10 Holger Rune is guaranteed to go up in the rankings, while No. 8 Zverev has a 71.2% likelihood of also doing so. The rest of the field is expected to maintain their current positions.