Two teams looking to extend their Premier League unbeaten runs do battle at Molineux on Saturday. We look ahead with our data-powered Wolves vs Newcastle prediction and preview.
Wolves vs Newcastle: Quick Hits
- Newcastle United (39.9 %) are predicted to come away from Molineux with all three points against Wolves (30.5%) according to the Opta supercomputer.
- In the Premier League this season, Newcastle have scored the most goals (24), have the highest xG (19.9), the highest shot conversion rate (18.9%), the most big chances (37) and the highest big chance conversion (54.1%).
- Callum Wilson is averaging a goal every 66 minutes in the Premier League this season (five goals in 330 minutes), the best rate of any player to have played at least 90 minutes so far.
Match Preview
Newcastle United will look to make it six Premier League games unbeaten on Saturday when they travel to Molineux to take on a Wolves side looking to extend their own undefeated streak.
Newcastle’s run of four victories in their last five Premier League games (plus a draw at West Ham), all of which have seen them keep a clean sheet, was immediately preceded by three straight league defeats, following a resounding opening-day win over Aston Villa. However, the opposition in those losses were Manchester City, Liverpool and Brighton, all teams predicted to finish in the Premier League’s top seven according to the Opta supercomputer’s 10,000 simulations of this season.
Howe’s men were in European action on Wednesday, suffering their first Champions League defeat of the campaign as they were beaten 1-0 by Borussia Dortmund at St. James’ Park. They are currently unbeaten in Premier League games that come the weekend after their continental exploits, including a club record-equalling 8-0 win at Sheffield United that followed their 0-0 draw with Milan at San Siro in September. They face a tough run of games now, though, with Manchester United coming up in the League Cup in midweek, followed by Arsenal in the Premier League next weekend and then a Champions League trip to Borussia Dortmund.
Both Newcastle and Wolves have scored in 15 of the 16 Premier League meetings between the sides, the exception coming in a 1-0 win for the Magpies in April 2022 when Chris Wood scored the winner from the spot. Six of Newcastle’s eight Premier League away games at Wolves have ended 1-1, while the other two both finished 2-1 – in Newcastle’s favour in October 2011 and Wolves’ in October 2021.
A run of four Premier League games without defeat has put Gary O’Neil’s Wolves 12th in the league table, seven points above the bottom three. The latest outing in that run saw Sasa Kalajdzic net an 88th-minute winner to secure a 2-1 triumph at Bournemouth last weekend, a particularly sweet victory for O’Neil after the Cherries sacked him as manager prior to this season despite keeping them up last term in improbable circumstances.
Pedro Neto has been a star for O’Neil and Wolves this term, already on six Premier League assists, matching his previous best creative season in the competition (2020-21) after just nine games. Only four Wolves players have ever provided more assists in a single campaign with Adama Traoré the most recent, recording nine in 2019-20.
This new season has reignited Neto’s career after registering just two league goal involvements in the entire 2022-23 campaign, and it could prove tricky for Wolves to keep hold of him should he keep up his strong start.
Despite his team’s solid opening to the season, O’Neil will be desperate for his side to come out of the blocks quicker from kick-off, something Wolves have struggled with so far. Only Crystal Palace have fewer first-half goals in both total (one) and as a percentage of their total goals (14%) than Wolves (two, 18%) in the Premier League this season. That could prove to be a particular downfall against Newcastle, who have scored more goals in the opening 45 minutes than any other team (10).
Wednesday’s Champions League defeat was a bruising one for Newcastle, with both Alexander Isak and Jacob Murphy forced off with injuries. It remains to be seen how long they will be out of the lineup, if at all, but losing both would be a big blow with Harvey Barnes and Sven Botman already in the treatment room, the former not expected back until 2024.
O’Neil is boosted by the return of Mario Lemina and Nélson Semedo after both served suspensions against Bournemouth, while Hugo Bueno is not expected to be ready having missed the last five matches with a hamstring injury. Jean-Ricner Bellegarde could be available having been absent for four games through a combination of suspension and injury.
Wolves vs Newcastle Head-to-Head
The draw has been the most common outcome in this fixture in recent times, with 10 of the 16 Premier League meetings between the sides ending with the shares spoiled.
Draws aside, Newcastle have just about edged the other six Premier League clashes, taking four victories compared to just two for Wolves, with the Magpies winning two of the last three games between the sides.
Howe’s men picked up the three points the last time they played Wolves, Miguel Almirón scoring a 79th-minute winner at St. James’ Park back in March to end a six-match winless run in all competitions and spark their push to finish in the Champions League places.
Recent Form
Wolves are unbeaten in their last four Premier League games, their longest run without defeat since January 2022 (five matches), and they have taken more points from those four outings (eight) than they had in their previous 10 (seven). They have beaten Man City and drawn with Aston Villa in their last two home games.
Newcastle, meanwhile, have picked up 13 points from a possible 15 over their last five league games, a return that leaves them heading into Matchday 10 in sixth, four points off the Champions League places. They have scored two or more times in their last four matches and are on course to net 101 goals this season at an average of 2.67 per game.
Kieran Trippier has been a big reason for his team’s prolific form, after he became the first Newcastle player to provide an assist in four consecutive Premier League appearances. There are 11 instances (from 10 different players) of a player assisting in five or more consecutive games, and if 33-year-old Trippier does so here against Wolves, he would be the second oldest after Gianfranco Zola in 2002 (36).
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system that assigns an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
Wolves vs Newcastle Prediction
The Opta supercomputer is backing Newcastle to leave Molineux with all three points on Saturday, with the Magpies winning 39.9% of the 10,000 simulations ahead of the weekend.
Wolves are given a 30.5% chance of picking up just their second home Premier League win of the season to further move them away from the bottom three, while the teams end up sharing the spoils in 29.6% of simulations.
Newcastle have ambitions of finishing in the Champions League places again after last season’s heroics, with Opta’s supercomputer giving them a 39.13% chance of doing so, though their most likely finish is fifth. Wolves are expected to finish safely in mid-table, relegated in just 1.52% of Opta’s 10,000 simulations of the season. Their most likely finish is 13th, two places above Opta’s pre-season prediction of 15th.
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