It begins Thursday with the Commanders hosting the winless Bears, and it ends Monday with the Packers visiting Las Vegas. For those games and everything between, we’ve taken plenty of data, pumped it through our predictive model and come up with NFL Week 5 predictions down to the projected scores.
Each week throughout the 2023 NFL season, the supercomputer has something to say about every game. No matter if it’s a headliner like the Cowboys visiting the 49ers or a game we may be a bit less excited about, it unsentimentally beeps its way through the model’s NFL picks, boldly dropping score predictions for each.
We’ll start with that NFC headliner because in all honesty there isn’t a game that comes close to it this week. In fact, the only Week 5 matchup to feature two teams with winning records is the Sunday night game with the 49ers hosting the Cowboys. San Francisco knocked Dallas out of the playoffs last season and in 2021, but Jerry Jones will be happy with this projected scoreline: 21-20 Cowboys.
The Colts currently have the best chance of winning the AFC South according to our season-long playoff predictions at 38.7%. They will host a fellow AFC South team, Tennessee, as Indy will look to end a four-game home losing streak to the Titans. And we’re favoring the Colts by a touchdown with a 24-17 victory on Sunday.
Over in the AFC North, the last six games between the Ravens and Steelers have all been close with no game being decided by more than five points. And our projections for this week are showing the game entering OT at 23 points each, though that could tip one way or the other as the week goes on depending on the status of Kenny Pickett. If you need to pick one of those teams, our win probability model also incorporates the point spread of the betting market, and that gives Lamar Jackson and the Ravens a slight edge.
For our fantasy projections, Jalen Hurts is the top-ranked quarterback for this weekend’s games, anticipating 24.3 points in standard scoring for the Philadelphia QB. Hurts is a big factor in why we predict no team will score more points than the Eagles this week. We see them remaining undefeated and getting to 5-0 for the second straight season with a win over the Rams. 28-21 Eagles.
If you’d asked some optimistic northerners ahead of the season, they might have pegged this week’s matchup between the Minnesota Vikings and Kansas City Chiefs as a Super Bowl preview. The Vikings are 1-3 but can make their fans believe again with a win this weekend. The Chiefs struggled with the Jets last week as the game wore on and have really only had their offense in high gear once this season. This is shaping up to be another close game with the Chiefs projected to win 24-23.
Our score predictions have the highest scoring game of Week 5 as the Monday Night Football clash between the Packers and Raiders. Green Bay has won eight straight in the matchup, but we like Davante Adams to beat his former team 27-24 at home.
Here’s a look at all 14 NFL Week 5 predictions, with Joe Burrow and the Bengals getting back on track, Justin Fields and the Bears losing again, and C.J. Stroud and the Texans getting to three wins against the Falcons:
NFL Week 5 Predicted Scores
Thursday night:
- Washington Commanders 21, Chicago Bears 17
Sunday:
- Buffalo Bills 27, Jacksonville Jaguars 20
- Indianapolis Colts 24, Tennessee Titans 17
- Houston Texans 23, Atlanta Falcons 21
- Detroit Lions 24, Carolina Panthers 14
- Baltimore Ravens 23, Pittsburgh Steelers 23 (Win probability weighted by the point spread gives the Ravens an advantage)
- New England Patriots 21, New Orleans Saints 21 (Win probability weighted by the point spread gives the Patriots an advantage)
- Miami Dolphins 28, New York Giants 20
- Philadelphia Eagles 28, Los Angeles Rams 21
- Cincinnati Bengals 23, Arizona Cardinals 20
- Denver Broncos 23, New York Jets 17
- Kansas City Chiefs 24, Minnesota Vikings 23
Sunday night:
- Dallas Cowboys 21, San Francisco 49ers 20
Monday night:
- Las Vegas Raiders 27, Green Bay Packers 24
Week 5 Byes: Cleveland Browns, Los Angeles Chargers, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Seattle Seahawks
Don’t forget to check out every team’s chances at making the playoffs and winning the Super Bowl this season in our season-long predictions. We also have weekly fantasy projections and rankings, then use our sit/start comparison tool to help you with your lineup decisions.
We’ll be back next week, when some of you may be interested in whether the Browns defense can keep the 49ers offense in check, others compelled by the NFL West meeting between the Cardinals and the Rams. The supercomputer won’t judge. It only predicts.